“I think to say that global trade is facing its most severe disruption in 80 years is perhaps the understatement of the century.” That’s a significant statement for anyone, let alone Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization. she warned Fortune Global Forum In Riyadh, the global economy is in the midst of its most tumultuous period since the 1930s, no small feat considering that decade saw the Great Depression and the outbreak of World War II, with the Great Recession of 2008 still fresh in people’s memories.
Nonetheless, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, a Nigerian economist, the first woman and first African to serve as director-general of the World Trade Organization, insists what is happening is not a repeat of the dark decade of the early 20th century. “It’s working,” Dr. Okonjo-Iweala said of trade, but it’s not working the way it used to. That comes as President Donald Trump suddenly imposed several changes to world trade that reflected what he saw as flaws in the system. “I think a lot of the criticism that the United States has leveled at the system is valid,” the former Nigerian minister said, urging viewers to use the opportunity to pursue broader reforms.
Speaking amid wide-ranging discussion on future of global trading system wealthSpeaking at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, Ellie Austin’s Dr Okonjo-Iweala argued that the WTO-led framework has shown surprising resilience despite rising tariffs, broken supply chains and a resurgence of economic nationalism. “Before the current wave of tariff disputes, about 80% of global trade operated under the WTO’s most-favored-nation rules,” she said, noting that had fallen to about 72%, “but importantly, the system still works.”
Surprised and satisfied with resilience
Dr Okonjo-Iweala acknowledged that the scale of the destruction was comparable to the protectionist spiral between the two world wars, but stressed that key differences prevented history from repeating itself. “What we are seeing now is the fact that we have spoken to member states to avoid tit-for-tat,” she said, referring to an escalating cycle of protectionism and tariff barriers between economies. She added that most WTO members had not done so. “I’m very proud of them… They’re still dealing with themselves, mostly within WTO rules.”
Although the United States, which accounts for nearly 30% of global imports, challenges existing trade rules and bypasses dispute settlement mechanisms, the Director-General stressed that the WTO framework remains indispensable. The U.S. may operate differently, she said, but 87 percent of world trade is still governed by WTO rules. “We are surprised and delighted at the resilience of the system.”
The Director-General outlined an ambitious reform agenda to restore confidence in global governance. Central to her proposal is modernizing the WTO’s consensus decision-making process, which requires the unanimous consent of all 166 members. Unanimity sounds noble, she said, “but sometimes you really get stuck.” She said the answer is simple but difficult: “Members have to work through this. Okay? It’s up to them to find the answer.”
She added that greater transparency in subsidy and trade reporting was crucial. “If you don’t have a level playing field and practices are seen as unfair, that really undermines the system,” she said.
New ductwork?
The director-general likened the WTO’s role to a “pipeline” for the global economy – “you don’t think about it until the pipe bursts.” She said often-overlooked standards, from intellectual property protection to rules for valuing goods across borders, maintained trillions of dollars in trade every year.
She also highlighted the extent to which many smaller economies rely on rules-based trade: 142 of the 166 member states, whose trade-to-GDP ratio exceeds 50%, “are really dependent on trade and need rules. You can’t have an agreement with every country, so you need multilateral rules and levels and systems that provide stability and predictability.”
Turning to the future, Dr Okonjo-Iweala said the next wave of reforms must address the rapid expansion of digital and artificial intelligence-driven business. Last year, about 40% of global trade involved AI-related goods, such as semiconductors, telecommunications and advanced computing. Digitally delivered services alone are worth nearly $5 trillion and are growing at 8% annually, twice the rate of trade in goods.
She continued that AI has the potential to significantly reduce trade costs while changing the nature of goods and services exchanged. This shift requires new pipelines or new global rules. To this end, the WTO has convened a group of nearly 70 members to negotiate a landmark e-commerce agreement, the first of its kind, with the first phase expected to be held at the ministerial level in March 2026.
Despite the uncertainty, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala sees the current crisis as a key opportunity for recovery. “In every crisis, there is always opportunity,” she said, seeming to suggest that the world is ripe for laying new pipelines beneath the surface. So it’s reassuring that there’s no repeat of the 1930s, such as demolishing buildings, but reconnecting the pipes of the world’s economies could take some time and be very expensive.