Despite the promise of the Paris Agreement, countries have repeatedly ‘missed the target’ on climate goals, the United Nations has warned.
Global climate commitments are on the verge of being limited Global warming Up to 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, the United Nations has warned, is far below what is needed to combat the climate crisis despite many pledges.
In its annual Emissions Gap Report on Tuesday, the UN Environment Program (UNEP) said it was “very likely” the world would exceed levels of 1.5C (2.7F) – the internationally agreed target under the Paris Agreement – in the next decade.
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If countries do as promised in their climate action plans, the planet could rise by 2.3 to 2.5C (4.1 to 4.5F) by 2100, the report said. However, under current policies, Earth is expected to be 2.8C (5F) warmer over that period.
“Nations have tried three times to meet the promises made under the Paris Agreement and each time they have fallen short of the target,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
“While national climate plans have made some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, so we still need unprecedented emissions reductions in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”
The findings come just days before world leaders gather in Brazil for a United Nations climate conference. COP30Where the global failure so far to deal with the crisis will be magnified.
Global emissions in 2024 are set to rise 2.3 percent from the previous year, with India behind China, Russia and Indonesia, a report found on Tuesday.
But among the wealthy and powerful Group of 20 (G20) economies, which account for three-quarters of global emissions and are among the six biggest polluters, the European Union cut greenhouse gas emissions last year.
Meanwhile, the United States under President Donald Trump has walked away from its climate commitments and Planned retreat of the country The Paris Agreement will become official early next year.
The Trump administration’s policies, which range from rolling back Environmental regulations A tenth of a degree of warming would be added to hamper green energy projects, UNEP said in its report.
The US agency also said the rest of the world would need to cut an additional two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year to offset what the report projects is increasing US carbon pollution.
‘Every tenth of a degree’ is important
Scientists widely agree that warming of more than 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial times poses a risk. Catastrophic consequencesAnd every effort must be made to stick as close to that safe threshold as possible.
At 1.4C (2.5F) above pre-industrial times, the Earth is already too warm for most tropical coral reefs to survive, while ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest could suffer severe and lasting changes below 2C (3.6F), with effects across the planet.
“Every tenth degree affects communities, ecosystems around the world,” said Adele Thomas, vice-chair of a separate UN scientific panel that calculates climate impacts.
“It is especially important for that Vulnerable communities And the ecosystem that’s already being affected,” she told the Associated Press news agency.
“It has significance Heat waves. It is important in ocean heat waves and the destruction of coral reefs. When we think about sea level rise, that’s important in the long term.”
In its report, the UN said only 60 parties to the Paris Agreement – accounting for 63 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions – submitted or announced new mitigation targets for 2035 by the September deadline.
He urged world leaders to make “decisive, accelerated” cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the projected overshoot of 1.5C (2.7F).
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot of more than 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting in the early 2030s, at the latest. And the path to a livable future will become steeper by the day,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement on the report.
“But this is not a reason to surrender. It is a reason to step forward and accelerate. Reaching 1.5 degrees by the end of the century will remain our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we raise our ambitions meaningfully.”