while intensifying Protests in IranThe weight of the richest man in the world.
On January 4, Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of social media platform X, responded to a post by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying “we will not give up to the enemy” in Farsi, suggesting he was delusional.
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Then, on Saturday, Musk’s Platform X changed the Iranian flag emoji on the site from one used after the Islamic revolution in 1979 to include a lion and sun in the pre-revolutionary flag.
Some demonstrators inside and outside Iran have waved the pre-1979 flag in protest against the current regime.
Musk’s moves have drawn some support from critics of the regime in Tehran. However, analysts debate the extent to which such moves could affect Iran on the ground.
What is behind the movement?
Protests started in Iran from December 28 due to rising inflation in the country. They have since spread to more than 100 cities and towns and are now taking place in every province of the country.
“The focus of the ban is on state and country governance because political, economic, social, cultural or even environmental policies are not working (for the protesters),” Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera. “Economics, however, was the beginning of it.”
There are many protesters calling for an end to the rule of the country’s ayatollahs, who took over with their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after the 1979 revolution.
Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, has led the country since 1989. And while his regime has survived several waves of unrest, including the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” protests, some analysts believe the latest protests are one of the biggest challenges his regime has faced.
“The Trump administration’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions in 2018 — and the failure to reach a new deal with Iran last year — has crippled the economy and fueled corruption, fueling a short-term sanctions flare-up,” said Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and the Stimson Center at Washington International University.
“It has dealt serious blows to Iran’s regional allies since October 7, 2023, the Israeli and US attacks last summer, and it is difficult to see a way out.”
The Iranian regime has imposed an internet blackout in the country since Thursday, although some videos have still managed to circulate online of masked protesters clashing with security forces in Iranian cities.
The semi-governmental news agency Tasnim reported on Sunday that the number of security personnel killed had risen to 109. Opposition activists say the death toll is high and includes dozens of protesters.
Al Jazeera cannot independently verify the figures coming out of Iran.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene if authorities kill more protesters.
Enter Elon
Musk, a longtime tech mogul who has led US government-backed companies including Tesla and SpaceX, Left the role With the Trump administration, where he headed the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in late May.
Although Musk’s work with DOGE was widely criticized, he also purchased the social media platform X and Outspoken support for apartheid policies It has also attracted widespread protests in recent years.
Today, Musk focuses more on his private businesses, though he occasionally dabbles in politics, particularly to push right-wing conspiracy theories.white genocide” and immigration.
For Iran, during the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” protests and again in 2025 12-Day War — which killed 610 people in Iran and more than 28 in Israel — Musk provided Internet access to the country’s people through his Starlink satellite service.
Iran has jammed Starlink signals amid the latest protests.
“The state uses internet disruptions and shutdowns to prevent further gathering of protesters and prevent communication between protest groups and the spread of news,” Mortazawi said.
“When the internet comes back, it’s a delay, but what it does is hinder integration and slow down the protest process. That’s the first target of a com shutdown.”
This is where Starlink can be particularly useful. But analysts say Musk’s response to Khamenei’s post and changing the flag to X is likely not driven by ideology.
“I doubt he cares about Iran,” Slavin said. “But he wants to drive more traffic for X, and this is one way to do that.”
How useful are Musk’s latest interventions?
The replacement of the Iranian flag at the X came during an internet blackout, so many demonstrators on the ground were unable to see it. However, some Iranian officials were briefly seen by people outside the country with pre-Islamic Republic flags in their account profiles.
“The digital version of conquering the building and pulling down the old flag and trying to put up a new flag was essentially a symbol of what they were going for,” historian Reza H Akbari, who is also an Iran analyst at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, told Al Jazeera.
“The power of these types of movements is easily countered in the mid- and long-term effects,” Akbari said. “But while it may provide a momentary boost (if protesters on the ground see it) the scale of popular support is very difficult to quantify.”
Slavin told Al Jazeera that “what is happening outside Iran is not related to what is happening inside the country”.
“The real struggle for freedom is still within Iran, not the diaspora or others interested in the matter,” she said.
“They can escalate events in Iran and express support for human rights, but we cannot determine the outcome of the conflict.”
A ‘controversial’ flag
Akbari, meanwhile, says the pre-1979 flag “has always been controversial, essentially as a symbol of opposition at home and abroad”.
He added that while the flag may have different meanings for different critics of the current Iranian government, it is associated with “opposition parties known as monarchists or those seeking revenge for the Shah,” who was deposed in 1979.
During recent protests, the ousted Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, called on protesters to take to the streets and take over Iranian cities.
Some protesters, including those outside Iran, have called for a return to the Shah’s rule. Despite its questionable popularity. Akbari said Pahlavi himself has offered to serve as a transitional leader but does not plan to move to Iran permanently to rule the country.
Analysts agree that if the Islamic Republic of Iran falls after 47 years in power, Pahlavi will not be the man to lead the country forward.
“Today, there are many decent and capable people in Iran who can replace those in power. Unfortunately, most of them are in prison,” Slavin said.
“The Shah’s son, meanwhile, lives comfortably in a mansion in Potomac (in the US state of Maryland). It’s hard to see what he offers in the way of practical change.”