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One of the many famous things about the beat of US stock markets is that US government bonds will never get the slack. This is not a good sign.
The yin treasuries are usually in stocks’. If stocks take a hit, bundles mainly jump while investors go to safe beaches. They are known to be “no dangerous” asset “initiated by all. It is a mechanism that has helped many different percent of decades, with rare exceptions.
In this fast-shaked market in the moon stock market, however, the balance work never works. US stocks are conforming, reduced 5 percent of this month to date, and in the middle of March. We are 8 percent since the middle of February. At the same time, bond prices took the flow of this year, but it wasn’t intense. Heart, benchmark 10-year government government in the US is at the same level today as their last month.
It tells you that it is a penny shock. It’s not an economy, stupid. That makes it more difficult to fix. US economic data is more unpleasant, definitely not as bad as suggesting market shakout. US inflation laid back to 2.8 percent In February, a sign that the economy weakens the small but not tank.
But that is never that losing investors. “We sold US assets as we talked,” Michael Strobainek, the Swiss Private Bank Lombard Odier’s Chief Investment Officer, told me Friday morning. “We go through the valley of the pain now.” This is the sight switch. During this time last year, Strobaek talked about “gephergichect“Shopping and restricting US stocks. At the time of this year he was all still in American Prompetalism.
the The US economy didn’t change his mind. However, he called US Vice-President JD Vance’s “final challenge” in Europe in his speech in Munich Security Conference in February. After Donald Trump’s treatment of Ukrainian Voltodmyr Zelenskyy in the White House days later. Then it is the threat of US tariffs against Mexico and Canada. “It clearly clearly they punched this agenda with a sledgehammer,” Strobaine said. Now he withdraws from stocks and with bundles and money.
At some point, frequent flip-flipping of Tariff policy from Trump Administration can damage the real economy. Rich Americans are now overwhelmed with easy stock sliding, so it will hit the pocket. Companies will turn back to spending, if they turned off a random and painful policy shift. More alarming for investors, it is very difficult for the uncertainty to make earning estimates of any conviction, leaving funding managers Flying blind.
The mood is scary. Trevor Comfemam, Multi-Asset President at the Royal Deset Management in the UK, noticed that in his sentiment tracker, back and forth in 1991, the previous days of the market he had observed. This period is broken into the days above there (or below, in my mind) with leisure siblings, the ripening of hipsters capital hedge funds in 1998.
Once again, Preeteham was set, it wasn’t the economy that hurt here. These are tariffs, the geopolitics, the uncertainty of one’s self-doing harm. And “the central banks are not for you for that”. In other words, the Federal Reserve does not ride the rescue as it does, for example, the Covid crisis five years ago.
If investors believe the fed will crawl a white horse to cut rates and heal the mess, bundles are more powerful than today. However, investors seek forward to a slow growth, at the maximum inflation of the future that money policy is not easily fixed.
Without leaving short catalyst to move this situation. Opening a Translant of personality for the US President, an intervention from an adult in the room or a sudden crash of real economy pointing to the decay. “We have fallen a knife territory,” says Chieham.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bossts flew away the effect of “a slight depression” in stock. The Message to White House is the short pain for long gain. Wall Street Heavyweights from Goldman Sachs and Blackstone have this week Potential upsesides are praised to lovers of trump tariffs. I have anything they have.
Although the administration wants to force the fed to make the cuts, which investors look like an adverse independent bank intervention to be extremely intense.
Everyone has a price, and temporary bounces of the wide decree for the course. At some point, US stocks can be cheaper to reel bargain hunters. But in a price ratio – to earn 24 times, compared to 17 in Europe, it is difficult to argue that we are still there. Fund managers are left with good causes of optimism. Perhaps US investors do not notice what Trump suggests 200 percent tariffs In the right French champagne after all.
Katie.martin@ft.com
