“Millions of humans tighten almost no screws to make iPhones. People like this will come to the United States.”
That was U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick April ball Regarding the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, The most radical transfer US trade policy since the 1930s.
The government has used many reasons to meet tariffs, but what seems to be the best way to get the president’s animation is the hope of bringing manufacturing back to the last few decades, many industries, including many industries, have put most of their production overseas, with lower wages, more skilled labor, and more abundant suppliers.
However, the current situation of reversing Apple and other companies is Much more complicated than Trump allowsif possible. Behind the finished smartphone, it is difficult to replace a range of suppliers and assembly providers, especially in Asia.
According to economists and experts, Trump will quickly transfer companies like Apple to the United States, bringing manufacturing back to the United States, and Washington will need a more targeted, methodical, and more stable force. According to economists and experts, if less than a few decades, studying trade and global supply chains, Washington will need a faster, more stable force, which will allow us to quickly transfer its production to the United States to quickly transfer its production to the United States, which has proven too fast and too disruptive.
“No single industrial policy tool can be done alone. It requires an entire ecosystem,” Marc Fasteau said American Industrial Policy: Winning good jobs and competition in high-value industries.
How it happens
Over the past few decades, manufacturing has steadily declined due to a portion of U.S. GDP, from 25% in the 1950s to 10% today. Meanwhile, this proportion has increased by 20% among Asian manufacturers such as China, Japan and South Korea.
In particular, China has occupied most of the world’s manufacturing industry, thanks to a large number of skilled labor and deeply integrated supply chains. Countless industries – partners and household goods, consumer electronics, and even customized products – rely on Chinese factories.
“There are deep ecosystems of hundreds of suppliers and sub-suppliers. You have amazing logistics within the country and then go through the port to ports in the rest of the world,” said Dexter Roberts, a non-resident senior fellow at the U.S. think tank Atlantic Commission.
Dan Wang, a researcher at the Hoover Institution, pointed out that China is also beneficial to the “order of magnitude” (105 million) of manufacturing workers in China. also, China has installed more than half of the world’s industrial robots Compared to the U.S.’s share of only 7%.
“You can tell all suppliers that need to be in your office tomorrow at 8 a.m., and you may be crashing for a few weeks of coordination time,” Wang said. BREAKNECK: China pursues the future.
25% / 10%
US manufacturing is a share of GDP in the 1950s
The most popular image of China’s manufacturing industry is a complex like “iPhone City,” a 5.6 million square metre campus where 300,000 workers assemble most of Apple’s smartphones. But this narrative is becoming more and more outdated.
China is not only an offshore hub. Thanks to a large amount of investment, it has led some key technologies from the United States, such as Electric cars and battery. “The United States is in a very strange position to try to engage in a technical catch-up with low-paying competitors,” Wang said.
Some final rally for large-scale American technology has turned to “Add one in ChinaDestinations such as Vietnam, India and Mexico. The strategy involved starting rallies in China and completing matches elsewhere, starting with Trump’s first administration and accelerating during the league, when U.S. executives looked for alternative manufacturing centers after China entered the lockdown.
If China continues to target stricter tariffs, this shift could accelerate. For example, Apple suddenly changed to More than half of US iPhones have been purchased from India since Trump took office.
As Apple shows, the obvious motivation for the company is to create separate supply chains for different markets. When it comes to Yuqing Xing of the Tokyo National Policy Institute, China may continue to be the main supplier of iPhones in the non-U.S. markets, while India provides iPhones for the U.S. and Indian markets. Meanwhile, Vietnam will assemble other Apple products, such as MAC laptops.
Nevertheless, even if the final convention moved to Vietnam and India, these components had to come from somewhere (very doubtful about China). This may fit Beijing, as China predominates many industries that produce these components. However, “China is not sad to see such low-priced manufacturing fakes,” Roberts said, noting that Chinese officials are encouraging domestic production of high-value items such as semiconductors and batteries.
Estimated price for iPhone: $3,500
105 million/13 million: China’s manufacturing workers are the same as the United States
$500 billion: Apple’s commitment to U.S. investment over the next four years
300,000: Number of workers in iPhone cities in China
But the United States also has risks. Trump dislikes Apple’s transfer of fans to India, threatening tariffs on any iPhone that the United States has not made. “I hope (I hope (Apple’s iPhone) will be sold in the United States and will be made and built in the United States rather than India or anywhere else,” Trump posted on social media Late May.
The United States still does a lot of things, many of which are high-end. Aircraft engines, chip manufacturing tools and industrial machinery are just some finished products that are still sold and exported in the United States
one Tariffs for Chinese goods 145%Even Trump first proposed on April 2 that one of the 54% level would wipe out U.S.-China trade. Everything China provides for U.S. manufacturing will immediately become unbearable. Finished products from countries such as Japan or Vietnam can also be imported at lower tax rates, even if they rely on Chinese parts and still weaken the prices of products made in the United States.
After initially causing turmoil in financial markets, Trump has reviewed many of his initial tariff plans. At the time of this article, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imports from most countries, a 30% tariff on imports from China, and tariffs on goods deemed important to national security, such as steel and auto parts. Some final products, such as smartphones and laptops, are exempt from import taxes.
“No single industrial policy tool can do this alone. It requires an entire ecosystem.”
Co-author Marc Fasteau US industrial policy
Of course, the Trump administration can always decide to raise tariffs again in the future. Or, the courts could beat the entire tariff system as an example of executive overreach, as some federal judges have suggested in recent weeks. In fact, no one knows what will happen next, which makes it difficult for businesses to plan anything.
Can I upgrade again?
From a legal perspective, trade agreements are also more tense than appropriate trade agreements that take months, if not years, to be negotiated. Because they are not legally binding, trade deals cannot be enforced and the Trump administration is not bound by its own commitments. Therefore, in the short term, many companies’ guarantees for large investments in U.S. factories are expensive and take years to build, and the continual policy changes will not make the U.S. an attractive investment destination.
Despite this, even without tariffs, re-equipment is a “fool’s errand.” Roberts said. Bringing something like an iPhone back to the United States would make it expensive. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives estimated in an April report that the price of making iPhones in the U.S. will range from $1,000 to $3,500, tripling that.
The Trump administration may be trying to do it too quickly. “You want to start with small tariffs to show that you are serious and plan to increase it to track the ability of U.S. manufacturers to make these things at scale,” Fasteau said.
From the very beginning, tech companies have tried to turn to the Trump administration to influence its policies. How much of the courtship is a product of a trade war, it is not clear what courtship it may complete. In mid-February, Apple promised to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, bringing its suppliers Foxconn and Worston. Then in early March, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, a world leader in chips, promised to invest $100 billion in its Arizona plant.
What if Trump’s tariffs (whatever the form is taken) weren’t the best way to encourage our manufacturing industry?
Fasteau believes the answer is more investment in automation. He said the U.S. has underinvests in robotics compared to other manufacturing hubs such as China and Germany. “Without investment in robotics, I can’t see large manufacturing industries economically viable in the United States,” Fasteau said.
But perhaps most importantly, the United States needs to decide what manufacturing it really wants. Despite what Lutnick said, the answer may not be the iPhone factory in the United States.
“If American policymakers really want to make iPhones in the US, they should go to China,” Xing said. That means it will be an eye-opening. “They should see how many workers are paid and what their working conditions are and report back to the United States”
This article was published in June/July 2025: Published in Asia wealth The title is “Restoring the manufacturing of American technology is harder than you think.”
This story was originally fortune.com
