Does English football have a problem with sacking managers?
Victor Pereira and Will Still became the latest victims as they were dumped out by Wolves and Southampton at the weekend.
Since the summer of 2024, 52 of the 94 clubs appearing in England’s top four have changed managers at least once.
Twenty-three of those 52 clubs changed managers more than once, and Wolves have become the latest example following Pereira’s ouster after 11 months in charge. Southampton is at home the third change of manager in 18 months after Still’s departure.
This week Between the lines digs into the numbers surrounding the Premier League’s managerial changes and explains why clubs could be on course for a record figure this season.
Four dismissals after 10 games
Pereira has been relegated with Wolves bottom of the table, having picked up just two points from his first 10 games. His departure follows the sackings of Nuno Espirito Santo and Ange Postecoglou from Nottingham Forest and Graham Potter from West Ham.
After just 10 games into the campaign, Premier League clubs have already equaled the number of managerial changes in two of the last six full seasons in the competition.
Based on historical figures for dismissals by month, Premier League clubs are now on course to set a new single-season record, surpassing the total of 14 in 2022/23, with a further 12 changes predicted at the current rate between now and the end of the campaign.
The red section shows the projected total for this season, based on the current rate of change
November marks the beginning of layoff season
So should other Premier League managers be worried?
History shows that club owners tend to scramble around this time of year.
November and December are the most popular months for managerial changes, suggesting that the sacking season has really only just begun despite four bosses already being sacked this term.
Managerial changes are much more common in the middle of the season than in the off-season
Can more follow? The three relegation places are still occupied by Wolves, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, but other teams could easily be dragged into trouble, with newly promoted Burnley and Leeds occupying 17th and 16th places respectively.
Manchester United eased the pressure on Ruben Amorim by going on a four-game unbeaten run, but there is also pressure on head coaches higher up the table, including Thomas Franco and Enzo Maresca after inconsistent starts by Spurs and Chelsea.
Premier League clubs are far more likely to sack managers mid-season than off-season, with a total of just four managerial changes made in June and July, in stark contrast to 70 during November and December.
Are layoffs equal to survival?
Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest hope to have boosted their survival prospects by sacking managers this season, but do changes usually pay off for relegation-fighting clubs?
It’s far from guaranteed.
Since the start of the Premier League era, only 42.5 percent of clubs that have changed managers while sitting in the relegation zone have survived, and 57.5 percent have been relegated.
History suggests that survival chances diminish the longer clubs wait to make a change, which helps explain why Wolves, West Ham and Forest have reacted early this season.
The survival rate for clubs that change managers while sitting in the bottom three is 100 percent in August, but drops to 50 percent in December and 25 percent in January.
No manager has ever kept a club in third position in the Premier League after taking over from March onwards.
Pereira became only the latest victim.
And there could soon be more now that layoff season is upon us.
Read the last one Between the Lines
Four Premier League clubs in crisis? The last installment of Between the linespublished two weeks ago, broke down the problems facing Liverpool, West Ham, Wolves and Nottingham Forest.