Premier League clubs scrambled to add firepower during the summer transfer window, spending a record £1.92 billion on players categorized as forwards. So why do so many struggle?
Even Erling Haaland, one of only three strikers to hit double figures in the Premier League this season, along with Brentford’s Igor Thiago and new City signing Antoine Semenya, has hit a goal drought.
His clean sheet against Manchester United made it five Premier League games without a goal in the open. In fact, his penalty taken against Brighton ends an eight-match run without a goal in open play in all competitions.
Haaland is not the only one struggling to score goals. Between the lines takes a closer look at the dwindling number of Premier League strikers and the reasons behind that trend.
Goals in decline?
The average number of goals scored by forwards fell to a decade low at 1.36 per game, down from 1.58 per game last season and 1.69 per game the previous season.
Viktor Gjokeres took a corner from outside the penalty area during Arsenal’s 3-1 win against Inter Milan, but the Sweden international has not scored in the open in 10 Premier League games.
Manchester United’s Benjamin Sesko has scored just four goals in 17 appearances. Newcastle’s Nick Voltemade has found the net once in his last nine.
The numbers are part of a drop in open field goals across the Premier League. The average has dropped significantly this season as more and more teams put more emphasis on set-pieces.
While defenders are getting more and more touches in the penalty area, encouraged to take corners and free kicks, there are fewer and fewer forwards as they are squeezed out.
Full of boxes and less space
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has articulated some of the challenges facing Premier League strikers when asked about Gjokeres this week.
“I think that goes for all nines in the league and how difficult it is to play that position nowadays with the physicality, the dominance of the centre-backs and their quality, and the lack of space during the match that they can exploit,” he said.
Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Could a lack of goals cost Arsenal? Jamie Carragher delivers his verdict
In the case of Gjokeres, the progression in quality from the Portuguese league to the Premier League clearly exposed the limitations. But he is not alone in the struggle to find space where it matters.
Premier League penalty boxes have become crowded hunting grounds. The number of defensive and offensive players in the box when added to the box has steadily increased in recent seasons, reaching a new high this term.
Of course, it’s harder for hitters to get hits in that context. The increase, from an average of 8.3 players in the box in 2019/20 to 9.4 this season, is even more impressively proportional.
Premier League teams are increasingly prioritizing compactness off the ball to nullify their opponents. A team is defined as compact when all its outfield players are within 25 meters of each other vertically, as in the examples below.
As teams perfected their defensive formations, using compactness to limit the space available, it became more difficult for their opponents to find vulnerabilities in open play.
Defensive organization has improved, with teams now taking less than three seconds to get compact during defensive phases of the game, an average that has fallen steadily in recent campaigns.
The window of opportunity for attacking teams has been reduced and defensive instances have also decreased compared to previous seasons, from roughly 80 per 90 minutes in 2019/20 to 60 per 90 minutes in recent campaigns.
The trend towards defensive solidity was evident in the last round of Premier League games, as 10 games produced a total of just 16 goals. There have already been more goalless draws this season (17) than in either of the previous two full campaigns.
Of course, with Premier League strikers gone wrong, each individual case comes with its own nuances. But the numbers add up to less space and fewer opportunities and provide context for the struggles of attacking players up and down the division
Read last week’s Between the Lines
Don’t miss our in-depth look at the rise in goals scored in the Premier League this season. What makes Arsenal so effective? And why are Liverpool struggling? We evaluated the numbers for swing deliveries against outswingers, long throws and more.