Mogadishu, Somalia – Donald Trump’s 224 election campaign was a big announcement to end the US “Forever War”, during which he and his supporters were garbage in American resources and worldwide conflicts.
But on February 1, the second time after the inauguration, only 10 days later, President Trump announced The United States terminated a targeted airline of ISIL (ISIS) in Somalia. “These killers, who were hiding in the caves, threatened the United States,” his post on X read. Because of this, Trump did the first military action abroad, but this would not be his last.
After that, the United States has shown weapons and support to Israel across Gaza and the Middle East; He has started strikes on Yemen; And also attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. At the same time, in the Horn of Africa, the US strikes have been more than “double” since last year, Accordingly US Africa Command (Africa).
According to the Think Tank, Africhom, which monitors US military activities in Somalia in 2025, has made at least 43 air strikes. New AmericaWhich tracks the strike by using African data. More than half of them, which are held In coordination of Somalia’s Federal Government, the ISIL affiliated with the Pentland state in the northeast targets IS-Somalia, while the rest of the al-Shabab.
At the US Air Strike targeting IS-Somalia, the group appears to have been linked to the increasing concern that this group has become a center for regional and global ISIL associations in terms of financing and attacks, According to the American Officer to??
At the same time, experts have also taken into account the recently alarming profits in Somalia.
But why this war is the growing hand of the Trump administration of the war – especially in Somalia’s many decades of policy controversy, disaster and failure in Somalia.
American intervention in Somalia: failure from the beginning?
“From the Black Hawk Down, Somalia was a non-Go zone for the United States,” said Somali analyst and former US angel Abukar Arman. 1993 American military intervention In Somalia, 18 American troops and thousands of Somali citizens were killed.
“When they were changed, Somalia became the main theater of the so-called GWOT (world war against terrorism) when they were changed. There are three objectives of that political face: It proves the justification of the deadly drone attacks of the United States to the United States, and it helps the United States to explain the geographical interests of Africa.
In 2007, Somia became the first country in the African continent to be the victim of the United States of the United States after 9/11 as part of its so -called “war against terrorism”. In the subsequent decade, the United States has intensified not only the air bombing in the country.
Somalia ends with more than 50 American airlines, together with former president George W Bush and Barack Obama, and in the first tenure of Trump, 219 strikes were seen alone in Trump’s first tenure. In just five months during his second tenure, with more dozen strikes, analysts say that if this rate continues at this rate, Trump is sure to overtake the 51 strikes by the Biden administration during the entire four -year position.
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, suggests that Trump has created an ideal stage in Somalia on which remotely projects US power capacity – because it has a high fire, low -minded and low -American domestic risk.
“By solving the restrictions in the Obama age, he increased the premature strike with a minimal examination or responsibility. Logic was not just strategic; it was a drama: rigor, claim to have a signal contrast with previous administration and claim to claim,” Norman told Al Jazia.
“So, what you see now is a growth of drone activity, but without any investment in support of long -term peace or administration,” he explained.
Norman also highlighted how the strategic direction of Somia in the Trump White House increased the US strike.
“Their (Trump’s) administration also had rivals. Some emphasized the speeding investment between Somalia and Yemen, while others argued that it was a distraction to distract the anti-terrorism with China.
He said, “Trump explains to push and pull this policy (during the spectacle and strategy) to explain why the air strike has increased even when talking about the end of the wars forever.”
Profitable
Some analysts indicate that another reason for the US end can be an unprecedented resistant to Al-Shabab this year. In it, the armed group reversed and detained most of the regional profits of the Somali government Dozens of cities And Hasan Sheikh Mohammad, the president of the villages in the Central Shabal region of the state of the state of the state.
Another complex case was that during this countertament, the Al-Shabab was able to move on to the capital and was able to establish the main roads on the main roads of Mogadishu. It not only shows the deep structural weakness of the Somali security forces, but also shows the flexibility of the armed group as they have gone closer to the power of the Mogadishu, experts say.
“It appears to be more closely related to the battlefield (the end of the recent America)-and especially the dangerous threat of Al-Shabab’s attack that has reversed some of the earlier profits of the Somali government,” said David Sertmon, Deputy Director of New America’s Future Security Program.
He said, “There may be other ingredients, including more interested in targeting senior al-Baba leaders.”
As the Trump administration continues the bombing campaign, some argue that the same armed groups claim that they are fighting.
“The current drone will continue to help Al-Shabab. These attacks kill citizens, destroy property and livestock. These complaints are used by armed groups that take advantage of these sentiments,” Somali analyst Arman said, “There was a lack of US policy on the interests of both countries.
“It is foolish to think that all problems can be solved by hammer,” he said, referring to the drone and military power.
Civil death, ‘lack of responsibility’
In the first tenure of Trump’s presidency, Claim group And media outlets have reported a numerous civilian accident from the United States on Somalia. When this was more extended Africhom confessed Citizens died by making it happen.
In 2019, when Amnesty International alleged that the United States was committed to the United States, the situation reached its climax. “Potential war criminal offenses) In Somalia as a result of his drone war. Despite the claim that the rights groups and US MPs have demanded responsibility, no victims of the US drone strike have never been compensated.
“The constant shortage of civilians in the US air attacks, especially under the previous (Trump) administration, expresses the deepest shortage of transparency,” said Eva Buzo, an executive director of the victims of human rights in the world.
She said, “The United States has harmed citizens and allocated funds and has yet to avoid making these significant payments,” she said, “To better understand the true effect of the drone strike,” what can be done to identify the affected communities to recognize this consequence. “
In the meantime, groups like al-Shabab often live and work in civilians and work. It hides, but it means that people in war with armed groups are rarely different between citizens and soldiers when targeting people.
The outbreak of the United States in rural rural areas is often dependent on the US outbreak where al-Shabab is the most present, and where the rival of the clan, the informal economy and the changing loyalty are all factors that can be ignored by the United States. Experts say that this only complicates accurate targets, but also increases the chances of injury to non-aggravated people.
Although there is no problem with official deaths from the US collapse, it is believed to have been killed for years of attacks from 33 to 167 civilians in Somalia, according to the independent height of the Watchdog. Airway??
The civilization of the United States has reduced the credibility of the United States due to the US air attacks, and the al-Shabab armed groups feed on the armed groups in the story: Foreign aggression and Somali betrayal, Danish Institute said.
He said, “Not only is it angry in these incidents; they give the propaganda gold. When citizens are killed or displaced, al-Shababs exploited the latter. They quickly move themselves as Somali’s life against the aggressive and weak federal government,” he said, “he said.
He said, “Without responsibilities, the rebellion that interprets the drone strike in reality can really create a situation.”
Adding fire to fire?
After almost two decades of the United States, many analysts agree that in the fabric of the Somali Society, its social networks and the armed movement that enhances foreign intervention cannot defeat alone. This is likely to hurt these armed groups, let them defeat, difficult.
“There are interesting parallel to Afghanistan; local troops struggled to organize the region, the US collapse temporarily filled the vacuum temporarily, but the long -term path remains dark. Air power may suppress, but it does not change,” Norman said.
“The gap between the rhetoric and the Somali reality in the United States is very precise where Al-Shabab is enriched.
“In this sense, the loss of legality is abstract; it weakens the possibility of local decisions, fuel recruitment and authentic partnership between Somali citizens and international artists.”
If the Trump administration continues the air bombing in Somalia, analysts say that it will only increase the fuel in the fire by strength to the enemy who claims to be in the battle. At the same time, he says, the cost of drone and missile to fight boogin in half the world is a waste of American taxpayers’ money.
Experts on American military and anti -terrorism policies say that armed groups in Somalia are less likely to satisfy military.
“It is unlikely that the US and its Somali partner could completely eliminate the partner, Al-Shabab, and doing so will require a different approach to what it looks. IS-Somalia does not have the same record of flexibility,” said New America Deputy Director Sterman.
“Of course, the question of what is the meaning of defeat and destruction for a non -state group.”
“They said that the US goals are more limited than the defeat or destruction of these groups – focusing on containers (more) or focusing on the elimination of specific capabilities or network connections.”
In the meantime, what is definitely, experts say that the US lean on the drone without investing in local validity and supports the grassroots, more groups like Al-Shabab and IS-Somalia, and will grow in the new generation of deprived Somalis.
