Russian death rates on the front lines are rising to levels that cannot be sustained by the current system of voluntary conscription, Ukrainian figures suggest.
“In December, 35,000 traders were fired – and this is confirmed by video footage,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a speech on Monday evening. “In November, there were 30,000 and in October, 26,000 traders were fired.”
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Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Sirsky echoed that analysis.
“The enemy lost more than 33,000 personnel (in December). This figure includes only confirmed video cases, but the actual losses of the occupiers are much higher,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging service.
December 2025, he said, was “the first month when the unmanned systems units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces neutralized nearly as many soldiers as Russia’s conscripted army in one month”.
Russia has maintained regular recruitment since its war in Ukraine, recruiting volunteers on a contractual basis to fight in its “special military operations”.
On December 27, Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) head Kyrylo Budanov told state broadcaster Suspilne that Russia had reached its quota of 403,000 recruits in 2025 – an average of 33,583 per month, and plans to increase it slightly to 34,000 per month by 2025.
Ukraine’s casualty reports, if accurate, suggest they are no longer sustainable and could force Russia to use active reserves.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, observed in November that forward reserve units in Belgorod had begun receiving heavy equipment such as howitzers, thermobaric weapons and all-terrain vehicles.
“Regional defense units assigned to protect the critical infrastructure of the rear area do not need heavy equipment useful for offensive operations,” ISW said, adding that “Russia is setting the conditions for deploying the Belgorod Oblast active reserve for combat missions.”
Analysts say the deployment of reserves or troops could pose significant political risks for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has left mainstream Russian society vulnerable to his aggressive war.
Ukraine estimates that nearly 420,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded last year.
Zelenskyy noted first On December 16, the rising death rate of the Russian army.
“The increase in these figures is the result of the right decisions. There should be more decisions like this,” he said on Monday.
He was referring to the production of drones, which Ukraine successfully ramped up in 2025 and plans to ramp up this year.
He said this was the main reason for appointing former Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov as Defense Minister on Friday.
Zelensky described Fedorov as “deeply involved in issues related to the drone line and working very effectively on digitizing public services and processes”.
The president praised outgoing Defense Secretary Dennis Schmyal for reaching a production target of 1,000 intercept drones per day by the end of last year, which he moved to the energy portfolio.
Russia claims that Ukraine has its own recruitment problem.
“Ordinary Ukrainians are increasingly disillusioned with the actions of the authorities due to the situation at hand,” Russian Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov said in a Dec. 18 year-end report to Putin.
He said Ukrainian recruitment levels had halved by 2025 to 14,000 in November, and Ukraine’s lawyers was opened A total of 160,000 cases against defectors from 2022.
Al Jazeera was unable to verify the Russian or Ukrainian claims.
Russia did not succeed in 2025.
Its average daily advance rate was 13.24sq km (5.1sq miles) in 2024, compared with 9.87sq km (3.8sq miles) a day, ISW said.
But the monthly breakdown showed an inconsistent pattern of land grabs rather than steady growth. Russia’s territorial gains are still only 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s, including villages and farms.
New Russian tactics
Russia has stated that it aims to capture the remaining three regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, which, on paper, are fully annexed.
To achieve this, Russia is using new tactics using drones to cut Ukrainian supply lines and create a kill zone as deep as 15km (9 miles) behind the front line.
Russia introduced fiber-optic drones wired invulnerable to electronic jamming in 2025, and Sirsky credited Russia’s ability to capture the city of Siversk in Donetsk in recent months.
“The Russians have followed our lead and created independent drone system units, which already have 80,000 military personnel,” Syrsky wrote. “In the second phase, in 2026, they plan to double their numbers to 165,500. And by 2030, they aim to reach almost 210,000.”
Russia changed tactics a few months ago, from large mechanized attacks that caused heavy losses of personnel and equipment, to infiltration tactics using multiple divisions of two soldiers to cut off bridgeheads and supplies before reinforcements arrived.
These tactics enabled them to capture two-thirds of the eastern city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk and roughly half of neighboring Myrnohrad by the end of last year.
Hoping to further hone these tactics, Ukraine has said it is improving training for new troops.
“We clearly understand what we will face in the near future,” Syrsky wrote. “We have set the task of creating special units designed to effectively detect and destroy the enemy’s high-tech drone units, control points and crews of the occupier’s unmanned aerial systems.”
Long range warfare
On Monday, the war claimed the first two civilian deaths of the year in Ukraine. A Russian drone struck a hospital in Kiev, killing one patient and another civilian southwest of the capital.
On the same day, Russia attacked heating and power plants in the northern city of Kharkiv.
In the first week of the year, Russia launched 789 drones and 10 missiles at Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine shot down 83 percent of the drones and one missile.
Russia stepped up a package of long-range airstrikes against Ukraine shortly after United States President Donald Trump won the November 2024 election.
During 2025, they launched 54,000 long-range attack drones and 1,900 missiles over Ukraine, ISW said.
According to Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhii Beskrestnov, Russia made an innovation on Sunday by deploying Shahad drones with mounted man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) designed to shoot down drone-hunting aircraft.
“I ask military aviation pilots to take note of the new threat. They should avoid approaching Shahed on a head-on course,” Beskrestnov said.
Information warfare
On December 29, Russia claimed Ukraine had attempted to attack Putin’s residence on the shores of Lake Valdai in Novgorod, and on January 1, his defense ministry said flight data from a downed drone proved it.
The target audience appeared to be US President Donald Trump, who was personally called by Putin to deliver the news.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday (Jan. 4), despite initially declaring his belief that the story was true, “I don’t believe there was an attack.”
On New Year’s Day, Russia claimed that Ukraine deliberately attacked a bar in Kherson’s town of Khorli. Ukraine has denied the attack.
“We see the Kremlin spreading new disinformation to prepare Russian and foreign audiences for further escalation,” Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service said the next day.
