The market largely ignores possibilities New tariffs Can store tanks like April.
President Donald Trump has issued another extension of his tariff policy, which will now take effect on August 1. South Korea and Japan A “tariff letter” was received on Monday, which told them about their new tariff rates on goods. The president also said more letters will be sent Tuesday and Wednesday.
The letters issued by the state will replace Trump, originally announced on April 2.
Trump’s sudden tariff announcement earlier this year put the market in a strait. Now, with the imminent possibility, some markets are at all-time highs. It seems that the market not only priced on risk, but perhaps neglect Together.
Ubus Global Wealth Management Senior Equity Strategist In a media brief on Tuesday, rubber must be on the road at some point and there is a risk that mutual tariffs with major trading partners may return to April 2 levels or around, which could be a headwind for the market. “But for now, the market is willing to consider this risk. ”
And through what they have.
Last week, the S&P 500 hits Historical indoor height 6,284.65. As of Tuesday, the record was only about 50 points. The market has done it Roaring back Starting from the lows in early April, it is mainly because the United States is moving towards a trade policy investor that is considered stable. They are also more accustomed to the Herky Jerky nature of the White House tariff policy.
“In the past few months, we have seen government escalation, just a rapid downgrade, which could also be another tactical escalation,” Lovell said of the latest deadline.
In the investment world, this phenomenon is called “Trump says,” Reference Options Trading. This is an investment paper that believes that Trump has always reversed the course of policies that hurt the stock market; therefore, any decline is temporary and a buying opportunity.
This does not mean that the market is completely immune to the impact of uncertainty tariffs. this Dow Jones Both Jones and Standard & Poor sank for the second consecutive day on Tuesday.
So far, Trump has Turn around According to his strictest tariff policy. this Many The extension and suspension of deadlines helps to boost the final version of investors, and no final version of any tariff will be swept like the first draft. There are also Several carvings What is certain is industry For example, chips, key minerals and some drugs. However, Trump promised that it would not extend to the August 1 deadline.
Even with the current pause, the overall tariff rate for imports to the United States is more than six times higher than the beginning of the year. According to UBS, the average weighted tariff rate is 16%, compared to 2.5% in 2024. If all postponed tariffs are to be reimplemented, the ratio will rise to 21%.
On Wall Street, despite a rebound since April, financial institutions have been advising customers to diversify from U.S. stocks. Many currency managers are moving more portfolios to some European stocks that have lagged behind their U.S. counterparts for years. The reason for these investors is that the U.S. market is still replaced by turbulent trade policies.
“Nothing that happened yesterday should not mean we are near the end of the 2025 U.S. tariff story,” Macquarie global forex and interest rate strategist Thierry Wizman wrote. “In addition to the still need to address ‘reciprocity tariffs’, there are new ‘strategic tariffs’ to look forward to this year.”
Raising tariff levels will also lower U.S. growth forecasts. In the earliest days of Trump’s tariffs, odds for the U.S. recession soared. Wall Street and the Fed’s forecasts cut their forecasts for GDP growth and raised forecasts for inflation and unemployment. Among Fed economists, the median growth rate in the United States is 1.4%. According to UBS’ chief economist Jonathan Pingle, UBS’s projection rate is low in 2025, at 0.9%.
If all April tariffs will return, the U.S. could lose “another three thirds” of its annual growth rate, Piner said.
“In this case, the probability of a recession will increase, which will feel like a very slow growth,” he said. “I mean, the United States does not grow 1% often.”
