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The author is a former senior security owner of US National Security and State Department of Officer
It took several weeks – years, before the US attacks in Iran “succeeded,” as President Donald Trump declared time after the bombs fall. Bombs hit their targets and strikes may have put the nuclear program in Iran in months or even years. But that’s a distant scream from the guarantee “success.”
The fastest questions are anyway how long the underground underground is not doing business with Iran. Before strikes, Iran has more than 400kg of heu, perhaps made with relatively small canisters and possibly iTvurs around the country in grounds. If even a small part of that material saves the attack, Iran now has enough fissile material for many nuclear bombs.
In higher terms, the main issue is the impact of strikes of nuclears in Iran. The best case scenario is that Iran realizes decades of long-term businesses to find a choice of nuclear nuclear fate. But Iran leaders who would rather bring the conclusion that nuclear weapons can protect them and before Israel’s nuclear achievements can easily maintain nuclear activities.
The key to making a mission is a long term success is to avoid the overall military increase that can take the US in war and make a renewable program of Nuclear in Iran more likely. The Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ayatollah is Khamenei threatened the US with “uncountable injury” if Washington entered the war, but in fact his choices are very limited. The Proxy Network of Iran is embarrassed, the highest ballistic missile caused, and its own air defenses destroyed, left unsaved US attacks or attacks in Israel.
Iran has many short missiles that can be targeted by US forces and mines to mines and assets to be temporarily closing strace in West by driving west. But most of these steps are almost sure to invite the powerful revenge in the US threatened by Trump. The regime’s primary purpose is to maintain power, which is the reason to seek a potential nuclear ban in the first place. Response in a way that the US attraction to war can threaten the regime more than the absence of nuclear program.
It is hard to imagine Iran not to respond to an American attack on valued nuclear facilities. It can fire in many ballistic missiles in Israel, encourage its proxies in Yemen, Iraq and Syria leading to regional stimulations or retrieving a moderate and preserving other public credibility and preservation of other public credibility. But if it is wise to calibrate that response in a way that is designed to avoid wasting all of October when Iran is conducting more because it does not waste because the choices are bad because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the options are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not good because the choices are not well.
Of course, Iran can also choose for the opposite method of killing Americans and drawing the US, and American prices have a halt to halve in the middle of the Middle East
Trump itself has a huge interest in avoiding the late scenario and helps do so by sending the right Tehran signals. Some will advise him that the only way to reduce the nuclear option of Iran removal but that is the most reliable way to drag the US in addition to the battle.
However, Trump must obtain the regime on the table and explain it to Iran leaders they will pay a great price for retaliation against the US, but that is a de-operation and even operation can still be. If the leadership of Iranian believes that “call it” can now save their rule, and may even launch the way for the sanctions given to their other choices.
Trump’s strikes in Iran are a large and unnecessary gambling. But making a real success depends on getting important decisions in the next few days right.
