Investors will review the official U.S. federal government’s working numbers this morning to measure whether the Trump administration is helping or harming the economy.
Most economists believe that President Trump’s tariff policy will harm the economy by raising the price of anything Americans need and transferring certain supply chains to the United States at higher costs and less efficient manufacturing.
But inflation and unemployment have barely risen, and so far hard data has had little harm. In fact, the deadline for companies that order from overseas may have been Increase Economic activities in the first half of the year.
Despite this, the federal government has laid off employees and many companies have laid off employees – Microsoft recent. ADP Private Pay Report shows jobs fell by 33,000 in June.
Pantheon macroeconomics analyst Samuel Grave and Oliver Allen think ADP numbers are garbage.
“The prediction record of ADP is terrible,” they said in a note. wealth. “ADP underestimates the preliminary estimates of private wages in April and May only exceed 100K, and the scale of these missed is far from unusual. …ADP’s employment situation in the manufacturing, distribution and construction sectors shows that the current big counter-trend facing with the current concern and the estimates of the Easter (Ad triff) hunted in the June limit, but in the June estimate, there is a futile range. Like its title figures, we tend to ignore it.”
The Pantheon team is also concerned about private residential construction, which fell 6.7% year-on-year in May.
The Pantheon estimated that the non-agricultural wage rate increased by 100,000. Goldman Sachs’ forecast is 85,000. The consensus is 110,000.
“Big data metrics are soft, we estimate that the temporary protection status of approximately 350,000 Venezuelan immigrants will be terminated by mid-May, with 25,000 tows being imposed, and we expect the federal government payroll. We estimate that we estimate the unemployment rate to be as high as 4.3% on a circular basis,” Hatzius said on Goldman’s team, up to 4.3%. ”
UBS also believes that the number may be low.
“There is a hint report today that may be weak,” Paul Donovan said. “U.S. presidents usually see data the day before release. Last night, U.S. President Trump issued a social media post calling on Fed Chairman Powell to resign. Policy uncertainty and the largest tax increase in modern taxes are more likely to damage the labor market than Fed policy, but the position may indicate weaker data.”
Stock traders usually like it when the unemployment rate increases because when companies lower workers, they also lower costs and appear at the bottom line as EPS increases.
S&P 500-year futures continued to be established this morning, with investors lifting the index to a new all-time high yesterday. JPMorgan’s Emma Wu and the team said retailers have returned to the market in the past few weeks.
Putting all these clues together – the small number of ADPs, the weaker metrics in the data, Trump’s attempt to blame Powell for everything, and retail traders buying the market – suggests that investors bet on jobs today will be grim.
Of course, if they are all wrong, then as investors eat a large portion of the Crow pie, Trump wins loudly.
Here is a snapshot of the action before the opening bell of New York:
- S&P Futures are rare this morning
- S&P 500 S&P 500 his new high, 6,227.42.
- Markets in Europe and the UK were on an upward trend in early trading.
- Nasdaq Composite materials grew by nearly 1%.
- Dow Jones Jones is flat.
- South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.34% this morning.
- China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.62%.
- Bitcoin price is $109K.
- The Nikkei 225 in Japan is flat.
