Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the U.S. economy is not in a recession, but the number of industries that cut employees is worrying, and future revisions to job data may have shown that jobs have fallen.
exist Sunday’s X Post Serieshe followed last weekend’s warning The economy is on the verge of a recession.
This time, Zandi noted that the beginning of the recession was unclear, until after the fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research was a formal arbitrator who began and ended by a person.
According to nberThe recession involved “a significant decline in economic activity that spread throughout the economy and lasted for more than a few months.” It also looked at a range of indicators, including personal income, employment, consumer spending, sales and industrial production.
Zandi said wage and employment data are by far the most important data point, and a decline of more than a month in a row will indicate a recession. He added that although the fall has not started yet, it has hardly grown since May.
Payroll expanded by only 73,000 last monthwell below the forecast of about 100,000. Meanwhile, May’s Tally fell from 144,000 revisions to 19,000, while the total in June cut from 147,000 to just 14,000, which means the average growth in the past three months is now only 35,000.
Since the recent revisions have always been much lower, Zandi said he would not be surprised if the subsequent revisions indicate that employment has declined.
He added: “Also said that in many industries, employment is falling. “In July, more than 53% of industries were laying off employees and only health care made sense for wage increases. ”
Last week, Zandi said the data often sees a lot of revisions when the economy is at an inflection point, such as a recession. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook also pointed out that the massive revisions were a “typical turning point” in the economy.
Now, Atlanta Fed’s GDP Tracker Key points of sustained growth, the third-quarter forecast rose to 2.5% from 2.1% last week, although that remains the 3% slowdown in the second quarter.
With weekly unemployment claims not yet rising, and the unemployment rate has barely changed, and there is no sign of massive layoffs, the bounce for more than a year is between 4% and 4.2%.
But Zandi said the unemployment rate would be a “barometer of recession for particularly poor” due to the decrease in the number of foreign-born workers.
“It should also be noted that the recession is defined by the continued decline in work – the decline lasted for at least a few months. We are not there yet, so we are not in a recession,” he explained. “If economic policy escalates quickly to the economy, things may still be reversed. But that looks increasingly unlikely.”
Wall Street split Regarding what the job data is saying, some analysts attribute the slowdown to weak workforce demand, while others accused President Donald Trump of a weaker workforce.
Bank of America fall into Supply Camp “The market is blending recession with scattering,” said UBS, but UBS warned of weak demand, pointing out average working week averages below 2019 levels and saying the labor market showed “Stall speed. ”
last week, JPMorgan Chase economists also issued an alarm Potential downturn. They noted that job data show that in the past three months, the private sector recruitment averaged only 52,000, while the sector’s health and education stagnated.
They say that coupled with the lack of any signs of soaring due to immigration policies is a strong signal that business demand for the labor has cooled down.
“We have always stressed that the sliding of labor demand at this scale is a warning sign of a recession,” JPMorgan added. “Companies typically maintain the benefits of hiring by what they think is a brief growth downshift. It is often a pioneer in layoffs when labor demand slides downshifts with growth downshifts.”
