An unexpectedly tight special election is unfolding in Tennessee, where Democrats in the United States are hoping to flip the reliably conservative 7th Congressional District.
On Tuesday, voters in the southern state went to the polls to choose a successor to Republican Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to pursue a career in the private sector.
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His vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives has paved the way for an incredibly competitive off-season race, which critics have described as a sign of escalation. Dissatisfaction With Republican President Donald Trump.
The election pits Trump-backed candidate Matt Van Eps, a former state commissioner, against Democratic state Rep. Aftin Bain.
“I’m asking all America First patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to please get out and vote for the phenomenal candidate and MAGA Warrior, Matt Van Eps!” Trump said on social media Post on tuesday.
“You can win this election for Matt, who has my full and total support.”
Other national figures have weighed in on the race, including progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Al Gore, who rallied on Behn’s behalf.
“The fact that this race is playing out shows that we’re in a time where anything can happen and miracles can happen with Tennessee,” said Ocasio-Cortez, who praised Behn for her “guts.”
“Now we have this race at a significant distance: what we call the effort gap.”
A national spotlight on a local race
The battle for control of Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is less than a year before the crucial US midterm elections in November 2026.
During the midterms, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in that chamber as well as in the US Senate.
Given how narrow the margins are, both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to win every seat.
For example, Texas’ right wing passed a bill in August that would redraw the state’s congressional districts with the goal of giving Republican politicians five additional seats in the midterms.
A Trump-backed redistricting push has inspired other states to make similar efforts. In left-leaning California, for example, voters approved a ballot initiative in November to redraw the state’s congressional map to help Democrats pick up five more seats, effectively negating Texas’ efforts.
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District was not part of this year’s partisan redistricting push. But in 2022, the Republican-controlled state legislature redrew congressional maps to give Republicans a greater edge.
The 2022 map split Nashville — a Democratic-leaning city — into three separate congressional districts, reducing the power of Democratic voters there. The 7th Congressional District is now one of the districts representing a portion of Nashville.
Earlier, this was safely considered a right-wing district. But Behn closely trails Van Eps in most polls.
An Emerson College poll put her at 46 percent, compared to 48 percent for Van Epps. An additional 5 percent of those surveyed remained undecided.
But if Behn wins, her victory will reduce the Republican majority in the US House of Representatives.
Given how close the two candidates are in the polls, money from national groups has flowed into the race.
MAGA Inc – a super PAC named for Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement – has poured $1m into the race, in its first donation since the 2024 presidential election season. The left-leaning House Majority PAC has spent $1 million backing Behn.
Republicans are hoping to bounce back from a string of electoral losses to Democrats in November’s off-year elections.
For example, in New Jersey, Democrat Mickey Sherrill defeated a Trump-backed candidate to win the governor’s seat, and another Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, similarly won Virginia’s gubernatorial race.
Political analysts believe that Tennessee’s tight race could point to an increasingly hostile political landscape for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Trump In 2024, Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District was won by 22 points.
But a recent Gallup poll found that Trump’s popularity He has fallen to his second term low, with just 36 percent of voters approving of his performance. Disapproval also hit a new high, with 60 percent disapproving.
In the lead-up to Tuesday’s vote, Republican leaders urged supporters to make their voices heard at the ballot box.
“Special elections are strange animals, and anything can happen. And when you’re in a deep-red district, sometimes people assume that the Republicans, the conservatives, are going to win,” the Republican House Speaker said. Mike Johnson told reporters.
“You can’t assume that, because anything can happen. So we encourage everyone to go out there and make it happen.”