Three Economic Flashes for 2026

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China will be more confident on the world stage at the end of 2025 than at the beginning of the year.

It is a restricted economy against US “Liberty Day” tariffs, and has produced a rare land map. Its technology companies have and are exempt from US chip restrictions Excess costs artificial intelligence These are intermediate offers from us, for example, from Openai. China’s global perception improving.

Whether or not most Chinese economies will have the same level of confidence is less clear.

The country’s top leaders are expected to discuss policy plans for 2026 next week at the annual Central Economic Working Conference. The dates were not officially released, and the conference was held December 11-12 last year.

Here are three key trends economists are looking at:

1. Ownership

Chinese real estate has taken a turn for the worse on many fronts this year, with the property giant at the center of its latest PourFinancial fighters.

Once one of China’s largest developers and potentially local brand, Vanke Tendency to procrastinate 15 billion yuan ($283 million) withdrawal. The news prompted S&P Global ratings on Dec. 7 Vanke debt reduction late last week.

An aerial view shows buildings under construction in Anghing, east China’s Anhui province of Anhui, on May 29, 2025.

J. | AFP | Getty Images

“Confidence in China at home has been more fragile, so if it can be debated, it’s the corporate ratings on the & p chance s & p ratings.”

“It could also drag down property sales across the country,” he said. He added that the mortgage subsidy plan As discussed in the message The slide in property sales is unlikely to reverse.

Goldman Sachs said new home sales fell 20% to 30% over the weekend in November from a year ago. “In our opinion, the agreement of another batch of real estate easing has increased,” analysts said.

But is bad bad?

In October, nationwide monthly sales across the country were still 65.3 billion yuan below their 2024 levels, Chan reported.

“Now it’s hard to measure what the government thinks, what it thinks it thinks.”

2. Consumption

Beijing has other things on its mind.

After a five-year planning meeting in late October, politicians made a big decision Increasing domestic consumption. It left senior leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, several days ago for high-level trade talks with the US and other countries.

Last week, six ministries released development plans for consumer industries ranging from electronics to sporting goods. At least three sectors should be needed 1 trillion yuan Each should reach 10 billion yuan by 2027, and another 10, the document said. However, the plan did not show how.

“Funding agreements and implementation details are missing,” Goldman Sachs Analysts said in a report, with a specific focus on integrating AI into consumer products and services.

“In general, this plan is completely supply-side,” said experts, adding that we believe that sustained growth in consumer spending will require policy support to create jobs and generate income.

In the first half of this year, China’s household bad loan ratio was 1.33%, Going beyond the corporate relationshipit fell to 1.2%, according to Natixis.

Businesses may be able to rebuild, but households have far fewer options, said Gary Ng, senior household economist, especially given ongoing pressure from the real estate and labor markets.

3. Deflation

Since the pandemic, Chinese consumers have been increasing, and companies have been tightening their wallets on prices.

Even with extended promotions running from early October to November, China’s biggest shopping event of the year saw a surge in sales. shepherd up to 14.2% From 26.6% last year, according to third-party analysis.

Headline inflation ruled Close to zero in recent months. But a much higher 1.2% increase “Core” CPI, which excludes food and energy priceshardly convincing.

Nomura’s chief China economist Lu said last week that a quarter of inflation was driven by rising gold prices, according to an analysis of official data. Eliminates this, and CERE CPI was 0.9% in October, he said.

Lu expects Beijing to support the policy in the spring, which he expects will get the country’s next five-year plan off to a solid start.

In November, China will release November inflation data on December 10, followed by December 15 investment indicators for retail sales, industrial production and investment.

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China's major investment recession could be the start of a sea change, says expert

Charlensk Chu, China’s senior macro financial analyst at Autonomy Research, said that persistent deflation is due to the fact that Chinese companies are disinvesting more at home than they are returning.

SATS Chief Cargo Officer, Economy Ladder and year-end travel demand

Kerry Mok, president and CEO of SATS, which accounts for more than half of its air cargo revenue, said China’s overall trade is growing, while U.S. e-commerce sales have fallen due to the repeal of the “DE MINIMIS” rule.

Humanoid robot orders could explode in 2026: Goldman Sachs

Jacqueline Du, head of technology research at Goldman Sachs, says there is demand for humanoid robots, but companies in the supply chain are optimistic, even if they are not yet useful.

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