Businesses are trying to do more and have been relying on automation during recessions, but the emergence of generated AI could be a typical pattern of desperate winners and losers in the next recession.
While white-collar knowledge workers have not previously suffered from the severe recession-induced layoffs or unemployment recovery, the next time may be different, Morgan senior economist Murat Tasci said in a report Tuesday.
He wrote: “More specifically, we believe that the speed and breadth of adoption of AI tools and applications in the workplace during the next recession may lead to large-scale displacement, which are composed primarily of Filton cognitive tasks; therefore, mainly of Filton cognitive tasks.
Tasci says that since the late 1980s, work focusing on routine tasks has been gone due to automation. These include “regular cognitive occupations” such as sales and office work, and “regular manual occupations” such as work in construction, maintenance, production and transportation.
Over the past four decades, it took longer and longer for routine work to rebound after the recession. In fact, before the huge financial crisis, employment in conventional occupations had not yet returned to its peak.
In contrast, “non-professional cognitive professions” (scientists, engineers, designers and lawyers) (such as scientists, engineers, designers and lawyers) have less periodicity, and hardly any lower than the pre-recession peak. Tasci observed that they led the previous job recovery most of the time.
The “ominous” sign of unemployment model
But an unprecedented shift in unemployment trends may indicate that white-collar knowledge workers will suffer very different fates in the era of artificial intelligence.
Now, workers from non-professional cognitive occupations now account for the first time the unemployed share of the unemployed compared to non-professional manual work (i.e., health care support, personal care and food preparation work).
“Until recently, until recently, workers employed in non-professional cognitive jobs have accounted for the smallest share of the unemployed,” Tasci said. “This changing pattern may indicate an increased risk of unemployment for these workers.”
That’s the evidence has been posted AI has limited the number of entry-level jobs Usually filled by recent college graduates.
At the same time, AI poses more additional risks to daily work or non-published manual work, which still require more physical interaction, he explained.
The increased threat to white-collar knowledge workers also poses greater risks to the economy, as they now account for nearly 45% of the total employment, up from 30% in the early 1980s.
“The unemployment risk for these workers and the prospect of recovery for anemia may lead to the downturn in the next labor market,” Tasci warned. “The unemployment recovery due to the growth of anemia in the conventional occupation may be repeated again, this time mainly due to anemia recovery in non-regulated cognitive occupations.”
But others aren’t that frustrating about AI and the job market. Tech investor David Sacks, who also served as the White House Tsar for AI and Crypto, tried to debunk several “doomsday narratives” about artificial general intelligence.
exist X Saturday Posthe said, “There is a clear division of labor between humans and artificial intelligence”, which means people still need to feed the environment necessary for AI models, give them broad tips and verify their outputs.
“This means that the doomsday prediction of unemployment is as exaggerated as AGI itself,” Sax added. “Instead, ‘You don’t throw your work to AI, but give the authenticity of people who use AI better than you’.”
