The pitfalls are coming as Trump’s Gaza peace plan enters its second phase


On the face of it, the announcement of the second phase of President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza looks like progress.

But there remains a huge lack of clarity and detail about the future of the strip and the 2.1 million Palestinians who live there.

In addition, there are many pitfalls.

First, Trump’s plan demands that Hamas, as well as other groups in Gaza, agree to disarm.

Announcing the second phase of the agreement, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said that failure to do so “will have serious consequences”.

But Hamas has so far steadfastly refused to give up its weapons, which it sees as tools to resist Israel’s decades-long military occupation.

If it continues in that position, there are far-right members of the coalition government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who are champing at the bit to continue the war and “get the job done”.

As the military shrinks sharply, US intelligence has long estimated that Hamas is likely recruiting more new members in Gaza than Israel has killed during the war.

The ceasefire, which has been in place since October last year, is tenuous at best.

Both sides accuse each other of repeated violations.

More than 450 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since they began, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

The Israeli military said three of its soldiers were killed in attacks by Palestinian armed groups during the same period.

Second, there is little clarity on the extent to which Israel will need to withdraw its forces from Gaza.

It has given no indication that it is ready to withdraw completely, insisting that a strong security presence in Gaza must be maintained.

Israeli officials have spoken of “a new reality” in Gaza, insisting that the strip will never return to what it was before Hamas launched its deadly attack on 7 October 2023.

Therefore, the dispute may continue as to how far the Israeli forces should withdraw.

Then there is the issue of management.

Who will run Gaza, if not Hamas, which came to power after winning the Palestinian elections almost exactly 20 years ago?

Who will provide police, security, schools, hospitals?

For more than a year now, there has been the idea that some sort of International Stabilization Force could provide security in Gaza.

Egypt, Turkey, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, have all been suggested as potential countries that could form this force.

But no one did and, again, the details are unclear.

Anyone seen “riding on the back of Israeli tanks” is likely to meet a frosty reception from Palestinians in Gaza.

Under Trump’s peace plan, Gaza is supposed to have three levels of governance.

At the lowest level, the strip will be governed by a new government of technocrats made up of figures from civil society within Gaza.

The names of its members were announced on Wednesday, with Hamas agreeing to have no role in the government.

On top of that there is an Executive Committee based outside of Gaza to oversee the work of the new government.

It is likely to be made up of non-Palestinians, with former British prime minister Tony Blair said to be one of those who will sit on the committee.

Blair is widely distrusted by the Palestinians, who are seen as too close to Israel, and for his role, along with former US president George W Bush, in the second Iraq War launched in 2003.

Finally, above the Executive Committee is the Board of Peace, with Trump as its chairman.

The current Prime Minister of Britain, Keir Starmer, the leader of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are said to be among the proposed members of the board.

Many Palestinians say having foreigners running Gaza smacks of colonialism.

The question is: do they have a choice?

And all the while, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains absolutely bleak.

Since the ceasefire was announced in October, more aid has been allowed into the strip, but aid agencies say it has not been enough.

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans remain homeless and live in makeshift tents.

The past few months in the region have seen severe winter weather, with heavy rain, strong winds and temperatures as low as 5C (41F).

Gaza experienced severe flooding, with buildings collapsing and tents destroyed.

Most of the children had little or no education for more than two years.

What does the future hold for them?

So, while the second phase of the peace plan looks like progress, there remain many reasons for pessimism.



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