Territorial gains in northeastern Syria, where government forces captured the cities of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have been a boon for Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar’a.
Since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024, negotiations have been ongoing with the SDF regarding the main Kurdish representatives of the Syrian integration into the Syrian Armed Forces. Al-Shar’a has used different tactics against the group, most recently a decree for Kurdish rights, as well as confronting the group militarily.
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The SDF’s loss is al-Shara and his government’s gain. But the most significant sign of Syria’s improved situation may come from the fact that US officials, who have long supported the SDF in their fight against ISIL (ISIS), have backed al-Shara and the Syrian Army following these latest developments.
Armistice and Treaty
These recent advances by the Syrian government have stripped the SDF of much of its leverage.
“It (Syrian government forces) was about taking control of the most resource-rich parts of SDF territory, which is the most Arab population in terms of population, so they played it well with a limited offensive, but at the same time, pitted the tribal networks against SDF rule; and once they did that, it was basically game over,” Robert, from King Robert College, London, told Al Jazeera.
When the Assad regime fell in December 2024, the SDF was reluctant to throw its hat into the ring with the new forces in Damascus. Negotiations between Majlum Abdi, the leader of the SDF, also known as Majlum Kobani, and al-Shara failed in an agreement on 10 March 2025 to integrate Kurdish-led forces into the Syrian government forces.
However, the details of the deal are yet to be worked out. The SDF did not want to give up the hard earned gains of the past 14 years of conflict. It has earlier demanded autonomous control or decentralized governance in the Northeast.
Recent clashes in Aleppo and the SDF’s withdrawal from the city across the Euphrates River have heightened tensions between the two sides. Syrian government forces advanced to the northeast and now hold territory including the cities of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor.
A A ceasefire was agreed upon Monday, but clashes continued Tuesday in northeastern Syria’s Hasakah region, as Kurds and the diaspora there feared an incursion by government forces.
Recent talks appear to have settled on a formula where the SDF leadership would control three Kurdish-led divisions of the Syrian army, while the rest of the fighters would integrate as individuals. Analysts said it now appears that personal consolidation is more likely to proceed.
“They (the Syrian government) have taken a big step by forcing the SDF to mobilize individually,” Syrian analyst Labib Nahhas told Al Jazeera. “But vetting will be a huge challenge because we’re talking about 50 to 70 or 80,000 soldiers, so it’s a huge intrusion from a security point of view.”
Kurdish rights
Prior to this significant development, the SDF had been negotiating with Damascus on some key issues. In addition to talks of unification, he wanted some form of autonomy or political decentralization and recognition of Kurdish rights.
On January 16, in the wake of fierce fighting between government forces and the SDF in Aleppo, al-Shar’a issued a decree Officially recognizing Kurdish as the “national language” and granting citizenship to all Kurdish Syrians.
The decree, which declared Newroz, the spring and new year festival celebrated by the Kurds, a national holiday and banned ethnic or linguistic discrimination, addressed a key demand of the SDF.
The Kurds were an oppressed minority in Syria under the Assad regime. Their language and identity were not officially recognized and often suppressed by the state.
Obeda Ghadban, a researcher at Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Travel, described the move as historic.
“He recognized the cultural, linguistic rights of Kurdish Syrians, a grievance that has been accumulating for decades,” he told Al Jazeera. “This was seen as a gesture of goodwill by the SDF and a re-invigoration of negotiations that have been going on for over a year now.”
Al-Shara announced a four-day ceasefire with the SDF on Tuesday and said that if a deal could be reached, government forces would leave the Kurdish-majority towns of Hasakah and Qamishli to handle their own security.
Despite the carrot-and-stick approach, some analysts felt al-Shar’a’s recognition of Kurdish rights was a political ploy.
“Had the same decree been issued six months earlier, given the relative calm between the two sides, I believe the situation would have been very different,” Thomas McGee, Max Weber Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, told Al Jazeera.
“The fact that Kurdish rights were not recognized in the first full year after the fall of al-Assad is truly significant. The suddenness of this decree in the context of major military developments shows that the Syrian government considers recognition of Kurdish rights a strategic issue and that such rights are considered innate and unconditional.”
Shortly after the announcement, al-Shar’a announced a military operation in the village of Deir Hafir, 50 km (31 mi) north of Aleppo, where SDF forces withdrew after evacuating the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsood and Ashrafieh in Aleppo. Some Syrians and analysts told Al Jazeera that the fighting in Aleppo had damaged the SDF’s reputation, even among some Kurds, but that this did not mean the Kurds would throw their weight behind the government.
“(Al-Shara) wanted to do it before the military operation,” Vladimir van Wilgenberg, an analyst of Kurdish politics in Erbil, Iraq, told Al Jazeera.
“Kurdish sentiment will not change much about the government because it does not recognize any form of local autonomy and both The main Kurdish party Some form of autonomy or decentralization is desired.
America and Turkey
International actors will also be paying attention to developments in northeast Syria.
Turkey appears to be the big winner in the latest developments. the country Alerted SDF He was “running out of patience” with the group in early January.
“Ankara has welcomed the ceasefire and the full integration agreement, and that is certainly in Turkey’s interest,” McGee said. “Finally, on the SDF/Self-Government integration, Turkey and Damascus share the same common red lines.”
There has also been talk of foreign fighters in SDF-controlled areas, which, according to the ceasefire agreement, required the SDF to expel any “PKK-related or affiliated individuals or operatives”.
Then there is the United States, which facilitated the ceasefire because of its close ties to the SDF and Damascus. The U.S. currently has about 900 troops in SDF-held parts of Syria to combat ISIL, and analysts say it is unlikely to withdraw troops.
But relations between Washington and Damascus have warmed considerably under the Trump administration.
Al-Shara, who was deemed a “terrorist” by the US when the Assad regime fell in 2024, visited the White House in November 2025, marking a remarkable turnaround in barely a year. Syria immediately after that visit joined Anti-ISIL coalition.
After a phone call with al-Shara, US President Donald Trump released a statement on Monday supporting Syria’s unity and “fight against terrorism”.
Not every US official was happy with recent developments. US Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump, posted on X on Tuesday his support for the SDF.
“You cannot unify Syria by using military force, as the Syrian government leader Ahmed al-Shara is trying to do,” he wrote. “This operation by Syrian government forces against SDF members is fraught with danger.”
There may be concerns about the reports of Graham et al 39 ISIL prisoners escape From a prison formerly held by the SDF, or on the other side, the SDF claims that government forces killed female Kurdish fighters.
But sentiment in America appears to be shifting heavily in favor of Damascus. On Tuesday afternoon, US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack posted on X that the US was supporting al-Shaara and choosing Damascus over the SDF.
“The biggest opportunity for the Kurds in Syria right now lies in the post-Assad transition under a new government led by President Ahmed al-Shar’a,” Barrack wrote. “This changes the logic of the US-SDF partnership: the original purpose of the SDF as the primary anti-ISIS force on the ground is largely obsolete, as Damascus is now willing and able to assume security responsibilities, including control of ISIS holding facilities and camps.”