The Grinch (R), an oil tanker suspected to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet, was spotted off the coast of Martigues near the port of Marseille-Fos on January 25, 2026, while being monitored by the French Navy.
Thibaut Moritz | Afp | Getty Images
President Donald Trump announced US trade agreement with India On Monday, he said India had pledged to stop buying Russian oil It is possible to buy from USA and Venezuelabut data shows that a shadowy fleet of tankers carrying authorized crude continues to unload at Indian ports.
Ship tracking by global data and analytics firm Kpler, shared with CNBC, shows four tankers in the process of being unloaded by Russia’s shadow fleet or sanctioned at Indian ports: the Giannis, offloading Ural at the Chennai refinery; Offloading to Urals at Nyxora, Paradip Oil Refinery; Unloading cargo to Urals at Tiburon, Vadinar oil refinery; and was tracked outside of Vadinar on Tuesday morning but had not yet been shot, Kpler reported.
In recent months, the global shadow fleet of sanctioned oil carriers, estimated at up to 1,400 ships, has navigated a U.S. crackdown on Venezuelan and Iranian oil and European intervention against a growing number of stateless tankers carrying Russian crude.
A recent Lloyd’s List analysis of the global shadow fleet in the wake of US military action in Venezuela found that at least five of the 50 tankers loaded with Venezuelan oil had completed deliveries to China with automatic vessel identification systems (AIS) operating normally and suggested that “enforcement pressures have not yet abated”.
Recently, the US Venezuela has completed its first sale of oil in the legal commodity market.
Sanctioned Russian oil has also faced increased enforcement. The French recently captured the Grinch tanker, it left Murmansk earlier this month with a cargo of Russian oil. The French boarded the ship to inspect the flag, aided by British observation and surveillance. The flag of the Comoros Islands has been recognized as a fake. The seizure was the first version of an EU-UK plan to intercept Russia’s shadow fleet. The sanctions and seizure of Russia’s shadow fleet are part of a series of moves aimed at cutting Russia’s energy revenues to reduce Moscow’s ability to continue its war in Ukraine.
India’s Russian oil imports reached a record this year.
“In 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia will account for 33 percent of the country’s total marine oil imports and 25 percent of Russia’s marine oil exports,” said Nils Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco. “A new trade deal between the US and India, according to US President Donald Trump, could end this trade,” he said.
But Kremlin officials backtracked, telling reporters they would not officially Heard from India that the Indian government has stopped buying oil.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also yet to publicly confirm the terms of the trade deal announced by Trump, although Indian officials have said an announcement is forthcoming. Trump’s announcement on the trade deal came days later The EU and India have signed a major trade deal reducing tariffs to zero on many goods over several years.
The Trump administration has pressured India to stop buying Russian oil during the trade war, and Trump said on Monday that India should buy oil from the United States or Venezuela. Rasmussen says that even if he stops importing Russian oil, he may buy more oil from the Persian Gulf instead.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, two-thirds of India’s crude oil and petroleum products came from the Persian Gulf. According to Bimco, in 2025, the import of these raw materials will decrease to 45%.
Rasmussen said he does not expect Russian oil exports to fall by the same amount as Russia seeks to find new buyers, even as it demands more concessions for buyers of Russian oil. The shadow fleet is often forced to sell at a discount, and those discounts are likely to increase as global enforcement measures intensify. Because of the sanctions, Russian oil is already trading at a lower price than crude oil sold on the public market.
Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said if India shuts the door on Russian oil, it would give other late-stage buyers more market power. “This may contribute to a decrease in Russian receipts. Barrels usually find a buyer. The problem is the price,” he said.
But some experts warn that the small market for Russian oil will make it difficult for the shadow fleet to find additional work to replace India’s.
“The only major country that buys Russian oil is China, and they probably have all the Russian oil they want,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
With Venezuela’s crude oil dwindling to feed the dark fleet and the Indian market likely to be shut down, Lipov says many of these vessels may be grounded or eventually broken.
But according to the book, the global shadow fleet is simplified and if there is an opportunity to carry sanctioned oil, the owners of these vessels will use it, for example Venezuela. “The shadow fleet moves from one area of demand to another, and if sanctions against other major producer exporters remain in place, we can still expect some shadow vessels to be used,” he said. “Tankers that were traded in Venezuela will now be traded in Iran and Russia.”
The US announced that it had seized the Bella-1 plane for violating sanctions. After recently returning to Russia, the vessel, known as the Marinera, was detained in the North Atlantic on a warrant issued by a US federal court following the USCGC Munro’s surveillance.
Source: @US_EUCOM | US Coast Guard | through X
Despite the removal of sanctioned crude oil, Russia quickly replenished its shadow fleet, adding ships that once carried Venezuelan oil. 17 ships were authorized in December has been reset to Russia. One of the tankers captured by the US in the Venezuelan oil blockade is a soon a Russian-flagged ship.
Oil experts say the light-sanctioned oil is a separate market from the regular on-board crude trade, with all the enforcement measures and tariffs continuing to change the economics of crude shipments. “General trade between nations is important,” Book said. “We’re seeing the flow of oil shifted by sanctions and then shifted again by tariffs. There will be logistical costs associated with these shifts.”
High costs come from transporting oil over long distances, as well as using middlemen to circumvent sanctions. The main example of the book was the transportation of Russian oil, which used to go to Europe and now often goes to China.
The book explained that the economics in the oil refining business, where margins are tight, favor cheap, sanctioned oil. “The concessions are very attractive to refiners,” he said, and that means barrels of sanctioned oil carried by the dark fleet “will find a home.” As long as there are sanctions, there are ways to circumvent and work around them,” the book added.
These temporary solutions are a plus for China, which is a major buyer of Russian and Iranian raw materials. “The heavier the barrel, the more profit it gives to the buyer and the discount to the seller. China will probably continue to look for cheaper barrels,” Book said.
The Marinera oil tanker is seen in Burghhead, Scotland on January 14, 2026. The Marinera oil tanker, formerly known as the Bella 1, entered UK waters at the request of the US to resupply with “critical supplies”. The Russian-flagged tanker was seized by US forces on January 7, 2026 between Iceland and Scotland on charges of violating sanctions by transporting oil to Venezuela, Russia and Iran.
Peter Summers | Getty Images
Lloyd’s Shadow Fleet Tracker, which covers around 1,400 ships carrying mainly sanctioned Russian oil, shows an increasing flow of stateless tankers carrying Russian oil docked in Malaysian waters. Although the government has promised to close it, the growth continues. Malaysia has a trade agreement with the US that restricts dealings with sanctioned entities.
Kpler’s maritime intelligence shows that U.S.-brokered pressure on Venezuela’s oil trade and sanctions on Russia and Iran are forcing many of these vessels to engage in ship-to-ship transfers as part of efforts to blackout the movement of sanctioned oil.
“Clearly there are still buyers for this sanctioned oil, namely China and India,” said Jean-Charles Gordon, Kpler’s vice president of marine and logistics. “China consumes half of Iran’s oil”.
In 2025, 251 vessels were loaded with sanctioned Iranian oil — 217 (86%) of which were sanctioned, vessels targeted by the government to identify them as carrying illegal oil, according to Kpler data. The remaining 34 vessels are in the active shadow fleet, moving authorized crude oil through fraudulent activities. Most of these ships (96%) were dark ship-to-ship transfers; 77% deceived their ship’s location; and 72% have turned off their ship’s location beacons for an extended period of time.
In 2025, there were 510 vessels loaded with Russian oil that were sanctioned, according to Kpler. Among them, 305 or 59% of the fleet were sanctioned. A further 86 ships, representing approximately 17% of the total fleet, are considered to be the “shadow fleet”. These ships also engaged in falsification of ship positions and extended AIS gaps.
“The Dark Fleet isn’t dying, it’s at sea, fragmented and extreme in behavior,” Gordon said.
