During decades, Reza Pahlavi lived in his hometown, searching for any sign of weakness in the benefits of the Iranian regime that his father had expelled, the last Shah.
Mostly, he has been a peripheral figure, accused by critics of lacking credibility and unable to form an organized opposition to challenge the theocratic leaders who seized power in 1979. But now, with Israeli Bombs and the Regime Locked in a Battle for its survival, he is betting That his moment has finally arrive.
“This was the first time all the years we saw the plains playing more for a moment for the change,” Pahlavi told the financial season.
Since Israel launched war against Iran Friday, Pahlavi, the highest profile was regularly against the “rise” and “Restoration of Iran”. To do so, he echoes Benjamin Netanyahu’s own test to publish the uprising of Iranthat caused many Iranians who suspect the Prime Minister of Israel prevents renewal of the regime.
But so far, there are no signs that either of their calls are listening. The long-term degradation of Iranians who were disturbed by their leaders, for today, it was replaced by their own pursuits for survival and their anger Rael Bomb.
Val by Nasr, Professor of Johns Hopkins School in Advanced International Studies, says that the state of increasing anti-Israel, “even if you are the pro-regime, the anti-regime” as a sense of nationalism.
“There is a count for the Islamic Republic; (citizens) it likes, but they are not happy to be invaded, they do not want their weapons against regime against the regime.”
The regime for many years is fighting with public destruction as an anger rose a wish, the youth of the adolescent rule, solitude and economic hardship. The disappointment explodes the streets with increased quantity over the past two decades.
Millions of people protest faced elections in 2009 in the known “green movement”. Three years ago, Young Women and Men demonstrated across Iranian cities, defiantly calling for an end to supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei’s rule following the death of 22-year-old The mahsa amino in police custody after he was arrested because it was not properly dressed in his hijab.
But on every occasion, the regime is violently placed in protests, while sometimes making small concessions with a bidding of domestic home.
Altogether, no international opposition structure moves.
Authorities target any signs of insulting, jailing activists, critics and former loyalists in the regime opposing the system.
Pahlavi, who did not return to Iran since 1978 when he left, aged 17, to study America, seeking to enjoy the US regime’s opponents. Now, he said, he offered himself as a “transitional leader” in a secular, democratic alternative to the Republic.
There are many experts in Iran, however, no doubt.
The analysts say that Pahlavi had some support to Iran, because he had set the failures of the regime and nostalgia for the pre-revolutionary times. But the extent of that support is debatable, and the Diaspora of Iran has long been blown into internal divisions and accusations that are not touched.
Pahlavi and others of the exiled opposition saw a similar opportunity to push the regime’s change in “women, life, freedom protesting in Amini’s death. But the Diaspora quickly fell as the main numbers changed each other, protests collapsed and the exiled opposition returned to political margins.
Israel’s bombing demands a long-distance threat to high grave today, but experts say that the consequences are still, for today’s objection.
“Launch a revolution or achieve regime change without the deployment of US troops, you need Charisma, you need someone who is willing to fight for you within Iran,” says Mohsen Milani, the author of Iran and the US opponent in the Middle East.
“You must specify an acceptable view for the future, and you should make a wide, country coalition against incumbent regime.” Very little evidence. “
He added that Israel’s attack expands rifts within the opposition: “Some are against it, while Mr. Pahlavi’s supporters have expressed support.”
“There are many people in Iran also opposing the Islamic Republic and pay their lives, with their lives,” said Milani, a professor at the University of South Florida. “It’s hard for me to see how they can just get away and let others come and grab.”
The added risk for Pahlavi, which met Netanyahu while the visit to Israel in 2023, so he as a colony with Iran support, the analysts said.
The 64-year-olds that Iranians are “Smart enough” to find out that it is not “Israel’s war on Iran”.
“The only traitor here is Khamenei,” he said.
Si Mehrzad Boroujerdi, usa ka akademikong US-American-American-American-American-American, bisan sa usa ka senaryo diin ang Israel ug ang US – napildi nga mapilde sa gahum, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, gipilde ang Iran, defeated Iran, defeated Iran, defeated Iran, defeated Iran, defeated Iran, defeated Iran, defeating the power of Pahlavi, not ending power, the story does not end there.
“Considering the political political politics of the country … many will look at him as a puppet of Israelites and Americans.”
The most organized opposition is Mujahhedin-e Khalq (Mek), an exiled group that enjoys US support from veteran Republican John Bolton. During the 1980s, Iraq supported the war in Iran, and the Islamic regime regularly accused them of the stylish protests and inadequate.
The analysts say the militant movement, which is often described as a cult, delight and fear of Iran, where it is accused of killing officials and civilians. It’s unlikely to get any offer support, they say.
“They can send their people to cause some disruption to the country,” says Boroujerdi. “But the real key question is: What force does this national muscle and organization and network support to make any effective?”
As a result, analysts say no obvious replacement replacement, inside or outside Iran. But what can be changed to the domestic groundscape from within the regime, Boroujerdi said, including soldiers and powerful revolutionary guards.
“The main point (Mao) .. Boroujerdi said.” At this time, we never saw any serious signs of elite explosions. ”
However the republic is in unrestrained territory, with the attacks of Israel’s leading military ranks, the network of network intelligence without managing Netanyahu without ruling Khamenei.
NASR said Iran could have a “yeltsin” moment, in reference to Boris Yeltsin who precipitated the end of the Soviet Union and became Russia’s first elected president.
“Those who are attracted to people are the one who will turn off the lights, which will provide for and heal relationships outside,” he said. “That’s the rally in the bureaucracy.”
The greatest fear of Iranians was the division of the multi-ethnic nation of 90mn people, witnessing the death of Sildor Silor Sadriin in Syria in Syria and Libya.
Milani said conflicts, as well as the Iranians’ own experience in the 1979 Revolution of Islam, the main class of change – the main driver of regime change.
“They became more hesitant to join unless they were given a degree of security that the republic of Islamic republics is better than today,” he said.
