Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight into the Premier League card and gives the treble at 7/1.
Chelsea vs Everton, Saturday 15:00 – PLAY SUPER 6!
December-January always exposes the fragility within the camp, and Chelsea are showing the same cracks that appeared this time last year, when they went through the Christmas period without a win in four, including a defeat at Ipswich.
Enzo Maresca is a process manager, but the caveat with those guys is clear – his teams are at their best when they’re fresh. While Chelsea have a record of 15 wins in 20 matches when their teams enter the game after five or more days between games, it tells the story.
Give him time and pop shows. Take away the rest? It all becomes hard work.
The Club World Cup, trips to the Champions League and commitments, the emotional burden on a young team leaves its mark. You can see that in their last games in recent defeats to Atalanta and Leeds.
Everton, on the back of four wins from five, should arrive buoyant and confident of carrying the result at 11/4 with Sky Bet on a draw no bet or 6/5 on a double chance offering some tasty value to bite into.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST: Everton double chance (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool – Brighton, Saturday 15:00 – PLAY SUPER 6!
Drawing lines against Liverpool at Anfield isn’t usually a betting theory to research – but under Fabian Hurzeller, Brighton are no ordinary team away from the elite and the numbers prove it.
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Egyptian footballer Mido has shared his opinion on whether Mohamed Salah should leave Liverpool following his post-match comments against Leeds.
When you delve into Brighton’s figures against the Premier League’s best in class, the picture becomes very interesting for those of us who like to bet when the prices are right.
From 10 games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City under this manager, Brighton have averaged a very impressive 16.1 shots per game with a very healthy 1.78 expected goals per game. That’s an incredible performance. That’s creating a chance for a title contender from a side that doesn’t even sniff a title challenge.
Brighton consistently pokes holes in high pressure systems as Hurzeler refuses to change his principles. The prize? Shots and shot chance to score.
We can jump on Brighton to register 12 or more shots on Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Burnley v Fulham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
A key advantage to take advantage of in the betting card market revolves around referee appointment. Prices rely heavily on team and league averages, while one of the most influential factors – referees – is still unusually weighted in the way odds are compiled.
Sky Bet have placed under 3.5 cards at 10/11 here – a fair line based on averages – but referee identity is everything in this market and Michael Oliver radically changes the story.
Oliver is a fascinating case study this season.
Michael Oliver is in charge of Burnley’s match against Fulham
Once one of the strictest enforcers in the Premier League, he has taken a significant turn towards a more hands-off approach. Whether it’s a conscious stylistic evolution or simply the natural rhythm of the matches he oversees, the stats tell us he’s averaging just 2.3 bookings per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.
SCORE OVERVIEW: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 3.5 cards (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Wolves, Saturday 20:00
Finding value when a team is at a high price is an art form that the best gamblers can consistently find. Arsenal are 1/10 to beat Wolves with Sky Bet – a price that tells you the market sees this as little more than a formality.
There are ways to turn big odds with short odds into something much better. And passing a goal angle is often the cleanest route, as we have managed this season at Arsenal. Our old friend Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet is a line that is appealing.
Arsenal don’t play goal football. Quite the opposite. In all competitions, their matches average just 2.67 goals per 90 minutes, a surprisingly modest output for a team perceived as a free-flowing force. Mikel Arteta’s men have recorded 14 wins this season and have also scored 3.5 goals.
This is how they work. They stifle games, not stretch them, so this one is unlikely to get out of hand for the Wolves.
SCORE OVERVIEW: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Arsenal to win under 3.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace v Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Crystal Palace have managed seven goals in their last four meetings with Manchester City, so the angle for both teams lights up like a Christmas tree – but the market is fully aligned at a very skinny 4/9 with Sky Bet.
However, there is a smarter way to attack this angle.
A sharper goal game is backing the players who score them better than anyone else in the Premier League in Erling Haaland and Jean-Philippe Matetta, who as a pair can be backed at 100/30 to both find the net via BuildABet with Sky Bet.
Haaland seems like a cheat code most weeks, but it’s the other name on the ticket that unlocks the price. Mateta has quietly transformed himself from cult figure to a legitimate Premier League player, and the numbers bear it out. In 2025, the two most prolific strikers in the Premier League are Haaland (23 goals) and Mateta (17).
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Nottingham Forest continue to have problems defending set-pieces.
Eleven goals conceded from such situations – the most in the Premier League – paints a pretty ugly picture, but the deeper numbers are even more devastating. Forest allow a goal from a set-piece every six shots they face from those scenarios.
And if you want to find value in Tottenham’s matchups, set-up angles remain a fertile way to do so. Thomas Frank takes this part of the game very seriously – a master of the marginal gain and with seven goals in the Premier League from corners this season, puts Spurs second in that measure behind Arsenal with eight.
Cristian Romero scores as he defends – with commitment, aggression and a hint of melodrama. Spurs have increasingly adjusted their deliveries to target him as first contact and he featured twice in the 2-2 draw with Newcastle. At 15/2 with Sky Bet it’s worth a swing in the goalscorer market anytime.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Christian Romero’s double earned Spurs a point at Newcastle
Sunderland v Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Sunderland are ninth in the Premier League table and have received huge praise for their involvement and performances. That’s right.
But the basic numbers? They are waving a big red flag. According to Opta’s expected points model, Sunderland should be 19th – behind Wolves.
If you’re repeatedly winning close matchups while flirting with losing the base battle, and then losing matches by a large number on the metric, that usually means you’re overperforming. It’s here.
Strip away the emotion, the vibes, the narrative, the love for Granit Xhaka, and the Black Cats’ performances put them second bottom in the metrics that usually matter most when it comes to assessing overall performance levels.
And when results and team numbers get so far apart, that elastic tends to snap at some point. It could be here too, with Newcastle looking at 5/4 with Sky Bet to win away from home.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
West Ham v Aston Villa, Sunday 14:00, live on Sky Sports
Nuno Espirito Santo and Unai Emery have crossed paths nine times as managers in the Premier League and La Liga. And on eight of those nine occasions, both teams scored. Different teams, different countries, different contexts, but the same goal outcome.
Emery’s obsession with vertical runners and bold build-ups, compared to Nunn’s knack for soaking up pressure but always offering a threat on the break often produces a game where both teams have plenty of space to strike.
Under Nuno, the Hammers are still working through some growing pains. The spirit has improved, the structure is taking shape, but the balance is not quite there. Both teams have scored in six of West Ham’s last seven games. Should come again and the draw also looks like a big runner.
Combining both of these angles gives a 3/1 shot to attack with Ski Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brentford v Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
In the world of the player foul market, edges don’t last long. A tactical change here, a role change there and suddenly a player who usually takes one cheap free kick a game becomes much faster. The trick is to catch the moment before the market does.
And that’s why Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be fouled at least twice at 5/4 with Sky Bet is a bet to consider.
Leeds’ recent change in approach to a far more direct style in the last three matches, aimed squarely at Calvert-Lewin, has completely changed the dynamic of the offense around him. He is the target of long diagonals, flicks and contested tackles and has drawn six fouls in his last two and a half appearances for Leeds.
Meanwhile, Brentford aren’t shy about contact and their centre-backs defend aggressively, meaning this price tag for Calvert-Lewin is worth it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester United v Bournemouth, Monday at 8pm, live on Sky Sports
There are certain annual traditions that you can set your clock to when Christmas rolls around. Mariah Carey is thawing out after 11 months of inactivity, and Antoni Iraola’s teams are becoming very hard to beat.
Under Iraol, Bournemouth played 14 Premier League games in December, losing just two, while winning seven and drawing five.
His high-intensity, high-rep style tends to peak as other teams begin to creak under the holiday pile-up. Bournemouth’s wider form supports them too.
They are unbeaten in four meetings with Manchester United and are stylistically one of the worst type of teams for Ruben Amorim’s side as they are full of energy, tactically trained and relentless in transition.
United still vacillates between functionality and happiness. But one thing that is consistent is how unreliable they are. Bournemouth draw no bets at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
PREDICTION OF RESULTS: 1-2
Jones Knows is your best bet…
1-point treble: Everton double chance, Arsenal win and under 3.5 goals and under 3.5 bookings at Fulham v Burnley (7/1 with Sky Bet)