Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight into the Premier League weekend and tips Manchester City to win the exciting Manchester derby.
Manchester United – Manchester City, Saturday at 12.30, live on Sky Sports
Watch the Manchester derby live on Saturday 17th January, 12.30pm kick-off
Pep Guardiola enjoys playing with his shiny new toy.
Antonie Semenho has scored for Manchester City and his all-time goalscorer angle for this Manchester derby at 15/8 with Sky Bet is really appealing.
What really stood out in the win over Newcastle was how different Semenho makes this Manchester City attack. City have brilliance, control and structure coming out of their ears, but what they don’t always have is a raw, aggressive directness. Semenyo brings it in buckets.
Defenders are obsessed with Erling Haaland – that will only help Semeny. That creates pockets of space and Semenho is smart enough and aggressive enough to take advantage of them. Whether starting out wide on the left, drifting inside from the right or appearing around Haaland, he constantly sniffs out danger rather than waiting for it.
And, for whatever reason, he seems to be getting space against Manchester United and he’s relishing it. Semenho has scored in his last three appearances against United, including that crazy 4-4 draw at Old Trafford earlier this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Antonie Semenho scores (15/8 from Sky Bet)
Chelsea v Brentford, Saturday at 3 p.m – PLAY SUPER 6!
Brentford playing at Stamford Bridge no longer feels like a mismatch – in fact, it’s becoming a fixture they quietly look forward to. They have lost just once in their last eight away games in west London and that tells you everything about the mentality of this team. No fear.
And right now, they’re absolutely singing.
Brentford are in the midst of their best Premier League unbeaten run of the season – six games unbeaten, with four wins from their last five. And since December 14, no Premier League team has won more points than Pčelica (14). They are 11/10 with Sky Bet on the double chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Leeds v Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Leeds are a great watch and their games are quite chaotic by design. They play on the edge, get in your face and ask questions of the opposition, but also cause pressure. In their last 18 matches, they have scored an average of 3.5 goals in their games and have only kept one goal in that period.
Fulham arrive as the perfect goalscoring dance partner with over 2.5 looking very generous at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
They have scored in their last 12 matches in all competitions, showing a level of consistency in an attack that travels well. Marco Silva’s side don’t need huge dominance to find the net either – they are sharp in transition, clever in half-spaces and dangerous from wide areas.
SCORE OVERVIEW: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool v Burnley, Saturday at 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Arne Slott’s Liverpool are starting to look like a serious team again.
There was a big shift in their defensive structure. Slott clearly prioritized control without the ball, giving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate proper protection in front of him rather than leaving them exposed, which in turn reduced the silly mistakes that cost them goals.
In the last eight games, Liverpool have conceded only five goals. It’s not smoke and mirrors either. The expected goals against data supports this well at 0.8 per 90, pointing to a side that limit high-quality chances rather than relying on last-ditch saves or goalkeeping heroics.
When you combine Liverpool’s improved defensive process with Burnley’s limited attacking threat, Liverpool to win nil shapes up as a tricky play at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Sunderland v Crystal Palace, Saturday 3 p.m – PLAY SUPER 6!
Crystal Palace arrive on the back of that damaging FA Cup exit, knocked out in the third round by non-league Macclesfield. The instinctive reaction is to expect a fierce response. But history strongly rejects that idea.
Looking at the last 13 Premier League teams relegated by Ligue 1 or below at that stage, the next game’s record is poor: three wins, four draws and six defeats. Even those three wins were minimal – a one-goal advantage. No evidence of backlash. If nothing else, the hangover lasts.
Sunderland remain unbeaten at home this season – a run built on energy, structure and crowds that make the Stadium of Light a very unpleasant place to visit. They look a great price for a draw without a bet at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Tottenham vs. West Ham, Saturday at 3 p.m
Jarrod Bowen and Crisencio Summerville are livewires for West Ham. Stop them and you’ll mostly stop West Ham.
The problem for the visitors is that they come up against a Tottenham side designed specifically to take that weapon away.
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Speaking on the Transfer Talk podcast, Athletic’s Dan Kilpatrick explains why, despite Conor Gallagher being a good option for Tottenham Hotspur, it raises questions about the squad Thomas Frank is building
One of the key traits of Thomas Frank’s Spurs is how well they manage moments of transition. They don’t allow games to stretch, recover their form quickly and stifle counter-attacks before they get going. This is backed up by numbers.
On the season, the Spurs conceded the second fewest fast breaks in the league (11) – and most importantly, they didn’t concede a single fast break goal.
There is also a very strong angle under Franco in those nine of his 10 wins as the Spurs boss went clean. When Tottenham win, they don’t just win, they close the door. It’s 2/1 again with Sky Bet.
SCORE OVERVIEW: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Tottenham to win nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly becoming a magnet for fouls. Not because it’s theatrical, but because Arsenal use it. He aggressively cuts in during build-ups, carries the ball forward under pressure and is constantly involved in physical duels in set pieces. That combination naturally invites contact and the referees were happy to blow their whistles.
Recent numbers underscore that trend. Gabriel has been fouled at least once in nine of his last 10 starts, averaging 1.53 fouls drawn per 90. That’s a healthy baseline for a center back, and puts the 2+ foul line within reach in the right type of game at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Here, he comes against Igor Jesus.
The Forest forward is aggressive, raw and still learning when to go in and when to back off. He has committed 22 fouls in his recent matches.
SCORE OVERVIEW: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Gabriel will be fouled +2 times (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolves v Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
The Wolves have quietly become a difficult team to score against. The standout trend in their recent performances is defensive improvement, and that’s backed up by some serious underlying numbers.
In the last six games, only Arsenal can better Wolves’ expected goals against process of 0.99 per 90. That’s elite territory. Wolves faced Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that period. So while the sample size is small, the quality of the opposition gives those numbers real credibility.
We know Newcastle are a very different proposition away from St James’ Park – and it’s the attack that’s most impressive. In the last 17 away games in the Premier League, they scored more than 1.5 goals only three times.
Newcastle have averaged just 1.2 goals per away game in that run, struggling to create sustained pressure or high-quality chances on their travels. 6/5 with Sky Bet again under 1.5 away goals looks like a winner in waiting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Aston Villa v Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes’ away record against top opposition is appalling.
Going all the way back to his days at West Ham, his record away to Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City is 20 defeats from 21 games. It’s a brutal comeback.
Those games also follow the same script: sit deep, limit damage, slow the tempo, and hope to stay in the contest as long as possible. Now, this match doesn’t technically fall into that category – but at what point do we start calling Aston Villa an elite home team?
Villa Park has become a fortress. They have won their last 11 games at home, a run that includes wins over Arsenal and Manchester City. The intensity, structure and belief that Unai Emery has created is right up there with the best in the league.
Moyes’ away games are rarely chaotic. Since returning to Everton, just two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 goals, averaging just 1.8 goals per 90. That makes the combination of a Villa win and under 3.5 goals making sense at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Brighton v Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Bournemouth’s away games this season are crazy. They score an average of 4.8 goals per away game. No, it’s not a typo. Yes, almost five goals per game.
The markets are completely aligned for goals in this case, which naturally pushes us towards a goal-scoring angle at any time.
And who better to shoot than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is starting to look like his old self, a nightmare for defenders. His movement, bursts at the back and instinct for goal are on display again – as his goal against Manchester City shows.
History gives us even more confidence. Mitoma has scored five goals in his last six games against Bournemouth – that bit of psychological advantage over the opposition is not factored into the 5/2 price with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | BET JONES KNOWS: Karu Mitoma to score (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows Best Bets…
- Double 1 point each on Antonie Semenio and Karou Mitoma both score (9/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1 point double at over 2.5 goals in Leeds v Fulham and Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 goals (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1 point on Tottenham to win nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1 point on Gabriel to get +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)