Erin Cara sings in movie: “I’ll live forever” fame. “I’m going to learn how to fly.” Both are physically impossible, but that’s pop for you. If Cara had sang something slightly less catchy, “I’m going to live until I’m 80, or maybe 100,” she would be on to something — albeit a less ambitious one.
fame Its vast collection of tights and primary colors was released in 1980, when average life expectancy was 73 years in Europe and 74 years in the United States. By 2030, these numbers will rise to 86 and 81 years respectively (Europe is now much healthier than the United States). In the West, more and more people are getting older. More than just a simple social reality, this is quickly becoming a critical issue for business leaders.
As Rita McGrath points out in her seminal 2019 book, Just the Right Thing, having insight into what’s going on around you is a core competency of any senior executive: Observe the corner. “Many of us have experienced inflection points, when everything changes irrevocably,” the longtime Columbia Business School professor wrote.
“(But) when you look at the true nature of the inflection point, you see a different story. It’s similar to Hemingway’s character Mike Campbell in The sun still risesresponded to being asked how he became bankrupt. “Gradually,” he said. “Then suddenly.”
Those worried about the bubble say AI has reached an “aha” moment and is dangerous. For decades, climate change and sustainable development have been in an “incremental” phase, much to the dismay of environmental activists. “Longevity” – the challenge of population aging – is in the “gradual” phase. It may “suddenly” shift sooner than many think.
Read more: $20,000 longevity weekend for those who realize that more time is the ultimate luxury
More than one fifth of the EU population is aged 65 or over. In the United States, that number is one in six, or about 61 million people, and by 2050 that number will jump to more than 80 million. The number of people celebrating 100 years in the United States will double.
In the EU, the share of working-age adults aged 15 to 64 will fall from 64% of the population in 2022 to 54% in 2100. The EU’s total fertility rate fell to 1.38 live births per woman in 2023, the lowest level recorded since comparable data collection began in 1961 and well below the 2.1 needed to keep the population stable without immigration. According to the World Population Review, the populations of Portugal, Spain, Germany, Italy and Poland are declining. Without immigration, this decline would become even more dramatic.
80%
Average health care expenditures for individuals occur in the last decade of life
1.38
Live births per woman – Fertility rates in the European Union in 2023
54%
Proportion of working-age adults in the EU by 2100
How do we prepare for a world where declining birth rates, an aging workforce, and “old age” liabilities like pensions and emergency health care are draining resources? Currently, the “costs” of old age are too high and the “opportunities” are not fully exploited. If we stay healthy longer, reskill and rethink what retirement looks like, millions of people could potentially work into their 80s.
Andrew Scott is an economics professor and longevity expert and chief scientist at the Oxford technology billionaire Larry Ellison Institute. Ellison, who once said, “Death has never meant anything to me,” has put generative biology at the heart of the institute’s work and has invested hundreds of millions of pounds of his own money into research. He was right to do so.
“A child born today has a 50 percent chance of living to be 90,” Scott told me.
“Almost all employment growth in the future will come from people over 50. In the UK, for example, by the age of 50, around 80% of people are in work; by the age of 65, this has dropped to 30%. If we could halve the rate of decline, we would see GDP growth of 4%. This is the closest thing to a free lunch I have seen.”
“A child born today has a 50% chance of living to be 90…”
Andrew Scott, economics professor and longevity expert
Sir Jonathan Symonds, chairman of pharmaceutical giant GSKbelieves that our “healthspan” (living healthy) is as important as our longevity (living long). Last fall, I found at an event hosted by business leaders and policymakers in London hosted by Oliver Wyman that more than 80% of an average individual’s health care spending occurs in the last decade of life.
Simonds believes that if we can identify signs of future health problems and take action early, aging will not be dominated by the language of burden and aging. By recognizing the concept of lifelong health and broader well-being as a social and economic good, “How long will I live?” becomes important whether you are 18 or 80. All those young people sweating it out in spin class should be commended. A free gym membership from your employer is more than just a great perk.
Research compiled by Oliver Wyman wealth It shows that wellness rituals are booming, especially for the wealthy. When asked whether their overall well-being was likely to improve over the next 12 months, 65% of those in the higher income group said yes. If you have the time, money, support of family and friends, and local facilities, you are likely to be healthier than if you don’t. Low-income groups often write “none of the above” on the form.
“The longevity economy is the next growth frontier, but the K-shaped divide in health care is widening into two different worlds,” Rupal Kantaria, a partner at Oliver Wyman Forum, told me. “High-income consumers invest in customized prevention and longevity. At the low end, disease and debt pile up. Consumers in the middle are caught in the middle — too wealthy to have access to a safety net and too stretched to make progress.”
Aging populations require new responses from governments and businesses – from workforce planning and preventive health care to new social models and the built environment and more active lifestyles. Like artificial intelligence and climate change, demography is a “total effect” phenomenon that forces us to change the way we think about every function we undertake and every strategic initiative we execute. This is a conversation that requires participation by people of all ages—from teenagers considering a 60-year working life to 60-somethings who want to spend their last 30 years healthy and productive. We may not live forever, but most of us will live a long time.
