As they enter the second half of 2025, U.S. CEOs feel more confident, but not enough to undernumber their staff as they worry about the headwinds of President Trump’s tariff plans.
The conference committee released their US CEO Confidence Report In the third quarter of Thursday, it was found that the CEO had exited their peak uncertainty levels in the second quarter.
For example, 71% of CEOs in the last quarter were Prepare for a recession Another 12% expect economic transformation and spill over into other parts of the planet. By comparison, the third quarter had a positive rosy color on its outlook: Now only 33% believe there will be a recession, and only 3% believe there will be a global impact on the rest of the planet.
This kind of friendliness is not necessarily the response of economists. This week, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ blockbuster labor report (other data) made him realize that the United States is “on the cliff of a recession.”
Although local leaders may not agree, they demonstrate why 2025 may be a cost-efficient year as bosses tighten their belts on their payroll.
Conference committee found 34% of CEOs Their net labor force is expected to decrease Over the next 12 months, up to 28% from 28% in the second quarter, both cutting jobs or not replacing the role of the escapee.
Indeed, the CEO share that plans to expand employees has also dropped from 28% to 27%, while 39% of CEOs said they plan to maintain the size of the workforce, down from 44% in the second quarter.
Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Vice Chairman of the Business Council and Emeritus Chairman of the Conference Committee, “Since 2020, the CEO plans to shrink his staff share beyond the share seeking to expand, although most stocks continue to be expected to change almost (39%, below 44%).”
Workers who leave or are fired may face more difficult times to return to the job market. Macquarie’s North American economist wrote in a note to clients this week that some of the softness in the recent BLS reports came from notes from layoffs, but from people who couldn’t re-enter the market.
David Doyle and Chinara Azizova noted that initial claims about unemployment remained low, suggesting that layoffs were not spikes, but that ongoing claims were higher, suggesting that those fired found landing roles more difficult.
Indeed, data from the Duo Added Vacancy and Labor Transfer Survey (JOLTS) suggests that the number of unemployment appears to be the steepest among labor entrants and reentrants, suggesting that those with less professional history will find it difficult to step on the ladder.
“It is important that the economic consequences of moving from unemployment (and loss of income) are far greater than those developed by new workforce participants who have not found a job,” they noted.
Management Cost
As the White House tariff system increases with the increasing number of chains of stores worldwide, companies face increased costs.
The vast majority of business leaders (93%) show that they look for cost-efficiency by deploying AI or automation to reduce overhead. 64% said they were giving prices to consumers, while another 16% said they were still considering it.
This is more than part of the expressway shown in previous surveys. For example, New York Federal Reserve Report In June, 45% of service companies intend to expand their tariff-related growth.
“The CEO’s confidence recovered in the third quarter after the second quarter collapse, but there was no signal, which indicates a return to optimism,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at the conference committee. “The improvement is that tariff disputes between the United States and China are becoming less and less and are likely to reflect on the ongoing progress of trade negotiations.
“The CEO’s perception of the current economic situation has also improved their six-month expectations for the economy as a whole. The CEO’s assessment of the current situation in his industry – a measure not yet included in the topline confidence measure – has also recovered from recovery, but is still on pessimistic territory, which has continued 36% of 36% for the next 12-18 months, q3”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””’
