Crude oil futures continued to rise on Sunday as markets weighed potentially transformative events in Iran, which has been roiled by protests across the country.
U.S. oil prices rose 0.56% to $59.45 a barrel and Brent crude rose 0.52% to $63.67 a barrel amid reports that President Donald Trump is weighing military options against Iran to follow through on his threat to launch an attack if the government kills protesters.
Iran produces 3 million to 4 million barrels of oil a day, and protests have spread across the country. economic crisis. human rights organizations estimate hundreds of people die due to government repression sporadic attempts by the regime Efforts to appease the Iranians failed.
The government last week cut off the country’s internet access, slowing the flow of information about the latest developments. But various reports and expert assessments suggest the unrest is posing a significant threat to Tehran’s authority.
The Institute for War Studies (ISW) said cracks were emerging especially in the security apparatus that maintained the leadership’s power.
“There are further signs that the ongoing protests are challenging the ability and willingness of Iranian security forces to suppress them,” the think tank said in a report. recent reports. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Intelligence Organization issued a statement on January 10 saying it was ‘addressing possible abandonment.'” This statement suggests that some Iranian security forces may have defected, or that the regime is seriously concerned about this possibility. “
It cited other reports noting that some officials expected the regime to fall, that the army in one city refused to fire on protesters, and that the government might deploy regular troops.
The ISW says these rank-and-file troops, known as “Artesh,” are less ideological and more representative of the Iranian population than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This increases the risk of possible defections from Atesh forces who are not trained to respond to civil unrest and suggests that internal security forces are stretched thin, the report added.
one Analyze separately from ISW Pointing out that the government views the protests as a military issue rather than a law enforcement issue. It also said Tehran “took the rare step of using Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ground forces to suppress protests that it may view as posing a dire security threat to the regime.”
Energy markets are pricing in the impact of political unrest in Iran, a key OPEC member with the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves. In fact, anti-government protests have spread to Iran’s oil industry, with workers at a major refining and petrochemical company going on strike.
market tracking Kepler said in X’s post On Saturday, the Iranian regime faced a turning point and came under unprecedented pressure.
“While a full-blown collapse remains a low-probability event, rising risks have driven up geopolitical premiums in oil markets. Despite global surpluses, any disruption through factional conflict, export restrictions or external intervention could lead to a near-term price spike,” the report added.
“In the medium term, a regime change could lift sanctions and reshape trade flows, with European, Indian and Japanese refiners expected to benefit, while Chinese independents and Middle Eastern producers face tougher competition.”