The energy market is the focus of attention The United States bombs Iran’s main nuclear sitea key crossing point in which oil-producing nations can threaten global exports.
The attack led to a direct attack on Iran and escalated the conflict a week and a half ago when Israel launched its own extensive air strike campaign.
But while global markets are expected to see initial shock, there are other mitigation factors that can mitigate the blow.
“As the risk premium grows, oil is expected to open sharply with a 7-10% gap. But don’t fool it, this may not continue.” Energy Analytics Inc. kpler posted on x.
According to the closing price of Brent crude on Friday, a 10% jump will bring the global oil benchmark to nearly $85 a barrel.
Kerpur pointed out that Iran’s ability to retaliate was limited, saying the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be an attack on energy infrastructure belonging to the Gulf Cooperation Council, which is a disadvantage in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Nevertheless, the geopolitical shock from the unprecedented U.S. attack on Iran should also lead to more crude oil supply reaching the market and mitigate any price increase.
OPEC+ production in August increased by 411,000 barrels or more a day, Kepoor said. This will add a series of similar productions in recent months.
The Hormuz Strait is the primary idea of the market The key choke In global energy trade. The equivalent of 21% of global oil liquid consumption, about 21 million barrels per day flowing through narrow waterways.
On Sunday, the Iranian parliament approved the closure of the strait, although security officials have not signed it yet.
Such closures may require the use of mines, patrol boats, aircraft, cruise missiles and diesel submarines, while cleaning up the strait can take weeks or months.
In a note last week, FX Research head George Saravelos German BankIt is estimated that a complete disruption to Iran’s oil supply and the worst-case scenario of closing the Strait of Hormuz could be sent to oil prices above $120 per barrel.
But closing the straits will also kill Iran’s own oil exports, more than 90% of which went to China and destroyed the Iranian economy.
As a result, the closure of the strait is Iran’s retaliation options This would put the survival of its regime at risk, meaning Tehran’s reaction could be elsewhere.
“Freight damage will be the story to watch,” Kepoor said. “Middle East Gulf and Red” ocean The threat of Houthi attacks has increased, especially mid-way distillation, especially benefiting more from distillers in the west of Suez. ”
