Military man to be sworn in as civilian president

From the moment he seized power in September 2021, Guinea’s Mamadi Doumbouya hit an impressive figure.

Just 36 years old at the time, the broad-shouldered colonel, who stood over six feet (1.8m), dressed in military fatigues, mirrored sunglasses and a red beret made quite an impression when the coup was announced.

A relatively unknown member of an elite army unit, he asserted that the government of ousted President Alpha Condé disregarded democratic principles and that the rights of citizens were being trampled upon.

After more than four years of acting as interim president, and going back on a promise not to run for the presidency of the country, Doumbouya, now 41 years old, is set to be sworn in as the elected head of state on Saturday.

The sober, disciplined and private man won 87% of the vote in the December election against a severely depleted field.

Former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, now in exile, described the process as a charade that produced “fabricated” results.

While appearing to enjoy some popular support, critics have questioned Doumbouya’s democratic credentials as some political parties have been banned, activists have mysteriously disappeared and media outlets have been closed.

Scrolling back through the social media accounts from the president’s office has a sense of a carefully curated image.

The army man, who is now a general, has, for the main, ditched the camouflage in favor of a baseball cap and tracksuit, or a boubou – traditional Guinean clothing of loose garments with intricate embroidery. Shades though sometimes of the evidence.

He is shown in photos of the opening of schools, or transport infrastructure and mining or cycling in the streets of the capital, Conakry. The message is clear: this is a man of action working for the people.

“It presents an image of someone who will be close to civilians, a civilian leader and will be representative of the people,” Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Dakar-based security intelligence firm Control Risks, told the BBC.

“In some ways it distanced itself from what brought him to power – a coup – and the fact that his entire career was in the military.”

In the 15 years before he took power, Doumbouya gained a lot of international experience, including being educated at the master’s level in France and serving in the French Foreign Legion. He was also in Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, Central African Republic and worked in close protection in Israel, Cyprus and the UK.

But wearing civilian clothes may not be entirely sincere, according to some analysts.

“I am not sure that I am convinced that he has moved from being a military person. I think that the military costume will remain even if he facilitates the return to civilian order,” said Aïssatou Kanté, a researcher at the West Africa office of the Institute of Security Studies.

He mentioned a ban on political demonstrations, the exclusion of Doumbouya’s main challengers in the December election and the suspension of the main opposition parties.

Human rights campaigners are demanding to know the whereabouts of two activists – Oumar Sylla (known as Foniké Menguè) and Mamadou Billo Bah – who have not been seen since July 2024. They suspect that the men were taken by the military.

Press freedom organization Reporters Without Borders also expressed concern that journalist Habib Marouane Camara has been missing for more than a year. It describes how journalists now censor themselves and fear what will happen to them.

However, the 2021 coup was widely welcomed in the country and since then Doumbouya appears to have remained a popular figure.

The polling organization Afrobarometer found that between 2022 and 2024 the proportion of people who trust the president either “partially” or “a lot” grew from 46% to 53%.

The president-elect may not have a clear ideology guiding him but for Kanté his emphasis on Guineans taking control of their own destiny has become very important.

“This is what keeps coming in official talks – this confirmation of political and economic sovereignty,” he told the BBC.

In his speech to the country a few days into the new year, he struck a tone of reconciliation, calling on all Guineans to build a country that is peaceful and “fully acknowledged” sovereignty.

In a country that continues to face high levels of poverty despite abundant natural resources – including the world’s largest reserves of bauxite, which is used to make aluminum – this idea struck a chord.

The government’s message about the development of Simandou’s extensive iron ore resources highlights the potential benefits for the people.

The three billion tons of ore available in a remote southern part of the country, which began to be exported last month, could change the global iron market, as well as Guinea’s fortunes.

Authorities have said that revenue from the project, which is partly owned by Chinese miners as well as the British-Australian corporation Rio Tinto, will be invested in new transport infrastructure as well as health and education.

The success or otherwise of Simandou could define Doumbouya’s presidency.

He appears determined to keep some of the processing and value-added parts of the industry in Guinea to ensure greater benefits.

Across the wider mining sector, his government canceled several contracts last year where it felt the companies were not investing in Guinea – a move that led a UAE-based company to take the country to an international court.

“This move towards resource nationalism makes him look like a local hero. He seems to be really fighting for the rights of his citizens, even if that means business interruptions,” said analyst Ochieng.

The emphasis on sovereignty also leads to a pragmatic approach to international relations, say observers. Unlike coup leaders elsewhere in West Africa, Doumbouya did not directly reject the former colonial power of France in favor of Russia.

However, despite his French background and having a French wife, he was not accused of being a puppet in Paris.

Doumbouya really wants to be seen as someone who runs things in the interest of the country.

On Saturday, the president will preach a message of national unity and hope that he can start a new era of prosperity in Guinea.