“The real contribution to global growth is more from Asia Pacific than from the Americas or Europe,” David Mann, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Mastercard, said in an interview. wealth.
Mann praised adequate investment, particularly in related technology and infrastructure. artificial intelligence constructionpromoting resilient growth in Asia. Asia-Pacific is unique in that three-quarters of its foreign direct investment comes from other parts of the region rather than non-Asian sources, he added.
As the United States becomes an increasingly unreliable trading partner, Asian countries are looking to build supply chains with their neighbors. “More investment is going into other markets in the region, from China to Japan and South Korea, to help expand and diversify supply chains and capacity across multiple markets,” Mann said.
ASEAN’s uneven growth
Mastercard predicts growth trajectories in Southeast Asia will diverge next year. Among the ASEAN-5 countries (the five founding members and largest economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Indonesia and the Philippines will grow steadily, while growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand will slow.
“We think there will be some support from Indonesia, from fiscal policy and investment expansion,” Mann said, adding that he expected “steady growth” (real GDP growth of 5%) in Southeast Asia’s most populous country.
In the Philippines, growth will be stronger in 2026 as growth this year is more modest and analysts expect multiple one-off shocks in 2025.
Thailand, on the other hand, is going through a “weak period,” which Mann described as one of the region’s slower-growing economies.
Mastercard predicts that Thailand’s real GDP growth will slow to 1.8% in 2026. Mann added that the country faces “relatively large” demographic challenges, noting that the country Rapid transition to a super-aging society as birth rate hits record lows.
rising middle class
However, Mann believes there are reasons to be optimistic about growth in Southeast Asia.
“Even compared to Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America and the EMEA region, ASEAN itself is an important global player,” he said. “This is an important area where the middle class and urbanization are still growing, especially in a place like this Vietnam“.
The young region’s growing affluence will also increase consumer spending, further stimulating economic growth. Southeast Asia’s relatively young, digitally savvy population also provides a stable customer base chasing the latest consumer trends.
“If you produce in Indonesia, you sell there as well because it’s a huge market – more than 40% of ASEAN’s population is in Indonesia itself,” Mann said.
Wealthier groups are also likely to travel more. “As more and more people become more affluent, they are no longer just buying things but looking for experiences – and travel is at the center of that,” Mann said.
The post-pandemic recovery in tourism is also a boon for Southeast Asia, a popular destination for regional and global tourists. In 2025, Thailand in particular HBO’s hit series ‘The White Lotus’ sees surge in visitors after season 3 releaseswhich was filmed in several cities in Thailand, including Koh Samui, Phuket and Bangkok.
Globally, alternative destinations (or destination deception) is also becoming increasingly popular as travelers seek to get off the beaten path. “That means you can see more places opening up, bringing visitors in – places they’ve never been before,” Mann explained. This will stimulate job creation and infrastructure investment and spread the economic benefits of tourism to different parts of the country.
“In places like Thailand or Malaysia, we see increasing dispersion in spending shares. In the past, the top five destinations accounted for the largest share of all visitor spending in the country, and this share has steadily declined year on year,” Mann said.