The future of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is unclear as his coalition appears to have lost a majority in the House of Lords in the election, while the right-wing populist party’s general election has made huge gains.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been dominating almost since 1955, and its partner Komeito had to win 50 seats in the vote on Sunday, but they only won about 41 seats.
Voters angry at inflation turned to other parties, especially “Japanese No. 1” Sancito, which is reminiscent of the agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump with its “anti-globalist” drive.
Just months after the collapse, the Isbon alliance also lost a majority in the House of Commons, and in 15 years, the worst was the worst outcome.
Ishiba, 68, is a self-declared policy “geek” when he was seen as a safe hand when he won the LDP leadership in September (fifth attempt) and launched a nervous attack on his future later Sunday.
“It’s a difficult situation and we have to be very humble and serious,” Ishiba told broadcaster NHK. When asked about his future, he simply said he “can’t say it easily”.
“Unless we see the end result, we can’t do anything, but we want to be very aware of our responsibilities,” Ishiba added.
If he leaves, it is unclear who may step up the 11th time since 2000, as the government needs opposition support in both chambers.
“Ishiba may be replaced by others, but it is not clear who will be the successor,” Hidehiro Yamamoto, professor of politics and sociology at Tsukuba University, told AFP.
Rice price
After years of stagnation or decline in prices, consumers in the world’s fourth-largest economy have been squeezed by inflation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In particular, the price of rice doubled, squeezing many household budgets despite government handouts.
Voter Hisayo Kojima, one of the older adults in Japan’s decline and aging population, said on Sunday outside a polling station that her pension was “cut shorter, shorter”.
“We have paid a lot of support to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me,” the 65-year-old told AFP Tokyo.
What doesn’t help is that there is no trade agreement with the United States, there is dissatisfaction with the U.S. Natural Party funding scandal, while the U.S. tariffs are 25%.
Japanese importers have imposed a 10% tariff, while the automotive industry, which accounts for 8% of jobs, is shifting from a 25% levy.
Weak export data last week showed that the U.S. restricted U.S. car delivery, which has raised concerns that Japan could plunge into a technological recession.
Although Ishiba held an early meeting with Trump in February and sent his trade envoys to Washington seven times, there was no agreement.
“Japan No. 1”
The last time the least developed countries and Komeito failed to win a majority in the House of Lords was in 2010, which had fallen below the 2007 threshold.
Subsequently, the government underwent a rare change in 2009, when Japan’s now extinct Democratic Party ruled for three years.
Nowadays, the opposition is dispersed and it is very likely that the parties involved can form an alternative government.
Populist opposition Sancito wants “stricter rules and restrictions” on immigration, opposes “globalism” and “radical” gender policies, and hopes to reconsider decarbonization and vaccines.
Last week, it was forced to deny any ties to Moscow, which supported populist parties elsewhere, after Russian state media interviewed a candidate.
“They said something I’ve been thinking about, but couldn’t speak for years,” a voter told AFP at a Sancito rally.
