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The writer is the Director of the Eastern Eastern east of Chatham House and North Africa Program
Three men – the Supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Ayatollah was Khamenei, president of the US Donald Trump and Israel Benjamin Netanyahu – standing at the center of the rising of Israel and Iran. Each one uses idectiological convictions, personal style and strategic instinct of shaping their leadership tails. Now, their egos and views of the world are the collision, with outcomes for wider half east. In war, it is not just policies that are important – personalities too. Indeed, ambitions of leaders often shine history more than armies or institutions.
Khamenei, now 86, spent more than three decades of the helm of Islamic Republic. While often discarded as a careful cleric rising by default after the death of Ayatollah Khomolah Khomeini, he showed a wonderful adaptation and a steady strategic perspective. His leadership was marked with deep doubt of the West and an immutable faith in the Islamic Republic mission as the Vanguard of Commecymism and Aggression of Western Imperialism and Israel to spend the Iranian people.
Under Khamenenei, the Islamic Republic has moved from a view of the theocracy viewing an ambitious actor in the Iraqi and Syria and Syria network of Lebanon and Yemen.
Khamenei’s personality – calculation and the ideological rigid – an asset and responsibility. It allows the regime to endure threats of Iran boundaries in 2001 and 2003 invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. His natural, honored by the years of safety in a poor region, to avoid thoroughly wandering and playing for time. While he supported negotiations before the 2015 nuclear agreement, he remained frequently suspecting US purposes – the most frightening regime change.
This confidence in understanding the small window of Iran after 2015 nuclear agreement. Instead of power rough as President Hassan Roubani, Khamenei continues to be an enemy posture. It includes the nuclear nuclear development, attacking the Saudi oil facilities and stimulates the militaries such as Hamas, Hizbollah and Houthis, all while increasing the cruel rebuke.
In recent months, Khamenei supported Trump administration negotiations in hope to save Iran’s economy from international penalties, corruption and mismanagement. He hopes to rehabilitate his absorption of legitimate by planning for successively. But Israel’s strikes marked a ruba.
Now, he faced the greatest challenge of his tenure: a war threatening his reinforced foundations. If it is further disrupted by the regime or if Khamenei is visible as chapter, you can mark the end of theocratic model of Iran.
Meanwhile Netanyahu, Israel’s most polarizing number of political numbers, explained that such chapter of the regime, if not changing the regime, a significant purpose. He built his career in Charisma, polarizing rhetoric, an incompetent development of outmanoeuvre opponents and a historical reading depicting Jews. This WorldView discusses his or her diplomacy and war response. His opposition to Iran nuclear deals in 2015, stand for a wider threat to Iranian security of Israel and final support of Israel’s personal combination.
By the end of the opposite October attacks in Hamas and the underlying war in Gaza, Netanyahu accused of allowing divisions of security threats. But his natural remains in the strength of the project, avoid compromise and prejudice to his enemies. Now she is widely seen as the person who takes the fight directly in Tehran.
Finally, there is a trump, whose presence clings to the big crisis. Invalid and transaction, it is his 2018 decision unilaterally wedgaw from Iran nuclear deal – after direct movement from a maximum pressure campaign forcing Tehran in a corner.
Trump’s foreign policy does not have consistency but not impact. Her relationship with Netanyahu helped the nourishment of 2020 given Abraham’s access, a vision for involvement in Israel in a new Middle East. Although his method also prevents credibility to us, abandoned allies concerned about America’s trustworthiness and American opponents such as Khamenei navigating. Instead of showing steady leadership, Trump left the world thinking about US military action in Iran. “I can do it. I can’t do it,” he said, promised a decision in the next two weeks, further maintaining anxiety.
This conflict is more than a military confrontation; It’s a blow to the aged leaders today want to get their olds. Khamenenei, Netanyyahu and Trump wiped the road of the war with decades wrongly wrong mistake and brinkmanship. Many will see if Netanyyahu believes that his heritage requires perfect victory, if Khamenei intends to increase or compromise, and if Trump has facilitated a regional counting.
Their instincts in the coming days not only determine the result of this war, but the future of the Islamic Perfublic, the US power and strength of a fractured Middle East.
The War of Israel-Iran: How long does it go? Involve a FT subscriber webinar With Sanam Vakil and Ft Experts on Wednesday June 25 at 1300-1400 BST (1200-1300 GMT) and put your questions in our panel
