Good morning. The “Vibe Shift” market we have written in the past small LYRICS Keep PAST. Treasury results fall short and at the upper end of the curve, with a real yield, instead of inflation expectations, most of the ones. Progress cutting cutting for this year continued to get up; A full 25-base cut point of rate is currently added in less than two weeks. Many tech stocks, especially Tesla, have a hard day. Many serfary consumer sentiments also appear, this time from conference conference, which also reports that inflation expectations. Is the bad news aim? Well, a blowout sales report from NVIDIA can do the trick, and when it happens, the AI Chip leader releases the results this afternoon. And if Nvidia’s numbers fail? Best not think about it. Email us: robert.arstrong@ft.com and Aiden.reiter@ft.com.
Is Vibe Shift true? Put your bets
Markets are a little scared of signs that grow slowly and inflation is not. Did we find a downward point of inflection – or the new data is just a blip? Numbers are always unpleasant in recent, but on the other hand, trumpet policies that are expected to drive a strong economy and support the market – many deregulas – have not occurred.
At one point as this, making predictions is useful. It insists on thinking discipline. So let’s try a forecast for the end of this year, for two important variables: inflation and unemployment. Are they higher or lower than they are today? That is: Will the economy be warm, as the new data it suggests, bring to work? Do Tarko and Reserve Immigration Reconciliation? Long-term non-insulted readers remember we want to think in terms of matrices. Here is:
We would like to hear from readers about what you think about the possibilities of squares of auction (as before: robert.arstrong@ft.com). Remember that they should be matured with 100!
For the record, Rob thinks that inflation is more likely than not (60 percent / 40 percent) maintained at the current level. It provides the following possibilities: 24 percent A, 36 percent B, 16 percent C and 24 percent is another great risk, but the worst world – is the worst world is a real possibility.
Flat
Bulohadula popular Teaching a soft US housing market as a factor contributing negative vibe transfer, and a threat to future growth. Fair Enough: Existing Home Sales Fell 30 Per Cent From December to January, New Housing Construction (“Starts”) Fell 10 Per Cent, New Construction Permits Granted Were Flat and Completions Of New Houses – That Is, Additions To Inventory – Ticked Up:
While none of these are coming in the news, the housing market situation is not worse today than Oct.If we write it. The long credit rate continues to be difficult in need. Inventories are very high. And prices are not sufficient to fall to carry with buyers:
The changed is the sight. Although mortgage rates are now around where they are in October, they jumped between, further unable to prevent the market:
Although mortgage rates in a small recent, homeboilder stocks slowly fall in five months:
Have more than reduced stock than mortgage rates. Usually, homebooters see a pick-up of spring sales, but that doesn’t come. From Rick Palacios to John Burns Consulting:
Homebuilers are going to this time with many standing inventory. Hope is to accelerate sales while Sales kicked. . . But homebaiders riding on gas are small, because they know that spring is not as strong as (original) expected.
There are other fears for homebooters on the horizon. According to Troy Ludtka on SMBC Nikko Security America, “Many homeboiders are dependent on unsolicited work documents”; President Donald Trump’s immigration policies can complete new homes that are more expensive. And tariffs, especially in the tree from Canada, input costs, however additional control of the need or forcing homebooters to accept the small margins of the projects they have started .
But while the palacios were found to be unpleasant, it was the “flaming, not falling on the cliff.” Homebuilders have also taken, and many have extended their supply chain from the pandemic to reach some tariffs. And a larger pullback is not dangerous for the US economy. Yes, the residency is a reason for improvement for economic growth, and slowly familiar investments in GDP progress in recent quarters. But while the news from the housing market is not good, it looks largely sold.
(RAITER)
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