Is the coup real or a ‘sham’?

Military takeovers are nothing new in Guinea-Bissau. The West African country has experienced at least nine attempted and successful coups since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974.

But when military officials announced they had taken control of the country on Wednesday, some analysts and political figures had no doubts.

All the typical ingredients for a coup were there: Gunshots were heard near the President’s Palace, the President – Umomo Sissococo Embaló – was arrested and given an address on state television.

However, other circumstances of the incident are called into question, with Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Goodluck Jonathan in the voices that believe that the capture of Embaló.

And to complicate matters further, the military insisted to the BBC that the country had acquired it, but condemned the use of the word “coup”.

Junta leaders said they were acting to prevent a plot by unknown politicians with “the support of a well-known drug Baron” who was released from a drug hub.

Just three days before the military takeover, Bissau-Guineans voted in a presidential election. Embaló, 53, is running for a second term and his closest challenger is Fernando Dias Da Costa.

Dias backed by former Prime Minister Domingos Pereira, who first ran for President for the main opposition party, PaigC. However, Pereira was disqualified from the competition after authorities said he had submitted his paperwork.

The election results should be released on Thursday, after the time when the kudu took place.

After the arms in the capital, bissau, Embaló told the French News Site Jeune AFRIQUE that he was arrested by the same men at the Palacy Palace.

Military officials then appeared on state television, announcing that they had fired the President to prevent a plot to destabilize the country. The military suspended the election process and blocked the release of poll results.

In a short phone call, Embaló told France 24: “I was killed.”

Others were also detained, including Pereira, interior minister botché Candé and army chief gen sa na biue na Natan.

The headquarters of the Electoral Commission attacked and an official has since revealed that the armed men wearing the papers and the main computer server that stores the results – means that the computer results that are not published.

The opposition, civil society organizations and politicians from West African societies were outraged by the military’s announcement.

Emblaló flew to neighboring Senegal on a Senegalese military flight after being released from custody on Thursday – a detail that Puigc Official Flávio Baticà Ferreira found dubious.

“The way he left Guinea-Bissau, escorted like a tourist with his family and luggage, without a coup, is how we have a kudu, who used to be a member of Parliament, told the BBC.

In the series of coups that have taken place in Africa over the past five years, no ousted leaders have been allowed to leave the country as quickly as Embaló did.

However, a couple of analysts told the BBC that the Guinea-Bissuu military may have felt that allowing the embaló to fly as quickly as possible would make for a smooth transition.

Goodluck Jonathan, the former president of Nigeria, also questioned the coup, saying that a head of state is not usually allowed to talk to foreign media on the phone during a military traover during a military traover.

“What happened in Guinea-Bissau is not a coup … because I want a better word, I will say it is a ceremonial coup,” part of a team observing the elections in Guinea-Bissau, told reporters.

Jonathan is right, deposed leaders are not usually known to meet the outside world while under arrest. But there are exceptions – The former president of Gabon is a video urging his “friends around the world” for support after stepping down in 2023.

The appointment of Gen Horta N’tam as the new military leader in Guinea-Bissuu also raises suspicions, because the general is considered an ally of embaló’s.

Embaló has not responded to allegations that he ordered the cloak.

Critics have long accused Emlaló of coup attempts to crack the rejection – charged the former leader.

He said he survived three attempted takeovers in total. In December 2023, after one such coup plotEmbaló suspended the opposition parliament. Since then, Guinea-Bissau has had no legislature.

Some civil society organizations accused Emlaló of ordering last week to prevent any bad election results from being published.

Political analyst Ryan Cummings talks about the President’s past actions – such as postponing the election by a year – provoked such suspicions. However, it is also “very reasonable” that the armed forces acted independently to prevent a political stalemate, because the embaló and dias claim that they won this election, Mr Cummings told the BBC.

Beverly Ochieng, West Africa Analyst of control risks at the intelligence company, also acknowledged the skepticism surrounding the coup.

However, he said that internal political tensions, combined with the decision to ban Pereira from the presidential race, “probably contributed to a military intervention”.

Gen Natam, who was then the army chief of staff, was sworn in as President and due to continue in power for a transitional period of one year.

The General appointed a new cabinet, consisting of 23 ministers and five secretaries of State.

Embaló, on the other hand, left Senegal for Congo-Brazzaville. According to sources in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, he left as he was angry that the Prime Minister of Senegal called the youth a “Sham”.

Dias, who said he was successfully arrested on the day of the coup, was granted asylum by Nigeria.

On Saturday, hundreds of protesters took to the streets, demanding Pereira’s release. They also called on the authorities to publish the election results.

In addition, three civil society groups have called for a general strike and a Civil Disobedience campaign to restore “elections”.

But reactions have been mixed, with some residents praising the army and hoping for a smooth transition.

“I am not against the military regime as long as they improve the living conditions in the country,” Suncar Gassama told the BBC.

Ex-MP Ferreira described the atmosphere in the country as “tense”.

“No one knows what the future holds for Guinea-Bissuu,” he said.

Additional Reporting by Ines Silva