Unlock White House Watch Newsletter for free
Your guide to what Trumpet’s Second Terms mean for Washington, Business and World
Going to war is always a gamble. Iran, Israel and now everyone is around the dice.
In a short term, it is as the gambling of Israel succeeded. The Government of Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to kill most of the leadership of the military in Iran and to inflict serious nuclear damage to the country and military infrastructure. Israel is also successful in the clear intention of drawing the US in the fight.
Donald Trump’s decision to participate in conflict is, in part, a reaction to the first successes in Israel. The US president often wants to look like a winner and, after US bombing attacks in Iran, claims a “odd military success”.
On the contrary, the government’s government of Iran can lead an “Axis of Resistance” in Israel – while avoiding open confrontation – failed to be unpleasant. For decades, Iran is strongly advanced to the interests of the entire region, by sponsoring proxies such as Hizbollah, Hamas and Houthis, while working on one’s own nuclear program.
For many years, Iranian strategy looks unpleasant and effective. In the gulf states that are often complained to be four capitals in Arab – Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and Sana’a (in Yeman) – Controls Pro-Iran forces. Iran is even more closely at having the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon.
But this long-term strategy is currently in Tatters. The Assad regime falls in Syria and Hizbollah and Himas severely damaged by Israel. Now the Iranian regime itself is under direct attack.
The medium and long results of this battle, however, are more obvious. Israel struggles to change short tactical successes – no matter how awesome – for long security. Long and bitter US experience is looking at early military victories turned into healing, endless wars. Theocracy of Iran below has become an attack. But bombing campaigns rarely lead to regime change. So the regime can continue and live to fight another day.
The Supreme Supreme Supreme Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and what was left in his military today facing a menu of deep options unaffected. Of emotion, they want to hit. But Trump promised that revenge of Iranian would lead to a more powerful attack in the US.
For self-reliance interests, Tehran leadership may choose for minimal revenge and then reach the diplomatic option. But Iranians are also afraid, as the American Neoconservys want to say, “weakness is annoying”. A failure to respond can invite further attacks to Israel, as well as the enemies of Iran.
Tehran also knows that Trump makes the decision bomb against the backdrop of deeper errors from his own supporters – fearing that the US enters another “War”. If Iran hits American targets in the Middle East – or pressure the oil price by closing the restricted hormuz – then the misdemeanor of America will improve. Trump’s first reaction is to take revenge. But he can easily get back to himself a sudden, especially when under political political home.
The US also knows that pulls the east entanglement paths in front of heavy loss. Bombin in 1983 at US Marine Barracks on Beirut, is widely blamed by Hizbollah, the cost of 241 Americans – and carries a US decision to retreat from Lebanon, instead of wasting.
Memories like underline the risks trump. The only consequence of allowing the US to conose “mission terminated” if Iran government, without a desire for more conflict in the US or Israel.
The consequences as if unlikely. The more likely alternatives is a badly injured but still hates Iran – which can strike in unexpected ways. The second possibility is the collapse of the current regime, followed by civil conflict – which can lead to outsiders or allow terrorists to build safe havens. Either of the consequences of hazarding the US to another Middle Eastern Battle, including commitment to the troops of the land.
The uncertainty of the options of Iran and the remaining power of America underlets the weak nature of today’s success. The Government of Netanyyahu is currently at war with many fruits – in Gaza and Iran and, to a small extent, in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and the West Bank. There is no obvious perspective at the end of any conflicts.
Israel has long been working on establishing itself as the most powerful Middle East. It has (uncoled) nuclear weapons and the support of the US. However, in the long run, it is not known for a 10mn people who reign in a region with a population of several hundred million.
Israel also takes great risks with US relations. Its brutal war in Gaza is severely damaged by the reputation of the Democrats. If the Netanyyahu government is now blamed to bring US to another infinite war, the American backlash against Israel can be bipartisan and lasting.
In their various ways, Iran, Israel and the US all gambled in the war. The risk is that they all end up as lost.
