Sunderland will be able to buck an unwanted trend this weekend if they can beat Newcastle in their first Tyne-Wear Premier League derby in nine years.
Amid excitement over the return of the top-flight clash between the old foes, victory for the Black Cats would guarantee them a better points tally than any of the three promoted teams amassed last season – in less than half the time.
Regis Le Bris’s side are already the most successful newly promoted team since Phil Brown’s Hull in 2008. In an era of growing fear of the growing gap between the Premier League and the Championship, how have they bucked the trend, just three years after playing League One football?
“We’re not going to play like (Pep) Guardiola or (Roberto) De Zerbi, because we’re Sunderland and I’m Regis Le Bris,” was an early quote from the head coach they appointed barely 18 months ago, who would have endeared the Frenchman to the North East from the start. It turned out to be much more than just a soundtrack.
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Even in the Championship, he prioritized pragmatism and simplicity, as Sunderland scored just seven goals more than relegated Plymouth last season on their way to the play-offs, with a composed style and starting line-up prioritised.
Sunderland’s preparations and performances since the final whistle at Wembley have seen them reach new heights, with the club looking back at previous failures by others and vowing to avoid the same mistakes.
Recently promoted teams have struggled with the physicality and intensity of the Premier League. A look at the basic numbers, especially the kG tables, suggests that Sunderland should be among them.
But dig a little deeper and there are clear indicators to establish exactly why Sunderland are 10 points clear of the relegation zone and one ahead of their biggest rivals heading into Sunday’s derby, live Ski Sports.
The Black Cats have produced the lowest expected total of goals in open play of any team in the Premier League – worse than even Wolves, who have scored eight goals all season. If that metric were reflected in the results, Sunderland still wouldn’t have won a single game.
But what kG tables are less able to interpret is efficiency, a team making the most of its strengths. This is something that Sunderland have identified and addressed.
As a promoted side, this means it is mostly done without the ball, and instead favors strength and energy. And who ran the furthest in the Premier League this season? Their 33-year summer deal with Granit Xhaka. Noah Sadiki, another arrival from Belgian champions Union SG, is third on the list.
Sunderland have been particularly bold in their foray into the transfer market, spending more than any newly promoted side in Premier League history in a single transfer window on 13 senior arrivals.
Such a recruiting strategy comes with the obvious risk that forging chemistry and mix could prove difficult, and there’s also no guarantee that new arrivals will hit the ground running individually. But there is a particularly high strike rate, with nine of those signings in 10 or more league games.
“The club knew exactly what they were buying, who they were buying, who fit into this team,” Xhaka said. Ski Sports ahead of Sunday’s game. “You need it to be like a puzzle from the first player to the last, and also the staff.”
One piece of the puzzle fit to play every minute of every game this season has been goalkeeper Robin Roefs. Retired from Eredivisie minnows NEC Breda, he has adapted immediately to English football with the second best save percentage in the league, and has the fifth best performance from kG.
More broadly, the entire backbone of the team has improved. Le Brees and then head of recruiting Stuart Harvey sought to recruit tough, physical defensive tackles who were good on the ball.
Enter two 6-foot-2 center backs in Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete. It’s little surprise that the Black Cats won the fifth most aerial duels across the league. Then add to Deadline Day the arrival of Lutsharel Geertruida, who finished with the fifth-highest pass percentage under pressure of any defender in the division.
Elsewhere there have been significant improvements, which were potentially also well predicted. Sunderland have historically struggled with set pieces, but that physical advantage has made a significant difference going forward. Eight goals this season puts them level with Aston Villa, Brentford and Brighton, and no team in the league has created a higher proportion of expected goals from set-pieces.
Sunderland’s Omar Alderete scored his winner at Notm Forest earlier this season
The numbers still don’t feel sustainable, but given the smart way Sunderland have prioritized aspects of their game over others, the reality is certainly not as bleak as the headlines suggest they should be bottom of the Premier League.
What may prove more problematic is the upcoming month-long AFCON, which will hit them harder than any of their rivals. Seven players, including the influential Sadiki and left-back Reinild, are set to join their countries after the derby and could miss six league games.
Just to rub salt in the wound, Sunderland face the third toughest fixtures during their absence.
But that’s next week’s problem. For now, it’s a derby to win. And if they do, you can bet it will be done effectively.
Watch Sunderland v Newcastle from 1pm on Sunday Ski Sports main eventstart at 2 p.m.