When Tehran thinks how it will respond to the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, everyone’s eyes are focused on the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Iran’s military capabilities have been reduced a week and a half ago, the Islamic Republic has retained huge leverage elsewhere.
The biggest goal is the Hormuz Strait, which is a key choice in global energy trade that may be blocked by Iran. Iranian lawmakers approved its closure after the U.S. attack, but security officials have not signed it, and waterways remain open on Monday, helping to lower oil prices. Despite this, some tankers Stay away from the strait Anyway.
according to US Energy Information Management (EIA), the average daily oil flowing through the Straits, or about 20% of global oil liquid consumption and about a quarter of global offshore oil trade.
In addition to oil, one-fifth of global LNG trade experienced the Strait of Hormuz last year, mainly from Qatar, the EIA said.
Given its importance to energy trade, the closure of the Strait will lead to huge market turmoil. In a note earlier this month, FX Research is in charge German Bankthe worst case scenario is the total damage to Iran’s oil supply and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could put oil prices above $120 a barrel. This will increase by 56% from Brent crude’s current price.
Any closure may require the use of mines, patrol boats, aircraft, cruise missiles and diesel submarines. Although the U.S. Navy has deployed a series of huge ships to the region, clearing the strait can take weeks or months.
Onathan Walter and Anibal Maiz Caceres – AFP via Getty Images
However, there are some alternative routes that can help mitigate the impact of any closure.
For example, state-owned energy giants Saudi Arabia Operate a crude oil pipeline that extends eastward from the Abqaiq oil processing center near the Persian Gulf to the red Yanbu port oceanaccording to EIA.
The United Arab Emirates operated another pipeline that by connecting the onshore oil fields to the Fuji Export Terminal in the Gulf of Oman, which bypassed the Hormuz Strait.
The EIA estimates that Saudi and UAE pipelines can be used to transfer 2.6 million barrels from the Hormuz Strait.
By comparison, Saudi Arabia exported 5.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate a day through the Strait last year.
Iran also has a pipeline and export terminal in the Gulf of Oman that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The capacity of the pipeline is about 300,000 barrels per day, but its practical purpose is much lower than that. In the summer of 2024, Iran exported less than 70,000 barrels per day through the alternative route and stopped loading of goods after September 2024, according to the EIA.
By comparison, last year, an average of about 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil exports per day, which went through the Hormuz Strait.
Many analysts believe Iran’s closure of the Straits is impossible, because doing so will destroy its own economy and trigger a potentially disastrous response from the United States
exist Column IN diplomatic Magazine Earlier this month, Kenneth Pollack, a former Persian Gulf military analyst at the National Security Council and former Persian Gulf Affairs Director Kenneth Pollack said the possibility of Iran was low and would close the strait.
He predicted that this is because Iran quickly shifted from “sympathetic victims to dangerous enemies” in the eyes of most other countries, and Western countries and even China would use force to reopen the strait.
“Tehran will have to worry that the reckless threat to the world economy will convince Washington to remove the Iranian regime,” Pollack added. “When U.S. President Donald Trump will certainly be even more fearful – who ordered Iranian General Qassem Soleimani to die in January 2020 – to return to office.”
