High stakes but low expectations ahead of Ukraine’s talks with Russia and the US

Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine and the US are set to meet in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral talks since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Senior officials from all three countries are involved, but it is unclear if they will be in the same room together at any time. And while the talks have taken on a new format, the core differences remain the same.

The stakes are high, but the expectations are limited.

Donald Trump has pushed hard for a peace deal with Ukraine – one he promised but has yet to deliver – and he said this week that both sides would be “stupid” if they couldn’t agree.

But still some serious shuttle diplomacy through his own envoys, they hosted the first trilateral talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators with some major issues still unresolved.

Ukraine is involved in the process because it wants peace more than anyone else, but also because it needs to keep the US going. This lesson was learned the hard way last year, when Donald Trump suspended intelligence sharing and military assistance.

Today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his talks with Trump in Davos were “really positive” and he hopes for more air defense support against Russia’s relentless attacks as a result.

Often grim-faced after his encounters with the US leader, this time Zelensky seemed unusually cheerful.

But he remains cautious on the outcome of the talks with the United Arab Emirates.

He described the meetings, which could last two days, as “one step”, but avoided calling it positive.

“We have to wish it will push us a bit closer to peace,” he said.

For a while, Zelensky talked about being 90% of the way to a framework agreement for peace, but the last 10% is always the hardest – and Russia can still reject the whole thing.

“It’s all about the eastern part of our country. It’s all about the land. This is the issue that is not resolved yet,” he explained, explaining the biggest obstacle that he said still remains.

Russia insists that Ukraine must hand over a large part of the eastern Donbas region, which it did not win on the battlefield. Ukraine refused.

Politicians always talk about their red lines, but for this country the Donbas line was drawn with the blood of soldiers who died defending it.

Zelensky cannot cross it.

As I write this, music from another soldier’s funeral is drifting from the church down the street.

On my way back to Ukraine this time, we passed many military graves in roadside cemeteries, all marked with flags.

The other major issue for discussion in the UAE is what the US will do, militarily, if Russia invades Ukraine again in the future. That’s what Ukraine calls a “security guarantee”, and says it’s important.

Zelensky said that the agreement between the US and Ukraine has been completed, but we don’t have real details.

Russia’s response also remains an open question.

There is also the giant new doubt about how good a guarantee from Donald Trump: the president of the US fixation on “taking” Greenland severely damaged NATO.

He also undermined the very principle of protecting a country’s sovereignty, the entire basis of Western support for Ukraine.

So can Kyiv count on him to help in the next crisis? Currently, it doesn’t have many options.

As for trusting Vladimir Putin, no one here is under any illusions that his goals have changed.

“He really doesn’t want it,” Zelensky said in Davos about Putin and peace.

The Kremlin says that if it doesn’t get what it wants at the negotiating table, it will “achieve its goals on the battlefield” – though it has failed so far, despite the sacrifice of many soldiers.

So once again, it’s targeting civilian infrastructure across the country — but in a more deliberate, sustained, and destructive way than before.

In the depths of a bitter winter, that left people frozen in their homes.

Today, the mayor of Kyiv again called on the residents of the city to leave if they have to go.

“The enemy is likely to continue attacking the critical infrastructure of the city and country,” Vitali Klitschko warned.

After repeated attacks, the system is very vulnerable.

“I spoke to the residents and said honestly: the situation is very difficult and this is not the most difficult moment.”