Arab Gulf states are watching nervously as neighboring Iran engages in nationwide protests. United States President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Tehran – a move many Gulf powers fear will plunge the region into chaos.
Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia has been lobbying the US administration to refrain from attacking Iran, while Qatar and Oman have focused on diplomatic contacts between Iran and US officials. The three countries shifted into high-gear diplomacy to ease tensions after Washington and Tehran reported a breakdown in communications on Wednesday, sparking fears of an attack, observers said.
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“They were all concerned because all the traditional channels (between the US and Iran) are not being used, at least on the US side,” said Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst and non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
“The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) officials did not know what the US intended,” said Muhanad Seloum, an assistant professor of critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
Regional spillover
Tensions escalated after Trump repeatedly threatened military action over the bloodshed in Iran. Officials in Iran say more than 100 security forces have been killed in clashes with protesters, while opposition activists say actual toll More than 1,000 demonstrators have been involved since the protests began in late December. Al Jazeera could not independently verify these figures.
Trump called on the Iranians to seize state institutions, assuring that “aid is on the way”. Although it was not clear what type of attack he was considering, his comments raised the possibility of an escalation in the region.
Arab Gulf states fear that a military attack on Iran could destabilize oil prices, damage their reputation as safe havens for business and provoke Iranian retaliation on their soil.
It won’t be the first time. In 2019, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi Arabian oil facilities, temporarily reducing Saudi oil production. Last June, Tehran attacked Qatar’s Al Udeid Airbase, which hosts US forces, after the US attacked a key nuclear facility in Iran.
Iran gave ample warning that it would launch an attack, which ended the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, though it set a precedent. And while that conflict has weakened Iran’s military capabilities, the Islamic Republic still has the arsenal to hurt American interests in the region.
“Iran has ballistic missiles, supersonic missiles and militia groups, so if given a reason to strike, they will,” Seloum said.
On Wednesday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had warned regional countries from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Turkey that US bases in those nations would be attacked if the US targeted Iran. Later some personnel were withdrawn from Al Udeed Airbase.
Speaking to reporters at the White House later Wednesday, Trump said he had received information that “the killings in Iran are stopping, stopping … and there are no plans for executions.” While some interpreted this as an off-ramp for de-escalation, the US president did not rule out military action.
unintended consequences
Each member of the Gulf Cooperation Council has a different history with Iran but all fear what will happen next and who will fill the void if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is replaced or the entire system suddenly collapses, experts say.
The collapse of Iraq after the 2003 US-led invasion and the chaos that followed – including a deadly civil war, the strengthening of Al-Qaeda and the rise of ISIL (ISIS) – is an experience that the Arab Gulf countries do not want to see repeated in a country of more than 90 million people, with weak and weak weapons. A network of partners in the region.
“They might like to see the Iranian leadership weakened, but they are all more concerned about the situation of chaos and uncertainty and the possibility of more radical elements coming to power there,” Khalaf said.
Qatar, Kuwait and Oman have found a way to be their neighbors on the northern shores of the Gulf – Doha is home to the world’s largest natural gas reserves, even with Tehran.
UAE’s Dubai is an important port for trade with Iran and the two countries have a strong economic partnership. The UAE would therefore be hit hard by unrest in Iran or an attack on its soil. Still, Emirati officials have remained silent over the past week and distanced themselves from other GCC countries by aligning with Israel and taking different positions in Sudan and Yemen.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been arch-enemies, but in recent years this rivalry has transformed into a pragmatic relationship based on keeping channels of communication open and preventing each other from escalating.
Riyadh is particularly wary of regional instability as the kingdom embarks on a series of ambitious economic reforms to diversify its reliance on oil and boost the tourism sector — goals that require stability at home and in the wider region.
“Saudi (Arabia) is not at all comfortable with regime change anywhere – it is radical and extreme and the consequences are uncertain and dangerous,” Khalaf added.
“Our goal is to achieve stability and peace so that we can direct our resources towards a better future for our people,” Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir said on Thursday.
Still, Saudi political analyst Khaled Batrafi said Riyadh would welcome changes in Iran, especially if they were gradual, bringing in a leadership willing to curtail its nuclear and missile programs and less hostile to the US.
“But a sudden change like a power change with the risk of disintegration of the country will not be good for anyone,” Batarfi said. “The whole region is on fire and we don’t need to add more fire to our doorstep.”