“NATO broke into the annual summit meeting of the NATO military alliance,” President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday morning. “You will have to pay.”
NATO members agree On Sunday, by 2035, their defense spending rose to 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP), a significant increase from the promise Trump has been at 2% since 2014. Previously requested Allies doubled their spending targets to reach 4% of GDP in 2018. Experts tell wealth While some countries will undertake a joint commitment to pay billions of dollars in defense spending over the next decade, efforts to pay billions of dollars will be paid by some countries, it may not be feasible for others.
The agreement details the guarantee of 3.5% of GDP and will defend to the “core” where 1.5% of GDP is remitted to security-related investments, including “infrastructure and resilience.” website. To place the percentage on perspective, NATO estimate The UK spent 2.33% of its GDP in 2024, or $82.1 billion.
Experts say Sunday’s deal could be more of a political drama than a promise, as European countries aim to appease Trump and strengthen the coalition amid geopolitical turmoil.
“Europeans are just crazy for Europeans,” Liana Fix, the European Council on Foreign Relations, told him. wealth. Although Fix said 3.5% of GDP is a realistic estimate of the demand for many member states.
“Most European countries haven’t spent 5% (GDP) in the Cold War,” Fix said. “It’s obviously a difficult thing to communicate with European constituencies, and if Donald Trump realizes that 1.5% is actually not the kind of real defense spending he demands for Europeans, that would still lead to controversial discussions with Donald Trump.”
FIX hopes leaders can give a detailed overview of 1.5% of GDP and define “dividing 3.5% to 1.5%” during the NATO summit she attended.
Experts say the agreement may not be maintained by all member states.
“(The agreement) is not suitable for all kinds of things,” said Jan Techau, director of Europe at Eurasia. wealth. “It must be, in theory, because that’s the idea of the whole thing: the equal commitment of everyone. But in reality, that’s not the case.”
Fix said the 5% target was entirely to appease Trump, who released screenshot NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte went to the truth social verified private information on Tuesday. “You will not be able to accomplish the achievements of the U.S. president in decades,” said Rut’s message confirmed by the NATO press office. “Europe will pay as much as possible and it will be your victory.”
“Frankly speaking (NATO agreement) is a classical compromise, apparently produced by Secretary General Mark Rutte,” said Jacob Funk, senior fellow at Bruegel. wealth. “He is obviously a long-time head of state in Europe and he knows a lot about how to play this game.”
FIX said NATO leaders hope Trump will remain in a good mood throughout his visit.
“The idea of this summit is actually to give Donald Trump a victory circle and tell him, ‘You brought us to this point. We are doing that.’ To avoid any controversial issues on the agenda.”
On his way to the summit, Trump questioned the core principles of the NATO coalition and refused to promise Article 5 – consent to collective defense among member states. When a reporter asked him if he was committed to the clause, Trump answer: “Depending on your definition. Article 5 has a lot of definitions. You know, right?”
Article 5 provides that if a NATO allies are attacked, each other member state will “see this violence as an armed attack on all members” and will take action to assist the country website.
While the unified front welcomes Trump to The Hague, it can prioritize maintaining the NATO alliance, 23 of the 32 member states Already arrived 2% of GDP spending threshold – experts believe some people will reach 5% by or before 2035.
U.S. defense funding was 2.7% in 2024, nearly low. US Department of Defense. NATO data Recorded in 2024, the U.S. spending on defense was slightly less than 3.5%.
“The ripple effect on the U.S. economy may be negative, because as Europe builds its own military industrial capacity, U.S. exports of traditional weapons to Europe will drop significantly,” Kirkgard said of the NATO Agreement.
Countries that begin to achieve new goals
German cabinet Officially recognized The draft budget for 2025 and the budget framework for 2026 details 3.5% of planned core defense spending by 2029, the six years after the NATO 5% target.
“(Germany) hopes (S) to be a poster child of how Europe can improve its capabilities,” Techau of Eurasia told wealth.
CFR’s FIX said the country is in a “very good position” to implement the plan because it has low debt, can increase defense spending and take on more debt through loans.
According to Poland’s defense spending was 4.2% in 2024 and is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2025. NATO.
Techau said countries closer to Russia, like Poland, Baltic countries, like some Scandinavian countries, are more committed to achieving target spending targets. Kirkegaard said the trend is no surprise, “because of the acute military threat Russia poses to Europe.”
The country is unlikely to achieve its goal
Spain postponed the deal. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Madrid does not have to hit the 5% target Report On Sunday.
“They have problems in Spain,” Trump explain Tuesday. “Spain is always a problem. Spain doesn’t agree, and it’s unfair to the rest of them.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer explain The country must “actively prepare” for the war and commit to the expenditure target. Kilkgard said that despite the goal of “financially challenged” the country to achieve this.
“The fiscal challenge is likely to be the most serious in the UK, France and Italy in Spain,” Kilkgard said.
Even so, European countries still hope to find potential solutions US troops withdraw money From the area.
Kirkegaard said he was “absolutely subscribed to European intelligence” estimates that if the Ukrainian-Russian war ends tomorrow, Russia will begin preparing for a broader war with “one or more NATO members.”
“For Europe, without Ukraine or the United States, it would be a very unpleasant situation to defend Russia today,” he said.
