The President has Open and ambiguous Regarding whether he would take military action, but in the familiar Oval Office model, he has surprised the global media by confirming that fighter jets have Hit three individual targets.
In response, Iran warned of “eternal” consequences.
Although Trump has previously said he would not hurt Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite knowing where he is, the president now suggests that the Iranian regime should be overthrown.
he Write on his websiteTruth Social: “Using the term “government change” is not politically correct, but if the current Iranian regime cannot make Iran great again, why is there no regime change?
Trump’s suggestion from his cabinet almost Start to the opposite. Defense Secretary Pete Hesgeth told reporters that the mission “is not, nor is it about the change of the regime” and the vice president JD Vance denies that the US is fighting Iran. “We are at war with Iran’s nuclear program,” he clarified.
question Voters and analysts inevitably turn to Iran’s “eternal” response may be.
As Western countries weigh the possibility of Tehran’s actions to undermine its economy, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also announced that he would travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Aragic said in Istanbul that Iran has established a “strategic partnership” with Russia, adding: “We always consult and coordinate our position.”
The Iranian parliament, near its home, also approved plans to close the Hormuz Strait, which transports one-fifth of the global daily oil production.
It was the most direct concern for analysts, as the market opened in Asia on Monday morning, watching oil prices jump to five-month highs and then collapsed, with Brent crude priced at about $79 a barrel.
But analysts also pointed out that countries that may have attracted short-lived straw in the conflict and consumers may be those who are not directly involved in the action this weekend.
As Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank noted, the United States has become a net energy exporter over the past few years, “So, because the Fed has another reason to delay slowdowns, any negative impact will achieve higher speeds by worsening financial conditions or higher interest rates.”
Reid continued: “For Europe, the impact could be even more severe. The increase in oil by $10 per kilogram per barrel is likely to increase HICP by a quarter (the coordinated index of consumer prices used by the EU) if it lasts 0.4pp within a year.
“If this increase continues, the growth can be reduced at around 0.25pp.”
Beware of deck general
As geopoliticians draw the path in the coming days, economists warn investors of reaction to any knee.
As Paul Donovan of UBS said wealth This morning: “We live in a world of political polarization and sound economics. This encourages sensation. The deck general will give extreme views on the U.S. attack on Iran. Both supporters and opponents may dramatize the incident. Investors should be cautious about knee-Jere-Jerk’s overreaction.”
He continued: “President Trump’s immediate recent attack before the attack may be tactical, but it has raised uncertainty that they suggest that the regime change its opposition to official U.S. policy. This raises questions of trust related to trade negotiations.
“Even modest oil price increases will raise U.S. gasoline prices, just as trade tariffs push up other prices, may also increase profit-led inflation.”
That being said, JPMorgan analysts say investors should hold on to long-term volatility.
In a comment wealth This morning, JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka wrote about Trump’s ambivalent statement about whether the weekend strike was the only action or the beginning of a series of attacks, with little certainty.
“In addition, we don’t see obvious avenues for political solutions to military conflicts, which makes us think that conflicts (such as those in Gaza) can be longer than many investors think,” he added. “In addition, Iran is much larger than Gaza, Syria or Lebanon, unlike the other three areas where Israel has been attacked in the last 18 months, it is located in the Strait of Holmont.
Matejka added: “In our opinion, global economy/global investors cannot ignore the risk of Iran conflict as Lebanon, Syria or Gaza, nor can they ignore the 10% increase in global energy prices.”
