Eli Lilly is finding success in the GLP-1 market with Novo Nordisk

It’s a tale of two drugmakers in the anti-obesity drug market.

Both of them New Nordisk and Eli Lilly is struggling Low prices in the USbut their predictions for 2026 differ dramatically: Although Novo preparing for a decline in salesLilly sees income increased again thanks to his blockbuster drugs.

The guidance split, despite similar headwinds, reflects the strength of Lilly’s position in the obesity and diabetes drug market. more effective injections and early initiation into direct-to-consumer sales, among other factors. While Novo Nordisk has effectively taken the drug mainstream, Lilly has held a clear lead in market share since then – and forecasts suggest it will extend its lead this year.

“The difference in sales pace and market share trends has been evident throughout 2025, but the dichotomy between the two companies’ prospects stood out during this 24-hour period, where Novo beat consensus and Lilly guided above consensus expectations,” Leerink Partners analyst David Reisinger told CNBC on Wednesday.

“It really cemented the investor’s view that Lilly is going to be a major player in obesity in the future,” he added.

This year, all eyes are on how Lilly will be The upcoming obesity pill, orforglipron, counter rates Novo’s oral drug Wegovy launched explosively in the US this year.

year Interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said on Wednesday that 20 million to 25 million patients are taking the two companies’ drugs. But he said the overall addressable market of patients in the obesity space is “huge.”

Lilly on Wednesday forecast 2026 sales of $80 billion to $83 billion, beating the $77.62 billion LSEG analysts were expecting.

The midpoint of this forecast implies a 25% increase in sales this year.

In contrast, Novo warned on Tuesday that sales and earnings will fall 5% to 13% this year as prices fall in the U.S. and exclusivity for obesity and diabetes drugs ends in China, Brazil and Canada.

Lilly similarly pointed to “low-to-mid-range (percentage) global price declines this year.” That comes later “most favored nation” deals Both companies spoke with the President Donald Trump in November in its latest effort to cut the cost of obesity and diabetes drugs and further lower direct-to-consumer prices for their treatments.

The deals with Trump are expected to reduce sales for both companies, but ultimately increase prescriptions for their drugs. However, Lilly is bullish about other factors helping to offset this pricing pressure.

This includes continued demand for anti-obesity drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro, and the launch of an anti-obesity pill GLP-1 in the second quarter pending US approval. Lilly also pointed to the fact that the government’s Medicare coverage of obesity treatment will begin at least as early as July, one of the winning features of drug price deals with Trump.

Lilly’s Ricks told CNBC that the coverage would open up access to 40 million new Medicare beneficiaries and “could significantly expand that volume.”

Overall, Reisinger called Lilly’s guidance “very encouraging” and said “volume exchange pricing is playing well” for the company.

He said tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro, was “superior” in efficacy and tolerability compared to semaglutide, an ingredient in Novo’s anti-obesity and anti-diabetes drugs. It happened proven in clinical trials 2024 conducted by Lilly and prescription trends indicate that the company’s drugs are preferred among prescribers.

“I think that’s what drives Lilly’s market share over Novo,” Reisinger said.

Another factor that differentiates Lilly and Novo is patent exclusivity. While Novo said patent expirations in some international markets were a challenge, Lilly Ricks said tirzepatide should be protected in major markets “into the back half of the 2030s.”

Reisinger noted that Lilly is still working to promote global adoption of tirzepatide, which won US approval for obesity in 2023.

Novo Nordisk launched its anti-obesity pill GLP-1 for the first time, and it reached 50,000 weekly prescriptions in less than three weeks after its launch. But investors are watching to see how that changes after Lilly’s pill is released to patients later this year.

In an interview with CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Novo CEO Mike Dustdar said he is confident in the company’s ability to compete with Lilly.

“We have the most effective weight loss pill, and I’m optimistic and bullish when they come out with their pill and we have to fight it,” Dustdar said.

He cites clinical trial data showing that Novo’s Wegovy tablet promotes weight loss comparable to its injectable counterpart, which is about 15%. In addition, based on data from a separate study, Lilly’s pill appears to be less effective.

Reisinger said the launch of the Novo pill was helped by the company’s use of the Wegovy brand name, which many patients recognize, and the fact that it immediately launched direct-to-consumer advertising for the product in early January.

But she said Lilly could use the convenience of the pill.

Orforglipron is a small molecule drug that is easily absorbed by the body and does not require dietary restrictions like the Novo Nordisk tablet, which is a peptide drug. Patients should drink no more than four ounces of water with Wegovy tablets and wait 30 minutes before eating or drinking anything else each day.

Novo insists the requirements won’t hinder adoption, but Risinger said it could help Lilly’s pill generate more sales worldwide.