The UBS Preview Club in Union Square, a place with red leather couches and mahogany wood furniture, is a great spot for a 9 a.m. coffee.
Since moving back to New York, I decided to cover private equity more (after all, New York is the private equity capital of…everywhere). That’s how I attended PitchBook’s 2026 Private Equity Outlook event earlier this week.
A few things are clear: First, the private equity market has been complicated over the past few years, and there will be a lot of “good news and bad news” going into this year.
The good news: Exits have increased, and 2025 will be the second-most year for exits, behind only 2021, according to PitchBook. This equates to more than 1,600 exits with an exit value of nearly $730 billion.
“While this is a very good rebound, you do need to see this momentum continue over the next year to make up for lost time from 2022 to 2024,” said Kyle Walters, a private equity research analyst at PitchBook. “Many sponsors are still on the sidelines, waiting for what they believe is a better exit environment, and now it looks like that is finally here.”
On the other hand, the amount of financing is declining. In fact, 2025 is the worst year for capital formation since 2020, Walters told the audience. “We call it the success of the few and the challenge of the many,” he said.
In short, despite the increase in exits, there are still too many private equity-backed companies that are maturing rapidly and need to find exits in order for their backers to raise their next round of funding. (Remember: Unlike venture capital, private equity is not a system that assumes failure—for a small company, one default could mean you can’t raise money again, period.)
As Ron Kahn, managing director of Lincoln International, noted, some sectors to watch include software and energy where “ARR has not materialized as expected.” He told the audience that strength and energy could lead to great victory or loss.
“People are making big bets on power and energy,” Kahn said. “I don’t know where it’s going to go, but it’s one way or the other. It’s probably binary.”
See you tomorrow,
Ellie Garfunkel
X: @agarfinks
e-mail: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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venture capital
– Laboratory ElevenArtificial Intelligence Lab, based in London, England, raised $500 million in Series D funding. redwood capital Lead this round and join a16z, Iconic, speed of light Start a business Partnersand others.
– bedrock roboticsis a San Francisco-based developer of autonomous technology for the construction industry that raised $270 million in Series B funding. Capital G and Atreides Artificial Intelligence Fund Value Lead this round and join ulcer, 8VC, eclipse, Appear capital, Perry creek capitaland others.
– third arc creatureis a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania-based antibody therapeutics company that raised $52 million in Series A funding. a16z and Omega funds led the round and were joined by others.
– adapt laboratorya San Francisco-based developer of artificial intelligence models designed to continuously learn and adapt, raised $50 million in seed funding. Appear capital Partners Lead this round and join Mozilla venture capital, Fifty Year, critical point venture capitaland others.
– NomagicThe Warsaw, Poland-based warehouse robotics company has raised $10 million in Series B funding. I think capital Partners Lead this round.
– Apelon laboratorya Cambridge, Massachusetts-based developer of autonomous observation networks designed to collect ocean data, has raised $9.5 million in Series A funding. S2G invest, RA capital manageand Dyne venture capital Lead this round.
– fiber AIis a San Francisco-based developer of an artificial intelligence platform that aims to adjust websites autonomously for users and has raised $7.5 million in seed funding. accelerator Lead this round and join willow venture capital, MVP venture capitaland others.
– expert intelligencea Santa Clara, Calif.-based developer of artificial intelligence systems designed to automate decision-making in laboratory settings, raised $4.7 million in seed funding. serra venture capital Lead this round and join TSVC and acorns Pacific Ocean venture capital.
– Linda AIa London, UK-based developer of artificial intelligence technology for dental practice agents, has raised £2.3 million ($3 million) in pre-seed funding. 6 Degrees Capital Lead this round.
private equity
– Quality laboratorya portfolio company monogram capital Partnersobtained mana producta beauty products manufacturer based in New York. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Excellent Health Holdingsa portfolio company Renovus Capital Partnersobtained Pulse House Health and Hospiceis a home health and hospice services provider located in Covington, Louisiana. Financial terms were not disclosed.
initial public offering
– Clear Street GroupThe New York City-based capital markets firm plans to raise up to $1.047 billion by offering 23.8 million shares on Nasdaq at a price range of $40 to $44. prism capital Support the company.
– Veradermics TherapyThe New Haven, Conn.-based hair loss treatment company plans to raise up to $256.7 million by offering 15.1 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange at a price of $17. longitude capital, SR One Capital Management, JW Childs Associates, Suweta Capital, Viking Globaland fortress Return to the company.
Fund + Fund of Funds
– bay hawk capitalis a Boston, Massachusetts-based private equity firm that raised $616 million for its first fund focused on technology and essential services businesses.
– Shore Capital Partnersis a Chicago, Illinois-based private equity firm that raised $400 million for its second fund focused on companies in the industrial sector.
– chat Start a business Partnersis a Chicago, IL-based venture capital fund that raised $50 million for its first fund focused on market companies.
people
– mulberry Francisco fair PartnersA San Francisco-based private equity firm promotes Andrew Polly to the principal and mark Belbert to the Vice President.