For critics confused by President Donald Trump’s Greenland strategy, there is an overlooked advantage to covering the president. Unlike most politicians, Trump has published a user’s manual on how he negotiates; classic the art of trading, Journalist Tony Schwartz wrote in 1987 (when Trump was running for office in 2016, he called This book “was undoubtedly the greatest regret of his life.”). The book details Trump’s experience negotiating his way to the top of New York’s vicious real estate market and the strategies he learned along the way. As president, especially in his second term, Trump has clearly trying to instill his attitude towards international relations and his transactional nature.
Trump created and solved the Greenland crisis in just one week. For one week in January, he followed the strategies laid out in the book almost word for word.
Trump’s signature negotiating strategy can be summarized in five key rules. They are:
- Rule 1: Aim high
- Rule 2: BATNA
- Rule 3: Use Leverage
- Rule 4: Let others find the middle ground
- Rule 5: Play with fantasy
Rule 1: Aim high
He first laid out the rationale for the threat. On Wednesday, January 14, Trump wrote Writing in Truth Society magazine, “The United States needs Greenland for national security purposes,” adding: “Anything less than that is unacceptable.”
“My trading style is very simple and straightforward,” Trump wrote in the book. “I aim very high and then I just keep pushing, pushing, pushing to get what I’m after.”
Over the next few days, markets began to fluctuate as European countries sent troops to reinforce Greenland. Trump addressed the issue after protesters across Europe chanted “Free Greenland” in mass demonstrations on Saturday. Announce Eight NATO allies will face 10% tariffs next month, rising to 25% in June until “an agreement to fully purchase Greenland is reached.” Timing is important. With markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and with Davos looming next week, investors and governments alike have had a long weekend to digest the threat and start to panic.
When markets reopen on Tuesday, Big sell off. Approximately $1.3 trillion in value wiped out Nasdaq The 2.4% drop was its worst day in months, shattering the stock market’s heightened resilience amid months of geopolitical jitters. Typically at this point, analysts conclude that Trump, a businessman who hates seeing red on the screen, will get cold feet and “back off,” leading to “Taco Trade.”
But the collapse itself may be part of that strategy.
Rule 2: BATNA
“Sometimes, it’s worth it to be a little crazy,” Trump wrote in the book. the art of trading, After telling how he once threatened a fraudulent banker with murder charges. For nearly a week, Trump has created leverage as analysts and policymakers seriously weighed the possibility that the United States could destroy the alliance by aggressively pursuing Greenland for the first time since its creation. Asked on Tuesday how far he was willing to go, he remained coy. Tell “You’ll find out,” the reporter said succinctly.
In business schools, they call it manipulating BATNA: the best alternative to a negotiated agreement. By making alternatives to a deal look costly and destabilizing, Trump artificially exaggerates downside risks, positioning the United States and himself as the least bad option.
By design, this is a scare tactic. French President Emmanuel Macron condemn Trump used tariffs as “leverage to violate territorial sovereignty,” adding pointedly: “We prefer respect, not bullies.”
Rule 3: Use Leverage
Trump writes in the book that the best way to trade is “to trade with strength, and influence is the greatest advantage you can have.” Leverage, he said, is “having something that someone else wants. Or better yet, having something that someone else needs. Or, most importantly, having something that someone else wants.” No European country can imagine life without the protection of NATO and the goodwill of the United States
On Wednesday, Trump and the markets reversed course. In a fitting speech on the eve of the World Economic Forum, Trump went out of his way to make clear that he would not use force to acquire Greenland, hammering news That way, investors craning their necks, bracing themselves for another volatile trading day, can hear it.
“Now everyone is saying, ‘Oh, great,'” Trump said. “This is probably the most important statement I’ve ever made because people think I’m going to use force. I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I’m not going to use force.”
Rule 4: Let others find the middle ground
Hours later, Trump met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, often referred to by diplomats as the “Trump whisperer.” Announce “Framework for a future agreement” on Arctic security. Markets soared, posting one of their best days in months.
This logic of letting the other side do the work of finding the middle ground is repeated in several chapters of this book. Trump stoked the fear of a worse outcome (a hostile takeover), while the other side (usually stuffy hotel managers) proposed buybacks, joint ventures, special access, and more. Trump accepted their offer and saw it as a total victory. trump card Tell this body fox Industry insiders say the United States will gain “full access” to Greenland “indefinitely.”
In fact, this deal probably won’t be too different from the status quo. The United States already enjoys extensive military privileges in Greenland According to a little-known 1951 defense agreement with Denmark. The treaty, which allows the United States to operate bases, garrison troops and build military facilities in Greenland on its own, has been used to create early warning systems associated with NATO (Greenland’s location makes it a key location for early missile detection, as the shortest route between Russia and North America passes through the Arctic).
Rule 5: “I cater to people’s fantasies”
But he wrote that the “final key” to Trump’s negotiating strategy was bluffing.
“I fulfill people’s fantasies,” he said.
U.S. rule of Greenland has long been a fantasy, especially amid proxy competition in a multipolar world as melting Arctic ice opens up new shipping lanes and fuels Russian and Chinese interest. Last year, a Chinese container ship first A record-breaking 20-day journey from the UK to China via the Arctic. Russia, meanwhile, maintains a network of military bases and Cold War-era equipment in the region.
With the stakes so high, Trump could still claim to have done something in Greenland even if the substance of the deal did little to change the underlying balance of power.
“That’s why a little exaggeration never hurts,” he wrote. “People want to believe that something is the biggest, the greatest, the most spectacular.”