It is widely believed that European football is damaging the form of the Premier League, but is this true or a myth? We’ll take a look in this week’s edition Between the lines.
The latest round of Premier League games has fueled the narrative that teams tend to struggle immediately after European games.
Chelsea and Arsenal played out a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on Sunday after Champions League wins over Barcelona and Bayern Munich in midweek.
Spurs, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest also showed signs of fatigue as they were beaten by teams who had weeks off in Fulham, Manchester United and Brighton.
Of the nine Premier League teams in Europe, only Liverpool and Newcastle won comfortably, with Manchester City needing a stoppage-time goal to see off Leeds and Aston Villa with a one-goal victory over bottom-of-the-table Wolves.
Mixed luck
But how have the Premier League’s European representatives fared overall after games in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League this season?
The chart below shows that their luck is mixed.
Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal have lower points per game averages after European nights compared to other games.
But other teams fared much better, with Manchester City, Spurs, Newcastle and Aston Villa recording higher points per game averages immediately after their European assignments.
Only Burnley are worse than Palace?
Having won just one of their six Premier League games after European games this season, Palace have averaged just 0.8 points per game compared to 2.1 points per game in their other games.
The negative difference of 61 per cent is the second highest of any Premier League side competing in Europe since the 2010/11 campaign.
Only Burnley in 2018/19 had a higher negative difference in points per game after European matches. The Clarets drew one and lost three of their four games after Europa League games that season as they failed to progress past the play-off round.
So why are sides like Burnley and Palace struggling?
The lack of squad depth is one of the problems when it comes to managing the extra workload that European qualifications present.
Oliver Glasner was open on the subject after Palace’s defeat by Manchester United on Sunday, bemoaning the club’s failure to adequately strengthen their squad following European qualification at the end of last season.
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Crystal Palace manager Oliver Glasner believes the club missed a chance to strengthen their squad for their European campaign
“We missed (the chance) to add depth to the team in the summer, and we knew the schedule, we knew Ismaila (Sar) was going to AFCON. Nothing happened, surprisingly,” he said.
“When you’re playing for the first time in your history, European football, let’s invest instead of save. We saved and that’s what we’re facing.
Without the rotation options that Glasner trusts, Palace have made fewer changes to their line-up than any other Premier League side this season, leading to fatigue among the first-team players and contributing to their latest defeat.
It’s worth noting that Forest, another side new to European competition in the Premier League era, have also struggled straight after their Europa League games this season.
Does Villa listen to previous lessons?
While Palace recorded one of the biggest negative points per game differences after European matches this season, Villa recorded the biggest positive difference in history.
Unai Emery’s side have won all five of their straight away Europa League games this season, a 167 per cent increase on their average points per game in their other fixtures.
Boubacar Kamara celebrates after Aston Willy took the lead against Wolves
Unlike Palace and Forest, Villa have had two years to adapt to the extra demands as they have played in the Champions League and Conference League for the last two seasons.
They struggled in their post-Champions League games last season, winning just four out of 11. But lessons have been learned and Emery has made better use of his squad to keep his players fresh at home too.
Newcastle also manage the load better. The 100 percent positive difference in points per game after Champions League games this season is the third highest since 2010/11.
Myth or reality?
While Palace, Forest, Villa and Newcastle offer extreme examples, there is little difference between results after European games compared to other games on average.
The average point difference per game after playing in Europe is negligible
Since 2010/11, Premier League teams have averaged 1.76 points after European games compared to 1.79 points in other games.
The widespread belief that Europe negatively affects the Premier League’s form is more myth than reality.
Read last week’s Between the Lines
Last week we explored Tottenham’s ‘extreme’ style at Tottenham and explained why the former Brentford boss struggles to do so.