China may be the only country that can compete with the US economic domination. However, its long-term prospects may be cut off in the knee due to fundamental defects: Not allowing people to keep their growth.
China’s potential output growth could drop from 4% in the 2020s to 2% in the 2050s, according to a new report from Oxford Economics.
This is due to the country’s Labor shrinks at an increase in speedwhose fertility rate is below the “alternative level”, and new workers are equal to the number of individuals leaving employment.
But not only is there a fundamental problem that there are not enough people to do leg work to keep the economy going, but the promise of lower consumption is impacted, so as leaders seek to support younger-age older people, serving them with fewer people, thus lower business investment, lower pace of innovation, and increased government debt.
Marco Santaniello and Benjamin Trevis of Oxford Economics wrote late last week: “As the population ages, young cohorts are often smaller than older people due to the decline in birth rates. “We expect this stress to be the sharpest in developing economies like China and Brazil, where the population is still relatively young but ages very quickly.” ”
Indeed, p World Population Reviewthe birth rate in China is 7.24 live births per 1,000 people in 2025.
As a result, according to Oxford Economics, China’s dependency ratio (the working-age population over 16 years old compared to those over 65 years old) will shift by 60 percentage points between 2010 and 2060.
In Thailand, this number is above 40 percentage points, while Brazil has about 35.
By comparison, the United States is slightly above 10, while the United Kingdom is about 15 years old, although economists point out that “the dependency ratios in advanced economies will be slower…because developed economies are already getting higher and therefore have a higher starting point.”
Developed economies also offer a further option: Together with the labor force around the world to power GDP.
“Immigration helps alleviate some stress by increasing the working age population. For example, we have shown that if in the U.S., immigrants grow from 1 million in 2023 to 1.5mn in 2033 and stabilize thereafter, it will provide a significant boost to economic potential in 2050,” Santaniello and Trevis introduced. ”
Retirement issues
In developed countries such as the United States, dialogues about the decline in birth rates and the decline in aging population have become mainstream.
For example, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is already weighing. Respond to posts about a drop in birth rates in the United States on his social media site x Musk wrote: “Earlier this yearLow birth rate will end civilization. ”
Similarly, figures like Blackrock’s Larry Fink have called on the government to start a national conversation about the public’s need to avoid retirement rather than relying on the state to support it.
he Tell CNN Earlier this year Fortune 500 company. We are providing enough support to our employees, where they get enough retirement.
“Other than that, we refuse to talk about how to expand the economy even more by Americans who are involved. That’s why we have to have a conversation in Washington, which must be seen as a national priority and a national promise to all Americans.”
To this end, the Oxford Economics report shows that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio may exceed 250% by 2060 as the government tries to keep up with payments to support its aging population.
“In the social safety net economy, the burden of the aging population is increasingly falling on the families through informal care responsibilities,” the economist wrote.
Meanwhile, in countries with more “generous” welfare systems: “Without reforms, such as raising retirement age or promoting labor force participation, the risks of many welfare systems are unsustainable. In our case, public debt has risen dramatically in most developed economies, in most developed economies, in several silent markets, more and more countries will work hard to reduce, thus minimizing economic changes. Space.”
