TANSHANG, CHINA – JANUARY 01: A nurse feeds a newborn baby at the Mother and Child Hospital on January 1, 2026 in Tangshan, Hebei Province, China. (Photo by Zhu Dayong/VCG via Getty Images)
Zhu Dayong | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s birth rate fell to a record low last year, signaling a deepening demographic crisis as Beijing grapples with a shrinking and aging population.
Births will drop to 5.6 per 1,000 in 2025, down from 6.4 in 2023, the lowest on record since the 1950s, according to data compiled by Wind Information.
About 7.9 million babies were born last year, a sharp drop from this figure 9.5 million a year agodata from the statistical bureau Despite Beijing’s efforts to encourage large families by expanding subsidies and extending parental leave, it showed on Monday.
Even as the country began to ease its strict one-child policy about a decade ago, the birth rate has continued to fall — except for a brief spike to 6.77 per 1,000 in 2024. This increase was associated with the Year of the Dragon, which is traditionally considered a good time to have children.
“The rate of decline is surprising, especially in the absence of a major depression,” said Yue Su, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
He said fertility incentives have waned, and young people are postponing marriage and childbearing plans due to growing economic pressures and increased competition for jobs.
Policymakers have introduced a variety of incentives, including cash bonuses and tax breaks for households with children under 3. Beijing also extended maternity leave to 158 days from 98 days in 2024.
China is facing a population crisis with a growing elderly population. The share of the population aged 60 and over increased from 22% in 2024 to 23% in 2025.
The population declined for the fourth straight year, falling by 3.4 million last year to 1.405 billion. Bureau of Statistics.
Economists have warned that a shrinking labor force and an aging population pose major economic risks. Fewer babies mean a shrinking labor force to support a rapidly growing group of retirees in the future, putting pressure on an already stretched pension system. It may also reduce the disposable income of young workers and force them to pay higher social security contributions.
“A shrinking population means a shrinking consumer base in the future, raising the risk of a broader supply-side imbalance,” Su noted, calling for stronger fertility policies.
World Bank data showed China’s fertility rate, defined as births per woman, fell to 1 in 2023, the most recent year available, below the global average of 2.2.
