Hours before United States Special Forces Kidnapping Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday, Maduro met with the special envoy of the Latin American country China and reaffirmed the “strategic relationship” of their nations.
Decades of ties are now in question as the fate of billions of dollars of Chinese investment in the country. At the same time, the US has given China a new opportunity to assert its hegemony in its own backyard, with a claim on self-ruled Taiwan, analysts say.
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According to the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, recently revived by US President Donald Trump, the Western Hemisphere falls within the sphere of influence of the US – and only the US.
Trump used this theory in his latest national security strategy, published late last year. Originally intended to distance Europe from the Western Hemisphere, Trump’s version emphasizes the need to counter China’s presence.
A “Trump corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine states that the US wants a Western Hemisphere that “remains free from hostile foreign intrusion or ownership of key assets and supports critical supply chains”, in oblique reference to China.
ABC News and CNN reported Tuesday that the Trump administration is demanding that Venezuela sever ties with China, Iran, Russia and Cuba before allowing it to resume oil production.
The White House declined to confirm or deny the reports, citing unnamed sources.
Trump has previously taken issue with Chinese investment in the region and claimed China’s control of the Panama Canal in his inaugural address last year.
Since Maduro was captured by U.S. forces last week, Trump has also revived claims that the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland should be “acquired” to protect U.S. national security.
They claimed it was an Arctic island this week “Full of Russian and Chinese ships,” has no evidence to support his claim.
“China is likely to read this as confirmation that the US is clearly comfortable in a hemispheric sphere of influence,” said Simona Grano, head of research on China-Taiwan relations at the University of Zurich’s Asian and Oriental Studies Institute.
China immediately condemned Maduro’s kidnapping by US special forces as a “clear violation of international law” and called on Washington to “stop overthrowing the Venezuelan government”.
But the return of these spheres “cuts both ways for Beijing,” Grano said.
“On the one hand, it underscores the vulnerability of China’s investments and partnerships in Latin America; on the other hand, it may reinforce Chinese perceptions that Washington will find it difficult to credibly counter such logic in East Asia, even if the Taiwan case is more sensitive and escalated,” she told Al Jazeera.
China has vowed to annex Taiwan peacefully or by force if necessary and considers Taipei’s Democratic Progressive Party, which heads the democratically elected government, to be separatist.
Diplomatically isolated Taiwan is recognized by only 11 countries and the Holy See, but has unofficial support from the US, which has pledged to help Taipei defend itself under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Promises of 1982.
While Beijing considers Taiwan an “internal” matter, Trump’s policy on “spheres of influence” could provide another way to discuss Taiwan globally, said Lev Nachman, a political scientist and assistant professor at National Taiwan University.
“I think the US has set a more global precedent for major powers to take action against other states outside of their jurisdiction,” Nachman told Al Jazeera.
While China is unlikely to take military action against Taiwan in the near future, “it will be easier now to justify military action if and when the day comes,” Nachman said.
Taiwan isn’t the only place Beijing might consider coming under its “sphere of influence.” China claims most of the South China Sea and has ongoing territorial disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taipei, while it also claims the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
Disputes on the eastern border between China and India have culminated in deadly clashes, including the 1962 border war and recent skirmishes since 2020.
On Chinese social media platforms such as WeChat, Douyin and Weibo, Venezuela has become a major topic of discussion in the past week, with some netizens drawing parallels with Taiwan.
“The US can illegally invade Venezuela and arrest its president, (the Chinese military) can legitimately and legitimately exercise national sovereignty over unification,” one Weibo user wrote in a post that received more than 1,000 comments.
The White House has described Maduro’s kidnapping as a law enforcement operation and airstrikes in waters around Venezuela as defensive moves to stem the flow of drugs into the United States. None of Venezuela’s neighbors intervened, although they condemned Trump’s actions.
While critics have dismissed the Trump administration’s framing of the abduction as a law-and-order move, that approach also appeared to prompt suggestions from some on Chinese social media about how Beijing might try to take over Taiwan.
“First, issue arrest warrants for pro-independence elements, then send people to find them,” said one Weibo user.
“During this process, there will inevitably be people who obstruct us, so we will use the military to clear the obstruction,” said another Weibo user. “This term is better: law enforcement action, which is more applicable to our inner territory of Taiwan.”
Experts agreed that Maduro’s abduction in Venezuela would not immediately change China’s plans for Taiwan, which Grano described as “clearly different from Latin America in terms of growth and alliance dynamics.”
A conflict with Taiwan could quickly escalate between the US and potentially its treaty ally Japan, whose Prime Minister Sane Takaichi has said any attack or blockade on Taiwan would be a “survival-threatening situation for Japan”, and supports the possible use of force. This could dramatically affect global shipping routes through the strategically important Taiwan Strait.
Beijing has also not ruled out peaceful means of controlling the democracy of 23 million people.
At the same time, “many (Chinese) netizens expressed shock at Maduro’s unilateral handling of the United States, with some commenting that the incident underscored the belief that only a strong country can avoid tyranny,” said Jiang Jiang, editor-in-chief of the China-focused newspaper Ginger River Review and a researcher at the Xinhua Institute, a think tank at the Al Jai Institute.
Maduro’s arrest shows Beijing that Trump is ready and willing to act on perceived threats, said William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at Crisis Group.
Trump’s strike on Maduro preceded months of threats over the Venezuelan leader’s alleged ties to drug cartels, including US airstrikes against alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. The Trump administration has not released any evidence that the more than 100 people killed in the boat attacks were drug smugglers or that the vessels were en route to the United States.
“It is a warning to Beijing that the US would be willing to resort to the military option in trying to achieve its goal of removing some of the political forces in Latin America,” Yang told Al Jazeera.
Qinduo Xu, a Chinese political analyst who hosts a current affairs program on the state-run CGTN television channel, agreed.
“This is a reminder to China that the US is a different power – naked raw power – and they throw away any kind of rules, international rules or rules as long as they see them their way,” he told Al Jazeera.
Experts like Grano say Maduro’s ouster will reinforce Beijing’s preference for a model of engagement in Latin America where it takes no responsibility for the existence of partner governments and leaders.
For the past 20 years, Venezuela has been Beijing’s closest partner in the region. China was the top destination for Venezuelan oil after the US imposed sanctions in 2019, and China has invested $4.8 billion in Venezuela over that period, according to Rhodium Group.
Beijing has also loaned the country billions of dollars, of which JPMorgan estimates Venezuela still owes between $13bn and $15bn, according to a recent Reuters report.
The two sides signed an “all-climate strategic partnership” in 2023 – a diplomatic designation Beijing has given to five other countries. The partnership, however, does not include security guarantees, meaning that China will lose its long-term reputation as a trusted diplomatic partner for failing to come to Venezuela’s defense militarily, experts said.
Gabriel Wildau, managing director of risk analysis company Teneo, told Al Jazeera that he expected Chinese officials to remain pragmatic even as the US sought to assert its political hegemony over its “sphere of influence”.
“Ultimately … Beijing is likely to keep the bigger picture in mind. China’s leadership does not see relations with Venezuela as a core interest, and maintaining the current US-China detente is a top priority,” he said. Trump is scheduled to visit China in April in an effort to resolve the ongoing trade war between the two superpowers that last year threatened to disrupt global trade with tit-for-tat tariffs.
“Trump’s raid on Venezuela suggests that Chinese investments in Latin America now face greater political risk due to US intervention in the region,” Gildau said. “However, Beijing will likely respond by finding ways to mitigate those risks rather than withdrawing from the region.”