While Arsenal have already booked their place in the last 16 of the Champions League, the remaining five Premier League clubs still have work to do in the final round of fixtures in the first phase of the league.
So, in order of the current standings in the league stage, what to do Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle, Chelseaand Manchester City should i join the gunners in the knockouts, what are the permutations?
First, a reminder that the top eight finishers in the league go straight into the last 16, while those between ninth and 16th are the knockout stage playoff seeds and those between 17th and 24th are the non-seeds in the knockout stage playoff.
Before the final round of matches, which takes place in 8 p.m. Wednesday, January 28we explain the status of each Premier League.
Arsenal (1st, 21 points) – Final group game at home to Kairat Almaty
By maintaining their 100 per cent league record by beating Inter Milan, Arsenal guaranteed a top two finish.
And if you’re not aware, it’s important because the new rule devised for this season means that a higher target gives you an easier knockout route in the Champions League in terms of home advantage.
Teams that finish in the first four positions in the Champions League table will receive domestic return matches in the last 16 and quarter-final rounds. And the the first two the teams in the Champions League table will also have an advantage in the second leg of the semi-finals.
Mikel Arteta’s side only need a draw from their last league game, at home to bottom of the league table Kairat Almaty, to secure top spot ahead of Bayern Munich, who are three points adrift on 18 points.
Arsenal will only finish second if they lose to Kairat Almaty and Bayern Munich win their last game, away to PSV Eindhoven, while equaling or bettering Arsenal’s goal difference of +18 to Bayern’s +13 in the final.
After points and goal difference, the positions in the table in the league phase are separated by total goals scored in the league, then by goals scored away, then by the number of wins, then by the number of away wins.
Liverpool (4th, 15 points) – Final group game at home against Qarabag
Victory in Marseille left Liverpool in a very strong position, not only to secure a place in the top eight, but quite possibly in the top four as well.
But first things first: with such a congested table and only three points separating third-placed Real Madrid and Juventus in 15th place, Liverpool must beat Qarabag to be sure of avoiding the play-offs. A draw could be enough, but Wednesday night will start with nine teams below Liverpool in the table, but they could also finish with 16 or more points.
So a win against Qarabag is a must. And if Liverpool win, they will aim for a top-four finish, with Anfield hosting the second leg of their final game and any quarter-finals.
Tottenham (5th, 14 points) – Final game in the group away to Frankfurt
Having taken 14 points from their seven games and finished fifth, Spurs are already guaranteed a place in the top 16, meaning the worst-case scenario is a seeded spot in the play-off round.
A win in their last game, away to Eintracht Frankfurt, would guarantee a place in the top eight and could see them finish third, which would secure a second leg in the round of 16 and the quarter-finals, under the new rule mentioned above.
But if they draw against Eintracht Frankfurt, eight different teams – including PSG – could go above Spurs with a win.
And if they lose to Eintracht Frankfurt, the number of different teams that can overtake them by 15 or 16 points rises to 10 – with Borussia Dortmund on 11th, also capable of beating Tottenham in the table with a win and a momentum of four goals.
Newcastle (7th, 13 points) – Final game in the group away to PSG
The bad news for Newcastle is that they are away to holders Paris Saint-Germain in their final group game.
The good news is that a 3-0 win over PSV means they start seventh next Wednesday night and are assured of already securing a first-half place among the play-off sides if they fall out of the top eight – meaning they will be away from home in the first leg of each play-off.
I it should not be overlooked that a victory in France would earn Newcastle even a place in the top four if two Real Madrid, Liverpool and Tottenham slip out.
The bottom line, however, is that Newcastle will also travel to Paris with little or no margin for error. With eight teams currently outside the top eight, but two points off Newcastle, it’s hard to see anything but a win securing automatic passage to the last 16. Game of the night next week? Without a doubt.
Chelsea (8th, 13 points) – Final game in the group away to Napoli
It was another illustration of how congested the table is that Moises Caicedo’s late winner against Paphos saw Chelsea move seven seats at the table.
But what goes up can also come down, and the fear for Chelsea ahead of the final round of fixtures, when they travel to Naples, is that, even if Galatasaray and Qarabag are ruled out as potential usurpers on goal difference, eight different teams can jump ahead of them if they lose to Napoli.
Nor is a draw likely to be enough to keep Chelsea in the top eight: were Chelsea to pick up a point in Napoli, they would finish ninth or lower if only one of Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta or Inter were to win, and Dortmund or Juventus won by two or more goals.
Man City (11th, 13 points) – Final group game at home against Galatasaray
Manchester City’s shock defeat at Bodo/Glimt left them outside the top eight and they need results on the road next Wednesday if they are to avoid the play-offs.
City, like Chelsea and Newcastle, are one of the eight teams currently on 13 points, but unlike Chelsea, Newcastle, as well as Atalanta and Sporting, will play at home next week.
At least that works in their favor. Unfortunately for City, recent form has not, and goal difference could be problematic even if they beat Galatasaray.
But considering that from Tottenham and PSG will points drop and Chelsea and Newcastle have tough tasks, win it should be enough for City to climb into the top eight.
Which teams have already qualified for the last 16?
- Arsenal – also secured a place in the top two
- Bayern Munich
When are the 2025/26 Champions League final stages?
Play-off draw: 30 January 2026
Knockout play-offs: 17-18 and 24-25 February 2026.
Round of 16: March 10-11 and 17-18, 2026
Quarter-finals: 7-8 and 14-15 April 2026
Semi-finals: 28-29. April and 5-6. May 2026
Final: Saturday, May 30, 2026
Where is the 2026 Champions League final being held?
The 2025/26 Champions League final will take place in Budapest at the Puskas Arena on Saturday, May 30.