About every two central banks in the south of the world plan to expand their gold reserves in the next 12 months, and new data shows that the currency most likely to pay is the US dollar.
result Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey 2025 publishing On Tuesday, the World Gold Council found geopolitical instability and Potential trade conflicts As the main reason for the transfer to emerging economies Gold Much faster than developed economies.
Ask more broadly what their expectations are, how their international peers will behave in the next 12 months, regardless of their country of origin, are almost consistent. Of the 15 central banks from developed economies and 58 central banks from emerging markets and dynamic economies or EMDE, 95% expect overall gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.
This helps explain why precious metals (though lack of yields vs other assets and their physical storage costs) are $3,446 per ounce, close to it April recordswhile the US dollar index is Lows in the past three years.
“The recent tariffs on trade policy implementation and commitments in the United States may reduce interest on reserves and assets denominated in US dollars as reserve currencies,” the report quoted an anonymous central bank in the report.
Of all the institutions surveyed, 48% of the global South expect their gold reserves to grow in the near future, compared with only 21% in advanced economies. Respondents argued Cancel the trend, which is conducive to the trend towards gold As tariffs and protectionism increase continues, any decline may gradually be due to the deep financial markets in the United States, relatively strong legal institutions, and the lack of obvious alternatives.
Tariffs raise concerns about the security of US dollar and Treasury bills
In 2024, the central bank purchased 1,045 metric tons of gold, accounting for about one-fifth of global demand. According to WGC figures, this is the third consecutive year they have accumulated over 1,000 tons, with an average of 400-500 tons over the past decade.
According to the survey, 72% of all respondents believe that global central banks will increase moderately over the next five years, while gold reserves in the previous year will be moderate. Another 4% of respondents came from non-advocacy economies entirely, with forecast returns going to be significant, up 1 percentage point from before.
“Central banks are expected to continue buying gold in search of ways to reduce their dependence on the dollar,” a central bank replied in an investigation. “There have been recent questions about the wind-helming situation of the USD/UST around tariff market developments, but the question of gold has been strengthened.”
By comparison, 45% expect moderate dollar holdings during the same period. Although this is an improvement from 49% in the same period last year, the number of answers to the dollar will surge significantly, up from the previous 13% to 28%.
Dollar’s 43% share of global central bank reserve assets is expected to decline
The most obvious difference in the reaction between developed economies and the global South is with debt trends and how strong the role of geopolitical tensions in cheering up.
When asked how much of the total global reserves will still be denominated in USD five years from now, central banks in non-developed economies expect a slight decline in current 43% compared to the current 43% share.
For comparison, gold accounts for only 19% of the total reserves, of which 15% are allocated to the euro and 2% of the Chinese yuan.
Among those who expect the share of reserves in USD has not changed, the relationship has been flipped: developed economies think the situation more than elsewhere.
“This has sparked an appetite for reporting the latest trends in central banks holdings, where we see the appetite for gold accumulation in central banks (emerging markets and dynamic economies)” the World Gold Council concluded.
