As Israel and Iran ended against each other Seventh straight dayThe region is anxious for possible comprehensive conflict. But there are question marks more than the capabilities of both sides to finance the efforts of the war.
Israel killed many of Iran on Friday Top military commander And the nuclear scientists and some of its atomic sites damaged. He has since damaged some parts of Iran Fossil fuel area?? In reply, Iran has carried out missile attacks in government buildings and metropolitan areas in Israel.
So Thursday240 people have been killed in the Israeli attacks, while at least 24 people have been killed due to Iranian termination.
But with this conflict, both countries have billions of dollars and their economic growth and long -term financial planning can cause anxiety.
What is the cost of Israel’s war?
From October 1 Since, the long -term military operations of Israel in Gaza and the recent increase with Iran have pushed the country in the most expensive period of its history in its history.
According to the January report of the Israeli Business Newspaper Calcalist, the consolidated price of the Gaza war was reached by 250 billion shells ($ 67.5 billion) by the end of 2024.
The Israeli News Outlets Yet News report of the June June 3 June June 3 June June, which is a former financial adviser of the Israeli Army, is estimated to be the first two days of battle with Iran. At that rate, the long -term struggle with Iran surpassed Israel within seven weeks by the end of the 201224 Gaza war.
Before the current growth with Iran, Israel had dramatically extended its protection budget during its multiple regional conflict and the war on Gaza. In 23, Billion increased from 2 billion shakes ($ 2 billion) to 224 to 99 billion ($ 28 billion). According to 2025 estimates, they can reach 118 billion shakes ($ 34 billion).
The Finance Ministry has set a 9.9 percent deficit of Israel’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this financial year, which is about 105 billion shakes ($ 6.6.6 billion). At a higher military expense they brought it to the exam.
How will the latest struggle affect Israel’s debt profile?
Despite the recent increase in tax revenue – 77 billion to 953 billion billion shakel ($ 888 billion to $ 244 billion) – Israel’s growth estimates have been reduced from 4.3 to 6.6 percent.
According to the business survey company Coffeesbudi, the deficiency of manpower, logistic disruption and business sentiment closed approximately 60,000 Israeli companies in 2024. In addition, the arrival of tourists is falling short of the October Pre-October 2023 level.
If there is a full war with Iran, those trends can be disturbed.
SP PD P Global Ratings on Tuesday warned the insecurity of the Israeli economy.
The agency mentions that the continuous Israeli war campaign, especially if you meet the constant and strategic Iranian response, could reduce Israel’s credit rating A to A. If that would have happened, it would increase the cost of borrowing and reduce the confidence of investors in the Israeli economy.
How has Iran’s fossil fuel industry affected?
In recent days, Iran’s oil exports have seen a dramatic decline. Total Iranian crude and condensate oil exports are forecast for the week ended Sunday. According to TIC Nalitics Firm KPLR data, exports this year is less than half of 242,000 BPDs this year.
Seriously, exports to Khargon island, from which Iran has exported more than 90 per cent of its oil, seems to have stopped completely since Friday. According to the LSEG satellite ship tracking data, there were no tankers on Monday on the Khare Island.
In 225, the United States Energy Information Administration Duministration (EIA) has created an average of 4.4 million BPD crude, China has been shown to be the main foreign buyer. Most of the products of oil Iran are for home use.
On Saturday, Iran partially suspended gas production after the Israeli missile hit the South Parse Gasfield in the Gulf country. South Parsha is the largest gasfield in the world shared by Iran with Qatar. It produces about 80 percent of the total gas output of Iran.
Until now, the limit for the loss of the South Pars field is unknown. In addition, Israel has targeted the Shahhar Ray Refinery outside Tehran as well as the fuel depot around the capital. The entire effect of this strike is unknown on the product.
How does an approval play against Iran?
1979. In the Islamic Revolution and the US Embassy, Iran has suffered US economic sanctions after the ocean crisis and subsequent nuclear program.
In an attempt to agree on Tehran on his nuclear program agreement, the then US President Barack Obama used several major economies around the world to reduce or stop the purchase of oil from Iran by using additional approval wave.
In 2015, these restrictions were relaxed after the US, Russia, China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union have suffered a joint comprehensive plan (JCPOA) agreement with the European Union.
Later in the year, Iran exported 2.8 million BPDs of petroleum products.
But in the first tenure of US President Donald Trump, in the first tenure of the presidency, the restrictions re -discussed and added more and many countries again pressured to stop buying Iranian crude. According to the EIA, Tehran earned only $ 50 billion in oil exports in 1 and 223, which is approximately 200,000 BPD crude exports, which is less than 5 percent of the 2016 level.
The result is that the approval has harassed Iran’s foreign currency income.
One of the few nations that trade with China and Tehran, the main buyer of his oil, is somewhat financially financially financially implicated by Iran.
Nevertheless, due to the reduction in revenue due to approval, the country has been deprived of long -term economic development and has affected the ability to solve the old infrastructure of Tehran.
Stating that Tehran’s situation is more challenging than the Iran-Iran-Iran war in the 1980s, President Masood Pezhekian has repeatedly highlighted the severity of the financial situation.
In March, he openly criticized the late US approval of the Tan Tan Tanker with Iranian oil.
What are the other challenges of Iran?
Iran faces other difficulties – energy and water shortage, its regional collapse currency and military difficulties – all expanded by approval.
Lack of investment, sloping natural gas production and inefficient irrigation, all generating energy blackouts and water deficiency.
Meanwhile, Iran’s currency, since the re -launch of approval in 2018, has been complied with the value of more than $ 2 percent against the dollar, according to foreign currency websites.
And the official inflation rate is about 40 percent, while some Iranian experts said it was actually more than 50 percent. “It is difficult to get accurate numbers,” said Hamze Al Gaud, a financial analyst of the political research institute TS Lombard.
“But what can we say that the approval of the year has increased the pressure of inflation, including the realization of Real’s devaluation. In turn, imports of goods from abroad are more expensive,” Al Gaud told Al Jazir.
In January, the news agency of Tasmana has quoted Ibrahim Sadgifer, Head of Iran’s Labor and Social Welfare Institute. 22 to 27 percent of the Iranian people are now below the poverty line.
Unemployment is ongoing 9.2 percent?? However, the Supreme Assembly of Iran’s representatives has represented the interests of the workers, the true figure of the people without access to subsistence-level work is estimated.
What can Iran spend?
According to Al Gaud, Tehran has a “relatively small budget for military purpose”. They have estimated that Iran’s GDP is spent to rescue 3 to 5 percent, which is approximately $ 12 billion.
Tehran has a $ 33 billion in foreign currency stocks that can come forward theoretically. But Al Gaud said: “Iran is on the backfoot. Using stocks for short -term military struggle will make them disabled for a long term.”
He said, “We have seen the ‘rally under the flag’ in recent days.
