Between Israel Current attacks An unprecedented decision by US President Donald Trump in Gaza and Iran Bomb on three Iranian nuclear sites The fear of regional conflict in the Middle East has increased even more.
At the end of the week, 1979. Islamic’s Islamic revolution ended the first known to the US forces against Iran since the west-west-west-Mohammed-Mohammed-Mohammed-Mohammed-Mohammed-Mohammed-Mohammed-Mohammed-Mohammad Raza Pahlavi.
Tehran has promised to answer and have created fear of growth.
At a meeting of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) organization in Turkey on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Arag said that the United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities and crossed the “very large red line”.
One of the ways to revenge for Iran is to close the Strait of Hormuz, an important trade route where one-fifth part of the world’s oil-fifth part-1 million barrels-and a lot of its gas is sent daily. This will increase energy prices.
So, what do we know about a strategic extract and in response to the US and Israeli aggression, it would be affordable to block Iran?
What is the Strait of Hormuz?
On the one hand there is a Strait of Hormuz between Oman and the United Arab Emirates and the other on the other. It connects the Persian Gulf beyond the Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
This is K33 km on his narrow point. (2 miles) is wide, the shipping lane is only wide (3 miles) in the direction, which makes it unsafe to attack.
Energy trade has been alert since Israel launched a wave of surprise attacks in Iran on June 1 June.
The US and Israel have targeted the main parts of Iran’s energy infrastructure, but so far there has been no direct interruption in marine activities in the region.
Nevertheless, the conflict between Israel and Iran increased before the US attacks on Saturday increased in the recent week.
Freight Intelligence Firm Zente said that the average spots increased by 55 percent per month till last Friday.
Who needs to be approved to close?
Iran had earlier threatened to shut down Hormuz’s suffering, but never pursued this threat.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council must take a final decision to close the seashore, informed Iran’s Press TV on Sunday that after the Parliament had supported these measures, after the Parliament informed.
However, the decision to close the seas is not yet finalized, as the Parliament has not approved the bill.
Instead, a member of the National Security Commission of Parliament, Asmel Kosari, was quoted in Iranian media: “Now (Parliament) has reached the conclusion that we should stop the suffering of Hormuz, but the final decision in this regard is the responsibility of the Supreme National Security Council.”
Asked if Tehran would close the waterway, FM Arghchi asked the question on Sunday and answered: “Iran has various options.”
Iran’s highest leader Ayatullah Ali Khamnai in the first comments after the end of the United States Said That Israel has made a “serious mistake” and “punishment”, but did not give a specific reference to both the Washington or the Strait of Hormuz.
How will the ban work in practice?
Iran can try to cover the mines across the Strait of Iran Hormuz.
He has previously used this method on several occasions that the country’s army or paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) can try to strike or capture the ships in the Gulf.
During the Iran-Iran War of 1980s, both sides were involved in the so-called “tanker war” in Persian Gulf. Iraq targeted Iranian ships and Iran attacked commercial ships, including Saudi and Kuwaiti oil tankers and even US Navy ships.
In the end of 2007, the tensions in Strait re -emerged in a series of encounters in Irani and the US Navis. This includes an event where Iranian speedboats contacted the US warship, though no shots have been removed.
In April 2023, the Iranian army Confiscated The advantage of the sweet crude tanker made by Chevrov in the Gulf of Oman. The ship was released for more than a year.
What does that mean for the global economy?
US State Secretary Marco Rubio on Sunday urged Iran to encourage Iran not to shut down Hormuz’s seawater after Washington ended the Iran’s nuclear site.
Talking to Fox News, Rubio said: “If they do this, this is financial suicide for them (close the seas). And we reserve the option to deal with it, but other countries should also pay attention to it. This will hurt the economy of other countries much worse than us.”
For starters, closing hormuose, Gulf Arab states – who criticize the Israeli attack – in war to protect their own professional interests.
China was also shocked by the closure of the seas.
The world’s second largest economy buys about 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports (approximately 1.6 million barrels per day), which are subject to international approval.
According to the Goldman Sax, oil prices can be more than $ 100 per barrel due to the blockade of the sea. This will increase the cost of the product, eventually affect customer prices-especially for energy-intensive items such as food, clothing and chemicals.
Countries around the world can experience inflation and low economic growth.
But history has proven that severe disruptions in global oil supply have been short -lived.
During the second Gulf War from March to May 1 Between, crude oil increased by 46 per cent by 46 percent. But in the early days of the US -led military campaign, prices did not fall as soon as possible.
Similarly, on February 7, a barrel of oil prices increased from $ 1 to $ 1, as Russia invaded Ukraine, but by mid-August, prices returned to their pre-pre-east level.
This relatively quick vomiting of oil prices spikes is mainly due to global spare production capacity at that time and demanding an increase in rapid oil prices.
